季度總結 年上半年汽車業誰輸誰贏

The first half of 2014 has unfolded in unpredictable ways: House majority leader Eric Cantor lost a primary election, the U.S. soccer team made it to the Round of 16 in the World Cup, and “Game of Thrones” was actually bloodier than the year before.

2014年上半年發生了很多出人意料的事，比如衆議院多數黨領袖埃裏克·坎託丟掉了初選，美國足球隊歷史性地殺進了世界盃16強，新一季的《權力的遊戲》（Game of Thrones）比上一季還要血腥。

And so it went in auto sales: Many results were unexpected. In an overall economic environment that was surprisingly positive, some segments, brands, and manufacturers glistened while others faltered. Despite being battered by an epidemic of recalls, General Motors GM 0.53% posted better sales than expected, while Ford F 0.98% , celebrating the elevation of its new young CEO, fared worse. Sales of most luxury cars accelerated but Cadillac, a brand still in recovery, fell back. Subaru shined while Mini moped.

上半年也是汽車業奇峯迭起的六個月，很多結果都出人意料。今年經濟大環境總體非常樂觀，有些細分市場、品牌和汽車廠商的表現非常搶眼，但也有一些折戟沉沙的例子。儘管上半年接連遭遇了一連串召回事件，但通用汽車（General Motors）上半年的銷量卻超出了預期。相比之下，剛剛換了新帥的福特（Ford）則表現得差強人意。大多數豪華品牌的銷量都有所加速，只有仍然處於恢復期的凱迪拉克（Cadillac）不升反降。另外，斯巴魯（Subaru）交出了一份耀眼的成績單，而Mini則表現不佳。

After looking over the numbers and reading the post-game analyses, here are some contradictions, mysteries, and surprises that confronted industry observers from January to June.

在查看了銷量數字、讀過了馬後炮式的分析文章之後，行業觀察人士們面前仍然擺着一些令人感到矛盾、驚訝或不解的問題。

Sales: With sales running at an annual rate above 16 million cars and trucks and headed toward their best finish since 2006, optimism is the prevailing motive News quoted one securities analyst musing that sales might reach 18 million by 2017. Others believe that sales have peaked for this cycle and need to take a breather before heading higher. They pointed in particular at the growing popularity of six, seven, and even eight-year loans that could leave customers owing money when they go to trade in their old car for a new one.

銷量：隨着汽車年銷量猛漲到1600萬輛以上，而且今年很有希望成爲2006年以來汽車賣得最火的一年，樂觀已經成了汽車業的主流情緒。《汽車新聞》（Automotive News ）引用一位證券分析師的話稱，2017年美國的汽車銷量有望達到1800萬輛。也有人認爲，這一輪的汽車銷售週期已經走到了頂峯，恐怕要歇一歇才能爬上更高的紀錄。有些分析師還特別提到了時下越來越流行的車輛以舊換新貸款，有的能貸六七年甚至八年。

Recalls: GM sold 267,461 cars and trucks in June, far exceeding expectations and temporarily silencing its critics. It seems that the cascade of recent announcements from GM and other manufacturers has created “recall fatigue” among new car buyers. Besides, most of the recalled cars are older models that don’t show up in new car sales.

召回：今年六月，通用汽車一共賣出了267,461臺轎車和卡車，遠遠超過了此前的預期，也暫時平息了批評人士的口舌。貌似最近通用和其他廠商發出的一連串召回聲明已經讓新車買家形成了“召回疲勞”，反而不怎麼往心裏去了。另外，大多數涉及召回的車型都是舊款而非新款，也許也是沒有影響到銷量的原因之一。

Hybrids: The number of hybrid models has increased every year, from 2009 through this year—it now totals 47—but their market share has not kept pace, according to Tom Libby, veteran IHS Automotive analyst. Hybrid share in the first six months actually declined from last year, despite an increase in model count. Libby doesn’t say, but my guess is that the number of buyers willing to pay a premium for gas savings is shallower than expected and it will take another leap in gas prices to jump-start sales. Consumers may also be wary of hybrid mileage claims. Both Hyundai and Ford admit to publishing overly optimistic mileage claims for their hybrid models.

混合動力車型：據IHS　Automotive公司的分析師湯姆o利比介紹，從2009年開始，市面上的混合動力車型逐年遞增，如今已經有多達47款在售，但它們的市場份額卻沒能實現同樣迅猛的增幅。今年頭六個月，混動車型的市場份額相比去年同期有所下跌，只是車型數量有所增長而已。雖然利比並沒有說，但據我本人猜測，願意爲省幾塊汽油錢而多花很多錢買混動車的消費者可能沒有此前人們預想的那麼多。要想大幅促進混動車的銷量，前提是汽油價格必須大幅提高。另外，現代（Hyundai）和福特也都承認他們標榜的混動車型的油耗其實是有水分的。

Trucks: Pickup truck sales are well off the pace of their peak year in 2005, says independent analyst Warren Browne, and he doesn’t see them climbing up to their former levels for another three or four years. “Unfortunately, we are not close to past peak economic realities, when real GDP growth averaged more than 3%, housing starts were above 1.7 million units and monthly paystubs allowed large-pickup intenders to become consumers,” says Browne. “We are going to have to wait until the next sales cycle, probably 2017-2018, to surpass the 2005 sales peak.” That’s bad news for the Detroit Three, for whom pickup trucks are an outsize source of profits.

皮卡：獨立分析師沃倫o布朗尼指出，雖然2005年創下了皮卡銷量的紀錄，但今年的皮卡銷售速度遠遠地超過了2005年，不過布朗尼並不認爲皮卡銷時不時還會保持三到四年的高速增長。他說：“不幸的是，我們並不接近上一次銷量高峯時的經濟狀況。當年實際GDP的增長率平均超過3%，新建房屋超過1700間，當時的月薪水平使大型皮卡的愛好者也能夠成爲皮卡的買主。因此，我們要等到下一個銷售週期——可能是2017年到2018年，才能超過2005年的銷售高峯。”這對底特律三巨頭來說不是並不是一個好消息，因爲皮卡業務對“三巨頭”來說都是重要的利潤來源。

Segments: Compact crossovers climbed another 13% to 1.1 million by Automotive News’ calculation (think Honda CR-V,) while midsize sedans shrank 3% to 1.3 million (think Toyota Camry). How long before these lines cross and baby SUVs become the most popular body style?

細分市場：根據《汽車新聞》的計算，今年上半年，緊湊跨界車型（如本田CR-V）的銷量上升了13%，達到110萬臺。中型家轎【如豐田凱美瑞（Toyota Camry）】的銷量下降了3%，爲130萬臺。話說起來，跨界和小型SUV到底是什麼時候變成了最受歡迎的車型？

Sports cars: Subaru is the king of all-wheel drive vehicles and wields a big stick in rallying, but has a hard time selling sports cars. It moved 4298 copies of its BRZ, jointly developed with Toyota, while Scion’s version of the same car, called the FR-S, found 7662 buyers in the same period.

跑車：斯巴魯儼然已經成爲全驅車型中的王者，即便這樣，它的跑車銷量也是差強人意。今年上半年，斯巴魯與豐田合作研發的BRZ跑車只賣出4298臺，同一款車的Scion版（又叫FR-S）只賣出了7662臺。

Brands: Fiat Chrysler’s Jeep saw its sales jump an almost unbelievable 45%, on the strength of the compact Cherokee introduced last year. Jeep sold 103,397 more vehicles than in 2013, 80,432 of them Cherokees. New models weren’t enough to lift FCA’s Chrysler, however. Its sales fell 14% despite the arrival of a new 200. Chrysler has been designated FCA’s volume brand, but it is currently being outsold by BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Mazda.

品牌：歸功於今年新推出的緊湊型SUV 切諾基（Cherokee），菲亞特-克萊斯勒（Fiat Chrysler’s）的Jeep品牌的銷量令人難以置信地猛增了45%。Jeep在2013年一共賣出了103,397臺車，其中有80,432輛都是切諾基。然而僅憑Jeep新車型的神勇還不足以提升克萊斯勒的表現。儘管新克萊斯勒200也已到店銷售，但克萊斯勒的銷量還是下降了14%。克萊斯勒已被認定爲FCA的“走量”品牌，但它的銷量還是不及寶馬（BMW）、奔馳（Mercedes-Benz）和馬自達（Mazda）。

Import brands: Kia, the newest full-line manufacturer in the U.S. car scene, proved again that it is a fast learner. Its first-half sales ran 7.9% ahead of a year ago—nearly twice the industry average—and they weren’t all Souls and Rios. As analyst Jessica Caldwell points out, Kia’s top of the line model K900, sells for more than double the $26,000 of its range topper from a decade ago, the Amanti. I drove a $66,400 K900 last week, powered by a big 5.0 liter V-8 and loaded with advanced electronics. Except for the badge on the hood, it was indistinguishable from cars selling for $20,000 or more.

進口品牌：最近進入美國汽車市場的韓國起亞（Kia）再一次證明了它是個快速學習型的企業。今年上半年，它在美國的汽車銷量比去年同期提高7.9%——幾乎是行業平均水平的兩倍。而且，它也並非只靠秀爾（Soul）和RIO這種小車搞“薄利多銷”。正如汽車網站分析師傑西卡o考德維爾指出的那樣，10年前起亞的旗艦Amanti賣到26,000美元，而如今起亞的新旗艦K900的價格已然是它的兩倍。上週我試駕了一輛價值66,400美元的K900，它搭載了一部5.0升V8發動機，還安裝了先進的電子系統，從裏到外的感覺都與其它20,000美元以上的車型截然不同。

Volkswagen, which can do little wrong in Europe, showed once again that it is a slow learner when it crosses the Atlantic. Still unused to the idea that Americans like change, it has been marketing the same lineup of cars now for several years, and has seen sales fall 7% since the beginning of the year. It has vowed to speed up, but progress is slow. The seventh generation Golf coming to the U.S this fall made its debut two years ago in Europe.

在歐洲稱霸一方的德國大衆汽車（Volkswagen）再次證明了一旦越過大西洋，它就會變成一個遲緩的學習者。大衆汽車至今不明白美國人是個喜歡變化的民族，它現在的生產線依然是好幾年以前的生產線，它在美國的銷量也比去年同期下跌了7%。雖然大衆立志要加速在美國的發展進程，但進展卻一直非常緩慢。將於今年秋天進入美國的第七代高爾夫（Golf）早在兩年前就已經在歐洲亮過相了。

Overseas markets: China continues to sizzle while Brazil cools off. Slow economic growth and higher interest rates along with, no doubt, football fever – soccer to you – kept Brazilians out of new car showrooms. Its motor vehicle sales fell 10% in June, finishing off a worse-than-expected first half in which sales fell 7.1%. That’s bad news for GM and VW, which both have big operations there. In China, the world’s largest car market, passenger vehicle sales are up 11.2 percent to 9.63 million for the first six months, though sales cooled in June. Domestic brands continue to lose ground to Western makers and now account for only a little more than one-third of the market. That’s good news for GM and VW, the two largest sellers there.

海外市場：雖然巴西市場有所冷卻，但中國市場依然炙手可熱。經濟放緩、利率升高再加上一心看球等原因，使巴西人民今年無心光顧汽車展廳。今年6月，巴西的汽車銷量下跌10%，超過了此前預期的7.1%。這對通用和大衆等在巴西投入重金建立運營機構的大廠商來說是個壞消息。而在中國這個全球最大的汽車市場，今年上半年乘用車的銷量上漲了11.2%，達到963萬臺。不過到了6月，銷量也是有所萎縮。中國國產品牌在西方品牌面前繼續丟城失地，目前僅佔中國市場三分之一多一點的份額。不過這對通用和大衆這兩個中國最大的汽車銷售商來說卻是好消息。

Ultra-luxury: Rolls-Royce sales boil around the world but are only lukewarm in the U.S. Rolls, which is owned by BMW, says customers in Europe and Asia boosted sales 33% in the first half to 1968. That’s in sharp contrast to the skinny increase in the U.S., where One Percenters bought only 450 Phantom, Ghosts, and Wraiths vs. 426 last year. The average Phantom owner has a net worth of $30 million, which is a good thing since the Phantom stickers for $407,500 and can be optioned up to $500,000.

超豪華車型：勞斯萊斯（Rolls-Royce）的車型在全球都賣得異常火爆，唯獨在美國市場不溫不火。寶馬旗下的這個超豪華品牌日前表示，今年上半年，歐洲和亞洲市場貢獻了該品牌全球銷量的33%，即1968臺。而勞斯萊斯在美國的增長微乎其微。今年上半年，勞斯萊斯在美國只賣出450輛，勉強超過了去年的426輛。每位勞斯萊斯幻影的車主至少有3000萬美元的身家，這對勞斯萊斯來說也是件好事。因爲每輛幻影的起價就是407,500美元，選裝版甚至可以賣到50萬美元以上。