社會作家不應該向亞馬遜集團宣戰

Agroup of leading authors, including Donna Tartt, Stephen King and Malcolm Gladwell, has attempted to intervene in the dispute between publisher Hachette and retailing behemoth Amazon. Observers of the music industry are familiar with this tactic; prominent musicians are persuaded that the interests of music publishers are aligned with their own. The reality is very different.

包括唐娜•塔特(Donna Tartt)、斯蒂芬•金(Stephen King)以及馬爾科姆•格拉德威爾(Malcolm Gladwell)在內的一批知名作家試圖干涉出版商阿歇特(Hachette)和零售業巨頭亞馬遜(Amazon)之間的爭端。音樂產業的觀察者對這套戰術很熟悉，那些知名的音樂家們相信自己與音樂出版商的利益一致。然而實情非常不同。

Music and print media are among the industries most fundamentally changed by digitisation. When Amazon likens the change to the arrival of the paperback, it makes a grave underestimation; the invention of printing is a better analogy. Costs and barriers to entry in distribution have almost disappeared.

音樂和印刷媒體都是被數字化從根本上改變的行業。亞馬遜把這種改變比作平裝本的出現，實在是嚴重低估了數字化的影響；與印刷術的發明相提並論還更貼切些。分銷的成本和進入壁壘幾乎已蕩然無存。

Established companies in all industries are inhibited in their response to radical change by vested interests inherent in their existing business models. Music publishers tried to block new technologies, and were marginalised by better-run businesses:

各行各業的公司在迴應鉅變時，都難免受到現有商業模式中的既得利益的桎梏。音樂出版商曾企圖阻止新技術，結果被蘋果(Apple)、沃爾瑪(Walmart)和Spotify等運營更好的企業邊緣化。圖書出版商最初在迴應電子書時，最初拿出了紙質書的拙劣複製品。當這些書銷量不佳時，他們便退而維護現狀。

Apple, Walmart and Spotify. Book publishers responded initially with dismal reproductions on screen of their printed books. When these failed to sell, they retired into protecting the status quo.

改變遊戲規則的是硬件製造商，他們生產出了閱讀體驗可與紙質媲美的顯示屏。很快這些顯示屏的閱讀體驗將更好。而亞馬遜的配送能力使其能夠挑戰出版商的頑固反抗。

The game changer was the ability of hardware manufacturers to produce displays that provide a reading experience almost as pleasant as the printed page. Soon they will be better. Amazon’s distribution capability enabled it to challenge publishers’ recalcitrance.

圖書出版商的地位一直建立在對分銷渠道的准入控制之上。有抱負的作者一貫以“發表作品”爲理想。圖書出版公司除了決定要出版哪本圖書，傳統上還提供一系列配套服務：對底層文學事業的鑑定、支持和資助，手稿的編輯，終稿作品的營銷和推廣。

The role of the book publisher has been based on control of access to channels of distribution. The ambition of the aspirant author has always been to “get published”. Along with the decision as to what should be published, the company has traditionally provided a collection of associated services: identification, support and finance of the underlying literary project, editing of the draft manuscript, and marketing and promotion of the finished work.

但這些主宰着出版業的大集團被一羣愛錢勝過愛書的人經營着。爲了最大化分銷渠道准入控制環節的營收，出版商削減了配套服務。如今的暢銷書排行榜上充斥着以往暢銷作品的效仿之作：足球運動員回憶錄、名廚菜譜、吸血鬼小說和以女性爲目標羣體的情色文學。

But the large conglomerates that have come to dominate publishing are run by people who love money more than they love books. These support activities have been cut back in the interest of maximising the revenue, from control of access to distribution. Today’s bestseller lists are filled with imitations of books that have already been successful; footballer’s memoirs, celebrity chefs, vampires and female-oriented erotic literature.

這樣的出版商不適合新環境。我不知道紙質書在20年後的存在程度。但電子書的銷量足以說明，阿歇特或企鵝蘭登書屋(Penguin Random House)這樣的公司已不再是出版圖書的決定性因素。企鵝蘭登部分股權爲培生集團(Pearson)持有，該集團還擁有英國《金融時報》。

Such publishers are ill-placed for the new environment. I do not know the extent to which the printed book will remain extant in two decades. But enough ebooks are already being sold to signify that being published by a company such as Hachette or Penguin Random House (part-owned by Pearson, which also owns the Financial Times) is no longer critical.

影響一本書成與敗的是見解的高低、基礎項目的執行力、編輯的水平以及營銷與推廣的效果。

What matters to the success or failure of a book is the quality of conception and execution of the underlying project, the competence of the editing, and the effectiveness of marketing and promotion.

作者自行出版的新書大多通不過上述考驗，尤其是它們往往明顯缺乏稱職的編輯。但這種情況現在同樣存在於老牌出版商出品的許多圖書。

Most new self-published titles fail these tests; in particular, the lack of a competent editor is often obvious. But this is also true of many titles now published by established houses.

某些現有的出版商靠着爲作者提供配套服務的優勢還能興旺下去。但大多數出版商將開始走下坡路。精明且懂行的作家們（往往在代理人的幫助下）將能夠利用比傳統版稅模式高得多的銷售分成，來購買編輯和營銷技能。音樂界的教訓之一是，營收的天平已從發行權轉向現場演出和商品化。類似音樂界在某種程度上已經發生的變化，對作家的大筆預付款項將被針對未來營收流的證券化取而代之。圖書項目有可能獲得風投資金，或許會從大學教科書和從業者手冊開始。

Some existing publishers will thrive on the basis of their strengths in author support services. But most will not. Savvy and well-advised authors, often helped by agents, will be able to buy editing and marketing skills with the receipts from a much larger share of the sales proceeds than the traditional royalty model allows. One of the lessons of the new world of music is that the balance of revenues has shifted from publishing rights to live performance and merchandising. The blockbuster advance for authors will be replaced, as has to some degree happened in music, by securitisation of future revenue streams. Venture capital funding of book projects – perhaps starting with university textbooks and practitioner handbooks – is possible.

讀者會懷念傳統書店，還有圖書館的舒適氛圍。我們對技術過時的蒸汽機車和燭光晚餐有種懷舊情感。改變極少是不折不扣的好事。但簽署公開信的作者錯過了圖書業發展最重大的商業後果：當今的作者置身於他/她應有的地位：負責。