土耳其國內權鬥危及歐盟難民協議

A pivotal deal to staunch the flow ofmigrants from Turkey into the EU, masterminded by German chancellor AngelaMerkel, was thrown into doubt yesterday after the resignation of Turkey’spro-European prime minister.

土耳其親歐洲的總理昨日宣佈辭職，此舉給德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)打造的一項旨在阻止移民從土耳其流入歐盟的關鍵協議帶來變數。

Ahmet Davutoglu, who personally negotiatedthe deal with Ms Merkel, quit following a power struggle with President RecepTayyip Erdogan. The premier’s departure imperils an agreement credited withsharply reducing the influx of asylum-seekers into the EU — and rescuing MsMerkel from a potentially fatal political backlash.

曾當面與默克爾談判達成這份協議的艾哈邁德•達武特奧盧(Ahmet Davutoglu，上圖)，因爲與總統雷傑普•塔伊普•埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)發生權鬥而辭職。達武特奧盧的離去將危及這項被認爲大幅減少涌入歐盟的難民——且拯救默克爾於一場潛在致命政治反彈——的協議。

The deal enables the EU to send migrantsarriving illegally on the Greek islands back to Turkey in exchange for aneasing of visa requirements on Turkish visitors and financial aid. However, MrErdogan has responded coolly to the agreement and has shown increasinghostility towards the EU.

根據該協議，歐盟可將通過非法途徑抵達希臘諸島的移民遣返回土耳其，作爲交換，歐盟將放寬對土耳其遊客的簽證要求，並向該國提供財政援助。然而，埃爾多安對該協議反應冷淡，而且對歐盟表現出越來越強烈的敵意。

Without reforms to Turkey’s anti-terrorismand anti-corruption laws, which Mr Erdogan has angrily resisted, Brussels maybe unable to grant some of the most important concessions in the deal — a movethat Ankara has already warned would cancel its obligation to curtail refugeecrossings into Greece.

如果土耳其不改革國內的反恐及反腐敗法律（埃爾多安對此憤怒抵制），布魯塞爾方面可能無法做出該協議中一些最重要的讓步，而安卡拉方面已警告稱，這進而將使其沒有義務限制難民過境土耳其進入希臘。

“We’ve made good progress on the agreement with Turkey,” Ms Merkelsaid in Rome yesterday. “The European Union, or at least Germany and Italy, areprepared and stand by the commitments that we’ve agreed to. We hope that ismutual.” To keep the pact on track, Ankara must still meet several benchmarks,including revisions to its anti-terrorism legislation to ensure civilliberties. But Mr Erdogan has been loath to support them. EU officials are nowconcerned that Ankara will backtrack on reform commitments.

“我們與土耳其在落實該協議方面取得了良好進展，”默克爾昨日在羅馬錶示，“歐盟——至少德國和意大利——準備履行並堅守我們做出的承諾。我們希望對方也能做到。”要落實該協議，安卡拉方面還必須達到多項標杆，包括修訂反恐法以保障公民自由。但埃爾多安不願支持這些修訂。歐盟官員現在擔憂安卡拉將放棄改革承諾。

“It’s certainly not good news for us,”said one EUofficial. “Erdogan would be very ill-advised to throw this out of the windowand think this is now a matter of horse-trading. He thinks it’s 50 percent wriggle room, and the rest is all arm-wrestling.”

“這對我們來說肯定不是好消息，”一名歐盟官員表示，“如果埃爾多安隨隨便便撕毀這一協議，並認爲這是一個政治交易問題，那將是很不明智的。他現在以爲這其中有50%的迴旋餘地，剩下的則靠掰手腕較勁。”

Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat atthe Carnegie Europe think-tank, said Mr Erdogan has been “much morecategorical” in resisting changes to the anti-terrorism law. He added that withthe ruling AK Party and parliament in disarray, the chances of reform beingpassed in time for a June deadline was becoming ever more unlikely.

土耳其前外交官、現在任職於卡內基歐洲智庫的錫南•于爾根(Sinan Ulgen)表示，埃爾多安一直“相當明確地”抵制修訂反恐法。他補充說，隨着執政的正義與發展黨(AK Party)和議會陷入混亂，改革在6月的最後期限前獲得通過的機會已變得越來越渺茫。

Mr Davutoglu, in office less than twoyears, had sparred for months with Mr Erdogan on issues including the detentionof academics and journalists, talks with Kurdish separatists and theappointment of an independent central bank governor, as well as relations withthe EU.

上任不到兩年的達武特奧盧幾個月來與埃爾多安在多個問題上矛盾不斷，包括拘留學者和記者、與庫爾德分離主義勢力進行談判、任命獨立的央行行長以及與歐盟的關係。

His departure leaves Mr Erdogan in theunassailable position of Turkey’s most powerful politician . The AK party will now hold anextraordinary congress on May 22 to choose a new party leader.

達武特奧盧的去職將進一步鞏固埃爾多安作爲土耳其最具實權政治人物的地位。正義與發展黨將於5月22日召開特別代表大會，選舉新的黨魁。