中國與巴西"天作之合"的隱憂

When Chinese premier Li Keqiang swept through Brazil this week, he and his Brazilian counterpart, President Dilma Rousseff, sought to make an impression by unveiling deals worth $53bn.

中國總理李克強本週“席捲”巴西時，與巴西政府首腦迪爾瑪•羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)總統用公佈一攬子價值530億美元協議的方式，給人們留下了深刻印象。

But much of this package consisted of old announcements reheated to look more appetising, especially to a Brazilian public worried about sinking economic growth.

但在這一整套協議當中，有不少是早先就已宣佈過的，這次只是“回爐加熱”了一下，以便讓它們看起來比較“美味”——尤其是對擔心本國經濟增長下滑的巴西民衆而言。

Take the exciting news that China would lift an embargo on Brazilian beef, for instance. Introduced in 2012 because of fears over “mad cow” disease, China and Brazil first signalled the lifting of the embargo on Brazilian beef exports last July. They then announced it again in December. Now they are promising it will be fully lifted by next month.

比如說下面這條令人興奮的消息：中國將解除對巴西牛肉的進口禁令。出於對瘋牛病的擔心，中國2012年出臺了這一禁令。去年7月，中國與巴西首次表示將解除這一禁令。去年12月，兩國重申了這一點。現在，雙方承諾將不晚於下月全面解除該禁令。

The relationship between Brazil and China should be a match made in heaven with the potential to be one of the defining bilateral trade partnerships of the 21st century.

中巴關係應以“天作之合”來形容，而且有潛力成爲21世紀具有決定性影響的雙邊貿易合作關係之一。

Already an agricultural power, Brazil is one of the few countries with the potential to meet China and the rest of Asia’s growing demand for food in the coming decades.

已然成爲農業強國的巴西，是爲數不多的幾個有潛力在未來幾十年裏滿足中國及亞洲其他地區日益增長的糧食需求的國家之一。

Latin America’s largest economy, meanwhile, urgently needs to build up its infrastructure, whether it is road, rail, ports and airports or its electricity network. In this China is uniquely positioned to help as another continent-sized nation with expertise in infrastructure and excess industrial capacity looking for a market.

與此同時，這個拉美最大經濟體迫切需要建設本國的基礎設施，無論是公路、鐵路、港口和機場，還是電網。在這方面，中國擁有獨特的優勢，因爲與巴西一樣幅員遼闊的中國既有基建方面的專長，又有正在尋找市場的過剩工業產能。

China also has a high savings rate but needs to develop its domestic market while Brazil saves little but has a thriving consumer and services economy.

中國儲蓄率較高，但國內市場有待開發，而巴西儲蓄率很低、但有蓬勃發展的消費和服務型經濟。

The synergies between the two are self-evident but realising them has not been easy. The difficulty in reaching and executing agreements was evident in some of the tortured language in this week’s announcements.

兩國間的協同效應不言而喻，但要實現雙贏也並非易事。協議的達成和執行中存在的困難，在本週公告的部分含糊措辭中體現得很明顯。

The prize for the vaguest formulation went to Chinese bank ICBC and Petrobras, which signed “an agreement to co-operate to create a long-term relationship”. In another, China ExIm Bank reached a memorandum of understanding to “consider” lending money to two Chinese companies to “facilitate” their furnishing of shipping services to Vale, the Brazilian iron ore exporter. Vale and one of the Chinese companies, Cosco, also revealed a deal for the sale of bulk iron ore carriers that they first signalled last September.

最含糊的表述來自中國工商銀行(ICBC)與巴西國家石油公司(Petrobras)，雙方簽署了“一項合作協議，以建立一種長期關係”。在另一則公告中，中國進出口銀行(China ExIm Bank)與兩家中資企業達成了一份諒解備忘錄，“考慮”貸款給後者以“便於”它們爲巴西鐵礦石出口商淡水河谷(Vale)提供航運服務。淡水河谷與其中一家中資企業——中遠集團(Cosco)——還披露了一筆出售大型礦砂船的交易的情況。雙方曾與去年9月首次提到這筆交易。

Other not-so-new announcements included Chinese loans to state-owned oil company Petrobras and a Chinese order for 40 Brazilian Embraer aircraft.

其他不算太新的公告包括，中國向巴西國家石油公司提供貸款並向巴西航空工業公司(Embraer)訂購40架飛機。

Also vague was a plan to study a railway linking Brazil’s Atlantic coast to a Pacific port in Peru.

同樣含糊的還有一項計劃——啓動對連接巴西大西洋海岸與祕魯太平洋港口的鐵路的可行性研究。

To be sure, the incentives are increasing for China and Brazil to make headway on investment and Chinese companies have made some inroads. State Grid, the Chinese electricity transmission company, has a strong presence in Brazil while Chinese oil companies have invested in the Latin American country’s rich offshore oil blocks.

可以肯定，推動中國與巴西在投資方面進一步合作的激勵因素正在增加，而且中國企業已經取得了一些進展。中國輸電企業國家電網(State Grid)在巴西擁有衆多項目，而中國石油企業已投資於巴西儲量豐富的海上石油區塊。

Overall, the results are patchy. Two-way exports have soared from as little as $2bn in 2000 to $78bn last year, according to figures from the Brazilian trade secretariat compiled by Eurasia Group. But Chinese foreign direct investment in Brazil has varied wildly, from $395m in 2010 to $110m in 2013 before jumping to $840m in 2014.

總體來看，合作的成果並非盡善盡美。歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)彙編的、源自巴西外貿祕書處(SECEX)的數據顯示，巴中雙邊出口額已從2000年的區區20億美元飆升至去年的780億美元。但中國對巴西的直接投資波動很大，先是從2010年的3.95億美元下降至2013年的1.1億美元，後又猛增至2014年的8.4億美元。

Both sides need to be more flexible. China will have to relax conditions that analysts say it attaches to projects, such as the use of Chinese made equipment or Chinese labour. Brazil needs to reduce bureaucracy and embrace Chinese business, which it still views with suspicion.

雙方都需要採取更靈活的政策。分析師指出，中國需要放寬一些項目的附加條件，比如必須使用中國製造的設備或中國工人。巴西則需要減少官僚作風，擁抱那些它仍以懷疑眼光看待的中國企業。

A good start for Brazil might be the relaxation of a ban on foreign purchases of tracts of farmland larger than 5,000ha that many thought was directed at the Chinese, or an increase in taxes on cars with high imported content, again thought to have been aimed at the Chinese.

對巴西來說，一個良好的開端或許是放鬆禁止單一外國人或外國企業購買5000公頃以上巴西土地的禁令（很多人認爲這條禁令是針對中國人的），或者取消對那些由高比例進口部件裝配的汽車的加稅（也被認爲是針對中國人的）。

Until such steps are taken, no amount of reheating of old news will serve to freshen up a relationship whose great potential is being left to spoil.

如果不採取這些措施，這一雙邊關係就會喪失潛力，回爐再多的舊聞也無法讓其煥發新生。