中國仍將嚴重依賴中東石油

Projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration find the U.S. will drastically reduce its reliance on imported oil, in particular from the Middle East, over the next two decades, a potential victory as the U.S. has long looked to slash reliance on resources from a volatile region half a world away.

美國能源情報署(Energy Information Administration)的預測發現，未來二十年美國將大幅減少對進口石油特別是來自中東地區的石油的依賴。這是一場潛在的勝利，長期以來美國一直在試圖降低對來自一個和美國相隔半個地球之遠的動盪地區能源的依賴。

China's story is precisely the opposite.

中國的情況恰好相反。

As the U.S. looks closer to home to satisfy energy demand, China is expected to remain heavily reliant on Middle East oil. Beijing is already carving business, diplomatic and potential military in-roads through the region in a bid to shore up ties with traditional U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia as well as emerging producers such as Iraq.

就在美國進一步依靠國內供應來滿足能源需求之際，預計中國仍將嚴重依賴中東石油。中國政府正在從商業、外交甚至可能包括軍事等角度對中東地區施加重要影響，加強同沙特阿拉伯等美國傳統盟友以及伊拉克等新興能源生產國的關係。

Additionally, China is looking to imports from the Middle East and elsewhere to compensate for gradually slowing growth of Iran imports and supply concerns related to potentially long-term political instability in Sudan.

此外，中國正在考慮從中東和其它地區進口石油，以彌補伊朗出口至中國的石油數量逐漸減少所造成的缺口，同時緩解中國因蘇丹可能發生長期政治動盪而對其石油供給產生的擔憂。

In short, analysts say, even as Beijing fears a growing reliance on Middle East crude, the rate of its economic growth leaves policy makers few options. As a result, China is settling in for a long-term economic and political presence in a region that for decades has overshadowed U.S. foreign policy.

總之，分析人士說，北京在擔心對中東原油日趨依賴的同時，中國的經濟增長速度卻沒有給決策者留下多少選擇。這造成的結果就是，中國正在適應在這一地區構建長期經濟和政治存在的現實。數十年來，中東地區的局勢一直在影響美國的外交政策。

To be sure, China has taken some small steps to diversify its sources of energy away from Middle East oil. Crude imports from Venezuela, for example, more than doubled between 2009 and 2011 to about 231,000 barrels a day, according to China customs data. Additionally, China is aggressively working to exploit potentially vast deepwater reserves of oil and gas beneath the South China Sea while partnering with foreign energy companies to develop shale deposits in the country's west.

可以肯定的是，中國已經採取了一些小規模的措施促進能源來源的多樣化。中國海關數據顯示，來自委內瑞拉的進口原油數量在2009年至2011年間翻了一番還多，達到了每天約231,000桶。此外，中國正在準備積極開發南中國海(South China Sea, 中國稱南海)海底的大量深水石油和天然氣資源，同時與外國能源公司合作，開發中國西部的頁岩資源。

About 50% of China＊s crude imports is now sourced from the Middle East, according to customs data, and analysts say it's unlikely that number will fall dramatically over the medium term.

海關數據顯示，如今中國原油進口總量中約有50%來自中東地區。分析人士說，從中期看，這一比例不太可能大幅下降。

China is far more dependent on foreign energy sources than the U.S., but its ability to diversify is limited by its breakneck rate of growth, said Ben Simpfendorfer, managing director of Silk Road Associates, a Hong Kong-based economic consultancy.

總部設在香港的諮詢機構絲路顧問公司(Silk Road Associates)的董事總經理貝哲民(Ben Simpfendorfer)說，和美國相比，中國對國外能源的依賴程度要嚴重的多，然而高速增長的中國經濟限制了中國實現能源來源多樣化的能力。

You have a convergence of what are very powerful trends, whether it's China's rising demand, the U.S.'s declining demand, the rise of Iraq as a substitute to Iran. These are quite powerful trends that bind China to the Middle East, Mr. Simpfendorfer said.

貝哲民說，幾種十分強大的趨勢彙集到了一起，無論是中國需求與日俱增、美國需求不斷回落，還是替代伊朗的伊拉克崛起，這些都是將中國與中東聯繫在一起的強大趨勢。

According to projections by the International Energy Agency, China's net imports of oil could surpass 12 million barrels a day by 2035, up from around five million a day in 2010.

根據國際能源署(International Energy Agency)的預測，到2035年中國每天石油淨進口量可能超過1,200萬桶，而2010年的日進口量僅爲500萬桶左右。

A significant portion of those imports will continue to come from traditional oil suppliers such as Saudi Arabia as well as emerging producers like Iraq. China imported 1.01 million barrels a day of crude from Saudi Arabia in 2011, which made it by far China's largest foreign crude supplier.

中國的石油進口很大一部分將繼續來自沙特阿拉伯等傳統石油供應國以及伊拉克等新興石油出產國。2011年，中國每天從沙特阿拉伯進口原油101萬桶，這使得它成爲到目前爲止中國最大的原油供應國。

China's foothold is also deepening in Iraqi oil fields. State-owned China National Petroleum Corp. began operations at Iraq's Al-Ahdab oil field in 2011. Mr. Simpfendorfer and other analysts say if political stability in Iraq continues to improve, the country could emerge as an attractive alternative to Iran for Beijing.

此外，中國正不斷鞏固它在伊拉克油田中的立足點。國有的中國石油天然氣集團公司(China National Petroleum Corp.)在伊拉克經營開發的阿赫代布油田(Al-Ahdab)已於2011年正式投產。貝哲民和其他分析師說，如果伊拉克的政局穩定狀況持續改善，該國或許會成爲對北京來說可替代伊朗的有吸引力的選擇。

Oil-import growth from Iran could also level off as tensions with the West remain elevated, analysts say. In particular, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, which is eager to make deeper in-roads into the U.S., likely fears political hurdles from Washington if Beijing is seen to support the regime in Tehran.

分析人士說，由於伊朗與西方的關係仍然緊張，來自伊朗的石油進口增長可能也會趨於平穩。希望進一步打入美國市場的中國石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.)可能尤其擔心，如果北京被認爲支持德黑蘭政權，華盛頓也許會對該公司在美國的擴張努力設置政治障礙。