美國將逐步擺脫對中東石油的依賴

America will halve its reliance on Middle East oil by the end of this decade and could end it completely by 2035 due to declining demand and the rapid growth of new petroleum sources in the Western Hemisphere, energy analysts now anticipate.

能源分析師預測，由於需求不斷下降和西半球新石油來源的迅速增多，美國將在2020年之前把從中東進口石油的數量削減至一半，並可能在2035年之前徹底擺脫對中東石油的依賴。

The shift, a result of technological advances that are unlocking new sources of oil in shale-rock formations, oil sands and deep beneath the ocean floor, carries profound consequences for the U.S. economy and energy security. A good portion of this surprising bounty comes from the widespread use of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a technique perfected during the last decade in U.S. fields previously deemed not worth tampering with.

這一轉變的原因在於，由於技術上的進步，頁岩的岩層、油砂和洋底深處的石油資源得以釋放。這一轉變將爲美國經濟和能源安全帶來深遠影響。這一讓人驚喜的轉變有很大一部分要歸功於水力壓裂技術。在過去的10年裏，水力壓裂技術逐漸完善，讓過去不被看好的美國油田由此得到開發。

By 2020, nearly half of the crude oil America consumes will be produced at home, while 82% will come from this side of the Atlantic, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By 2035, oil shipments from the Middle East to North America "could almost be nonexistent," the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently predicted, partly because more efficient car engines and a growing supply of renewable fuel will help curb demand.

美國能源情報署(Energy Information Administration)表示，到2020年，美國自產原油將能夠滿足將近一半的國內需求，其中82%的資源來自大西洋西岸。石油輸出國組織(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)最近預計，到2035年，從中東到北美的石油運輸將幾乎完全消失，部分原因在於，更節能的汽車引擎和可再生燃料將幫助抑制對石油的需求。

The change achieves a long-sought goal of U.S. policy-making: to draw more oil from nearby, stable sources and less from a volatile region half a world away."Whereas at one point there were real and serious concerns about the ability to maintain sustainable access of supplies to the United States if there were disruptions in the Middle East, that has changed," Carlos Pascual, the top energy official at the State Department, said in an interview.

這個變化實現了美國政策制定者一個長期追求的目標：從周邊地區和穩定來源獲得更多石油，減少對遙遠且動盪不安地區的石油依賴。美國國務院負責能源事務的最高官員帕斯夸爾(Carlos Pascual)在接受採訪時說，儘管曾經一度確實有人擔憂如果中東石油供應出現中斷，美國能否保持可持續的石油供應，但是如今這種狀況已經改變。

U.S. officials stress that the Middle East will remain important to American foreign policy partly because of the region's continuing influence on global oil prices. "We need to continue to pay attention to how global markets function, because we have a fundamental interest that those markets are stable," Mr. Pascual said.

美國官員強調說，中東在美國的外交政策中依然處於重要位置，部分原因在於該地區將繼續對全球石油價格造成影響。帕斯夸爾說，我們需要繼續關注全球市場的運轉，因爲市場穩定符合我們的根本利益。

That means the U.S. military will keep guarding the region's oil shipping lanes, as it has done for decades. "Nobody else can protect it and if it were no longer available, U.S. oil prices would go up," said Michael O'Hanlon, a national security expert with the Brookings Institution, who says the U.S. spends $50 billion a year protecting oil shipments. But China, a growing consumer of Middle Eastern crude, is seeking a larger presence in the region, with its navy joining antipiracy efforts near Somalia.

這意味着美國軍方將沿襲幾十年來的做法，繼續保衛該地區石油運輸線路的安全。布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)的防務專家奧漢隆(Michael O'Hanlon)說，沒有任何一個其他國家能夠保護該地區的石油運輸線路，如果這些線路不能正常使用，美國的石油價格將會上漲。奧漢隆說，美國每年花費500億美元保護石油運輸線路。越來越依賴中東原油的中國也在尋求擴大在該地區的影響力，中國的海軍已經參與了在索馬里附近實施的打擊海盜行動。

Still, growing domestic energy production could allow the U.S. to lessen its focus on the unpredictable region over time. Dependence on Middle East oil has shaped American foreign, national-security and defense policies for most of the last half century. It helped drive the U.S. into active participation in the search for Arab-Israeli peace; drove Washington into close alignments with the monarchies of the Persian Gulf states; compelled it to side with Iraq during its war with Iran; prompted it to then turn against Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait, bringing about the first Persian Gulf war; and prompted Washington to then build up and sustain its military presence in the region.

儘管如此，由於國內能源產量不斷增加，美國得以逐漸降低對這一充滿變數的地區的關注程度。在過去半個世紀的大部分時間裏，對中東石油的依賴極大地影響了美國的外交、國家安全和防務政策。它促使美國政府與波斯灣的獨裁國家結盟，迫使美國在兩伊戰爭中支持伊拉克，讓美國在伊拉克入侵科威特之後與伊拉克反目成仇，並因此引發了第一次海灣戰爭，也致使美國政府在該地區派駐並保留駐軍。

The renaissance of the U.S. oil patch is pushing down oil prices, giving a boost to the economy at a time when a global slowdown threatens to crimp demand. Research firm Raymond James lowered its 2013 forecast for U.S. crude prices this month to $65 per barrel from $83, partly because production in the U.S. has risen much more quickly than previously expected.

美國石油的復興將導致石油價格走低，在全球經濟放緩可能削弱需求的當口提振美國經濟。研究公司Raymond James本月將對2013年美國原油價格的預期從每桶83美元下調到了65美元，部分原因是美國的原油產量增速高於此前的預期。