油價下跌中逆勢掘金的3大祕笈
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Big jolts to energy prices are often caused by major economic imbalances—like rising tensions in the Middle East setting off supply scares. Or a dropoff in demand from a recession, causing prices to plummet.
能源價格受到巨大沖擊的原因往往是經濟嚴重失衡——比如中東局勢緊張帶來對石油供給的恐慌；或者經濟衰退造成需求萎縮，使得能源價格直線下降。This time there is no global crisis behind crude’s slide (from $105 a barrel in the summer to around $60 recently, its lowest level since 2009). Instead to blame: fresh worries about growth in Europe, Japan, and China, set against rising production in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Libya, and the U.S.
但這次油價暴跌（從夏天的每桶105美元降至最近的約60美元，創2009年以來最低）並非全球危機所致。而是由於對歐洲、日本和中國經濟增長的擔憂，以及沙特、俄羅斯、利比亞和美國石油產量的增加。
Don’t expect producers to turn off the spigot just yet, especially in the U.S., where the burgeoning fracking industry can still profit at lower prices. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict output and use will both grow in 2015, but supply will outpace demand. That should push oil down further. Here’s how you can protect your portfolio and profit from the oil glut.
別指望生產商會減產，特別是在美國——在那裏，蓬勃發展的頁岩油行業在油價下跌後仍可盈利。高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析師預計，2015年石油產量和消費量都將上升，但供給的增長將超過需求。這應該會進一步壓低油價。以下將爲大家介紹如何才能保護自己的投資組合並從石油供給過剩中獲利。Your Action Plan
你的行動計劃Ease off emerging markets.Russia and Iran need oil at or above $100 a barrel to avoid major budget deficits, says Matthew Berler, CEO of investment firm Osterweis. The Saudis have been playing hardball by refusing to cut production, and if they continue, “other parts of the emerging markets could get hit,” says Tom Forester, head of Forester Capital Management. Good reason to cut emerging markets to 5% of your portfolio.
降低新興市場配置。投資公司Osterweis首席執行官馬修o柏勒指出，俄羅斯和伊朗需要油價保持在每桶100美元以上，來避免出現大量預算赤字。沙特則一直強硬地拒絕減產。基金公司Forester Capital Management負責人湯姆o弗雷斯特說，如果沙特繼續這樣做，“其他新興市場就可能受到不利影響”。這是一個把新興市場投資份額降到5%的充分理由。Bet on shipping.With gas expected to stay 30? a gallon below 2014 highs, “the transportation industry is getting a big windfall,” says economist Edward Yardeni. Railroad stocks have been on a tear for years. So lean toward cheaper truckers and airlines, which benefit from sinking prices and rising spending. Two-thirds of SPDR S&P Transportation ETF is in those industries.
押注運輸股。經濟學家愛德華o亞德尼認爲，由於每加侖汽油價格預計將比2014年的高點低30美分，“交通運輸行業將出現鉅額利潤。”這幾年鐵路股一直高歌猛進。因此，投資可以向較便宜的卡車運輸企業或者航空公司傾斜，後者將從油價下跌和消費支出增長中受益。SPDR標普交通運輸交易所交易基金（SPDR S&P Transportation ETF）的三分之二都投入了這些行業。Save on a gas sipper.“When gas prices go down, you see an immediate impact on vehicle choice,” says John Krafcik, president of pricing site TrueCar. Automakers have already begun discounting super-fuel-?efficient cars—the Ford Focus Electric recently fell $6,000—and Krafcik expects to soon see “fantastic deals” on gas-engine midsize and compact sedans, which can get 30-plus mpg. Everyone else may be buying big—the SUV is back!—but a contrarian play may pay off in the long haul.
保留低油耗汽車概念股。定價網站TrueCar總裁約翰o克拉夫茨克說：“汽油價格下跌時，立即就會看到人們在選擇汽車方面所受的影響。”汽車廠商已經開始打折銷售超級省油的汽車，比如，福特（Ford）福克斯電動車的售價最近下跌了6000美元。克拉夫茨克還預計，使用汽油發動機的中型和緊湊型轎車很快就會報出“極爲美妙的價格”，它們每加侖汽油能跑30多英里（約50公里）。其他人可能會選擇更大的——SUV重新受到關注。但逆市操作也許能帶來長線收益。（財富中文網）
