今年的生意不好做 當黃金遇上金融鍊金術

For Surender Kumar Jindal, one of the biggest sellers of gold and silver bars in India, this year has not been good for business.

對印度最大的金銀條賣家之一蘇倫德.庫馬爾.金達爾(Surender Kumar Jindal)而言，今年的生意不好做。

In US dollar terms the gold price has rallied 20 per cent, putting it on course for its first annual rise in four years. For the Indian market that has contributed to a fall in demand for the physical metal.

以美元計算，金價上漲了20%，這是金價4年來首次年度上漲。對印度市場而言，這促使對實物黃金的需求下降。

Gold’s status in India, which stems from its role in weddings and use in rural savings, has helped make the country the biggest buyer of the bullion, so any slowdown is a worry for the industry.

黃金在印度被用於婚禮和農村儲蓄，這樣的地位使印度成爲最大的黃金購買國，該國需求的任何放緩都讓行業感到擔憂。

“People aren’t buying because they know it’s not giving a return,” Mr Jindal says. “It is the price that decides; people are very price sensitive.”

“人們不購買，是因爲他們知道黃金並不提供回報，”金達爾說，“價格是決定因素；人們對價格非常敏感。”

Lacklustre demand in India marks a big change for the physical gold market. After prices fell in 2013 many tonnes of metal flowed out of London vaults amid hefty buying from India and China.

印度對黃金的需求乏力標誌着實物黃金市場的一個巨大改變。在2013年價格下跌以後，印度和中國的大量購買讓許多噸黃金流出倫敦的金庫。

But analysts say this does not mean the two largest consumers have lost their love for the bullion — rather the way people buy gold is starting to change.

但分析師表示，這並不意味着實物黃金的這兩個最大消費國不再喜歡黃金——而是人們購買黃金的方式開始改變。

In China gold is becoming a popular investment through platforms run by state-owned banks that allow investments on the Shanghai Gold Exchange via smartphones and online. New financial investment products such as gold exchange traded funds have also attracted inflows.

在中國，通過國有銀行運營的平臺，人們可以藉助智能手機或者在線渠道，在上海黃金交易所(Shanghai Gold Exchange)投資黃金，這使黃金成爲了受歡迎的投資。黃金ETF等新金融投資產品也吸引了資金流入。

“You can see that China’s investment demand has the potential to be astonishing,” says Yang Qing at the Bank of China, speaking at the London Bullion Market Association conference in Singapore this month. “The proportion of gold in ordinary people’s asset allocation will increase.”

“你能看到，中國的投資需求有可能令人驚訝，”中國銀行(BoC)的Yang Qing本月在新加坡舉行的倫敦金銀市場協會(London Bullion Market Association, 簡稱LBMA)會議上說，“黃金在普通人資產配置中的比例將會上升。”

The amount of gold in two Shanghai-listed gold-backed ETFs rose 10 times in the first half of the year, he adds.

兩隻在上海掛牌的黃金ETF持有的黃金數量在今年上半年上升了10倍，他補充道。

Such flows offset jewellery demand, which has fallen this year.

這種流動抵消了今年下降的黃金首飾需求。

Chow Tai Fook, a Hong Kong-listed retailer, reported a 22 per cent fall in same-store sales in China for the three months to September, and a 30 per cent decline in Hong Kong. Gold from Hong Kong, the mainland’s largest source of the metal last year, fell 23 per cent in August to their lowest since January.

據香港上市的黃金零售商周大福(Chow Tai Fook)報告，在截至9月的3個月中，中國內地同店銷售下降22%，香港下降30%。香港是去年內地最大的黃金來源，來自香港的黃金在今年8月下降23%至1月以來的最低水平。

Chinese buying may also pick up after the recent decline in property prices, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析師表示，在最近房地產價格下降以後，中國的黃金購買也可能回升。

Gold-based investment products are starting from a low base. China’s four listed ETFs had about 30 tonnes of gold as of July, a fraction of the 1,626 tonnes held by ETFs globally.

依託黃金的投資產品的起點基數很低。截至7月，中國的4只上市黃金ETF持有大約30噸黃金，在全球黃金ETF所持有的1626噸黃金中佔一小部分。

ETFs, however, can grow rapidly. In the US, for example, State Street’s SPDR Gold Shares, which holds 954 tonnes of gold worth $39bn, was launched in 2004 on the New York Stock Exchange and became one of the biggest ETFs in the world in 2011.

然而，ETF可以快速增長。比如，在美國，道富銀行(State Street)的SPDR Gold Shares持有954噸黃金，價值390億美元，這隻ETF於2004年在紐交所(NYSE)發售，並在2011年成爲世界最大的ETF之一。

India’s market is more dominated by rural cash purchases than China’s, but the government is trying to shift some of that buying to the financial system. Last year it launched sovereign bonds backed by gold.

比起中國，印度的市場更加被農村地區現金購買主導，但政府正在嘗試把一部分這樣的購買轉到金融系統。去年，印度發售了一些依託於黃金的主權債券。

The question is whether consumers will buy gold as they grow richer. Gold-backed financial products represent only 0.2 per cent of the value of India’s stock of gold, according to refiner MMTC-PAMP.

問題是，變得越來越富有的消費者是否還會購買黃金。根據精煉公司MMTC-PAMP的數據，黃金金融產品只佔印度黃金存量價值的0.2%。

“It’s been drilled into [millennials] that you have to keep some savings in gold,” says Sunil Kashyap, managing director in global banking and markets at Scotiabank in India. “The only issue is there are many more distractions and many more opportunities for them to spend money elsewhere.”

“（千禧一代）被灌注一種思想，就是你必須儲蓄一些黃金，”豐業銀行(Scotiabank)全球銀行和市場印度常務董事蘇尼爾.卡什亞普(Sunil Kashyap)說，“唯一的問題是，現在有更多讓人分心的事物，更多讓他們把錢花在別處的機會。”

Meanwhile, the returns have paled compared with other investments. In rupee terms gold has returned 0.9 per cent since 2013, compared with 5.6 per cent for real estate and 11.9 per cent for local equities, according to Kotak Bank.

同時，黃金的回報率相比其他投資已經黯然失色。根據Kotak Bank的數據，以盧比計算，自2013年以來黃金的回報率是0.9%，房地產的回報率爲5.6%，國內股票的回報率爲11.9%。

Jewellery demand has also been hit, with imports of refined gold for consumption falling to 87 tonnes this year, from 370 tonnes in 2015, according to Metals Focus, an analysis group.

對黃金首飾的需求也受到了衝擊，根據分析集團Metals Focus的數據，今年供消費的精煉黃金進口量從2015年的370噸下降至87噸。

However, Mr Jindal remains confident that while demand might fall from rural buyers, it will be made up for by demand for gold in new products.

然而，金達爾依然相信，儘管農村買家的需求可能下滑，對新的黃金產品的需求能夠加以彌補。