報告顯示 中國家庭債務創歷史新高

China's household debt reached a record high last year, adding to worries the burden of debt services could weigh on long-term consumer spending and drag on growth in the world's second-largest economy.

中國的家庭債務在去年達到了歷史最高水平，令人愈發擔憂償債負擔可能會抑制長期消費支出，拖累全球第二大經濟體的增長。

The country's ratio of household debt to gross domestic product hit an all-time high of 49.1 per cent in 2017, marking an increase of nearly 20 per percentage points over the past five years, German insurer Allianz said in its latest global wealth report.

德國保險公司安聯在其最新的全球財富報告中表示，中國的家庭債務與國內生產總值（GDP）之比在2017年達到49.1%的歷史新高，在過去五年裏增加近20個百分點。

"This amounts to an increase of 30 percentage points in just 10 years -- no other country saw its private debt burden rising so fast," Allianz said, with the caveat that "China needed to catch up to some extent, as Chinese private households only obtained access to bank loans in 2003".

安聯公司表示：“這相當於在短短10年裏增加30個百分點--沒有其他國家的私人債務負擔增長如此之快。在一定程度上，中國需要追趕，因爲中國的私人家庭只是在2003年才獲得申請銀行貸款的渠道。”

The report comes amid concern over the extraordinary increase in Chinese debt since the 2008 global financial crisis.

該報告出爐之際，正值人們對2008年全球金融危機以來中國債務異常增長感到擔憂。

In China, corporations and local governments were the main drivers of the country's debt accumulation through to 2016, thanks to stimulus policies that promoted investment in factory capacity and public infrastructure.

截至2016年，企業和地方政府一直是中國債務積累的主要驅動力，因爲刺激政策促進了對工業產能和公共基礎設施的投資。

But steep increases in house prices have led to an increase in mortgage debt, while the rapid rise of online consumer lending — which barely existed four years ago -- have combined to cause a sharp rise in household debt in the past two years. Regulators have recently cracked down on risky online lending, causing the flow of loans to slow.

但房價飆漲已導致抵押貸款債務增加，再加上在線消費貸款（四年前幾乎不存在）快速增長，已在過去兩年期間導致家庭債務急劇上升。監管機構最近打擊了風險較高的在線貸款，致使貸款流量減緩。

Chinese household consumption as a share of GDP remains low by international standards at 39.1 per cent. In the US and EU, the same ratio is 68.4 per cent and 55.6 per cent, respectively. But consumption has been the biggest driver of China's GDP growth for four straight years.

按國際標準衡量，中國家庭消費佔GDP的比重仍然較低，爲39.1%。在美國和歐盟，這一比重分別爲68.4%和55.6%。但消費已連續四年成爲中國GDP增長的最大推動力。

Rising debt and slower growth of household income are sparking concern about the impact on consumption and growth.

債務不斷上升，而家庭收入增長放緩，令人擔憂消費和經濟增長將受到什麼影響。

"Consumption decline is the main risk to the economy this year," Jianguang Shen, China economist at consumer finance group JD Finance, wrote in a report.

消費金融集團京東金融的中國經濟學家沈建光在一份報告中寫道：“消費下滑是中國經濟今年面臨的主要風險。”

He added that, due to rising wealth inequality, the consumption patterns of different groups have diverged.

他補充說，隨着財富不平等加劇，不同羣體的消費模式已出現分化。

"Rising housing prices have a positive influence on those who already have their own houses. It shows that they have been spending more on luxury goods, advanced education, advanced medical care and services, and overseas tourism," wrote Mr Shen.

沈建光寫道：“房價上漲對那些已擁有自己房屋的人產生了積極的影響。這體現爲他們在奢侈品、高等教育、高端醫療和服務以及海外旅遊方面的支出更多。”

"But for tenants and those planning to buy a house, rising housing prices will reduce residents' disposable income. They will downgrade their consumption in the short run and pay more attention to cost."

“但對於那些租房和打算買房的人來說，房價上漲會降低他們的可支配收入。他們在短期內會降低消費，也更加註意成本。”