美中暫時避免貨幣戰爭

Another week, another series of flip-flops by America’s president. Last week, along with reversing course on Nato, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen and the US Export-Import Bank, all of which he is much keener on now than he was a week earlier, Donald Trump did not, after all, designate China a currency manipulator.

又一週過去，美國總統又做出一系列逆轉。上週，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)對北約(Nato)、美聯儲(Federal Reserve)主席珍妮特?耶倫(Janet Yellen)以及美國進出口銀行(US Export-Import Bank)都扭轉立場，態度比一週前積極得多。他還終於決定不把中國列爲匯率操縱國。

For someone who railed against Beijing’s unfair exchange rate practices, excoriated his predecessors for failing to confront the issue and swore he would name China as a manipulator on his first day in office, this was quite a climbdown. As it happens, it is a perfectly sensible move. But given that it was coupled with vainglorious comments about the dollar being too strong because of confidence in him, Mr Trump’s about-turn suggests an enduringly eccentric approach to policymaking more than it does a principled and considered change of mind.

對於曾經猛轟北京方面不公平匯率實踐、指責歷屆美國總統未能直面這個問題、並稱自己在上任第一天就會給中國貼上操縱國標籤的特朗普，這是一個相當大的轉身。事實上，這也是一個完全明智的舉動。但是，鑑於特朗普同時發表了自吹自擂的言論，揚言各方對他的信心導致美元太強，他的大轉變似乎在更大程度上表明瞭一種一如既往的奇葩政策制定方式，而不是有原則和經過深思熟慮的想法改變。

Whatever China has done in the past, the idea that it is intervening to gain a competitive advantage is absurd. Terrified of a vicious circle of a sliding currency and uncontrolled capital flight — of the kind that rocked world markets in August 2015 — Beijing has spent billions of dollars in recent years propping the renminbi up, not pushing it down

無論中國在過去做過什麼，有關它爲了獲得競爭優勢而干預匯市的想法是荒謬的。出於對匯率下滑和資本外逃失控引發惡性循環（這種局面曾在2015年8月震撼世界市場）的恐懼，北京方面近年支出鉅額美元支撐人民幣匯率，而根本無意壓低人民幣。

The US could always argue the Chinese currency should be allowed to float completely free of state intervention. But it is obviously not in America’s interest to see a sharp appreciation against its largest trading partner and risk a destabilisation in the global financial system. In any case, naming China a manipulator, contrary to the over-excited threats of some currency warriors, authorises the US to do nothing except negotiate with Beijing over the renminbi, which it is already doing.

美國總是可以提出，中國的貨幣應該被允許自由浮動，完全不受國家干預。但是，如果美元相對於美國最大貿易伙伴的貨幣大幅升值，導致全球金融體系面臨不穩定風險，那顯然不符合美國的利益。無論如何，與某些匯率“鬥士”過於激動的威脅相反，把中國稱爲一個操縱國，除了授權美國政府在人民幣問題上與北京方面談判（而它已經在這樣做）以外，並不會帶來其他授權。

Mr Trump’s other assertion — that the recent unwelcome strength of the dollar was due to the market’s confidence in him — is also somewhat suspect. As part of the “Trump trade”, the US currency rose sharply in the weeks following his election. It has since retraced about half the distance from its peak on a trade-weighted basis. In reality the dollar now appears to be following the prospects of tighter monetary policy in the US relative to other countries. It fell back in March after the Fed’s open market committee signalled a slower pace of interest rate rises.

特朗普的另一個斷言（美元不受歡迎的近期強勢是由於市場對他有信心）也有點可疑。作爲“特朗普交易”的一部分，美元在他當選後的幾周大幅上漲。在那之後，美元貿易加權匯率已經回吐了大約一半漲幅。現實是，美元似乎在跟隨美國相對於其他國家收緊貨幣政策的前景。在美聯儲的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)暗示加息步伐將會比較緩慢之後，美元曾在3月回落。

The exchange rate dropped somewhat this week after Mr Trump’s comments, but he would be badly advised to imagine he can efficiently manage the currency through jawboning. One of the ways the US dollar has maintained its standing as a reserve currency in the past quarter-century is having successive administrations let it find its own level rather than perpetually trying to micromanage it for reasons of international competitiveness.

在特朗普表態之後，美元匯率上週有所下降。但是，如果他以爲自己翻翻嘴皮子就能高效率地管理匯率，那麼他肯定是得到了糟糕的建議。美元在過去25年保持儲備貨幣地位的方式之一是，歷屆行政當局讓它找到自己的匯率水平，而不是出於國際競爭力原因，沒完沒了地試圖對其進行微觀管理。

And while it is welcome Mr Trump is now open to reappointing Ms Yellen as Fed chair, it should not be in the context of interfering with central bank independence. It would be as wrong to press her to keep interest rates low as a matter of principle, which appears to be his current stance, as it was to attack Ms Yellen during the election campaign for not raising them sooner.

與此同時，儘管特朗普現在對任命耶倫續任美聯儲主席持開放態度是可喜的，但此舉不應該被放在干涉央行獨立的背景下。從原則上講，對耶倫施壓、要求她保持低利率（這似乎是特朗普目前的姿態），與他在競選期間抨擊耶倫沒有更快加息一樣，都是錯誤的。

It is always pleasing when Mr Trump manages to hit upon a sensible policy and listens to the voices of reason within his administration. Rather more concerning is the caprice with which such changes seem to happen.

當特朗普最終拿出一項明智政策，聆聽他的行政當局內部的理性聲音時，總是一件喜事。更令人憂慮的是這類變化似乎反映出的那種任性。

On this occasion, the rest of the world can breathe a sigh of relief that a currency war between the US and China has been averted, at least for a while. But it should not imagine that the possibility of destructive confrontation in the field of international economics from Mr Trump’s administration has therefore disappeared.

就事論事，世界其他地方可以鬆口氣，美中之間的貨幣戰爭被避免了，至少在一段時間內將是如此。但是世人不應該以爲，特朗普政府在國際經濟領域挑起破壞性對抗的可能性就此消失了。