中國房價爲何回升 China house prices rebound

Data published on Friday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics have shown a further rise in home prices in the country.

中國國家統計局上週五發布的數據顯示，中國房價繼續上漲。

The recovery has taken the market by surprise, after many predicted last year that China’s housing market was on an irreversible downward trend.

房價回升讓市場感到意外，去年有許多人預計，中國住房市場正處於不可逆的下行趨勢。

What is going on?

發生了什麼事情？

One often-cited reason for the rebound is that investors are switching from equities to housing as China’s stock market bubble deflates.

關於此次房價回升，一個經常被援引的理由是，隨着中國股市泡沫破裂，投資者從股市轉向房地產。

But there is little evidence of this.

但很少有證據表明這一點。

Seventeen per cent of consumers surveyed by FT Confidential Research in August said they planned to invest in real estate in coming months, still well below the 41 per cent planning to buy stocks.

英國《金融時報》旗下研究服務部門“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)今年8月的調查顯示，有17%的消費者表示，他們計劃在今後幾個月投資於房地產，仍遠低於計劃炒股的消費者比例，後者達到41%。

Only 20 per cent of consumers in August thought that now was a good time to buy a house for investment purposes.

今年8月，只有20%的消費者認爲，現在是投資購房的好時機。

Some observers say the uptick in home prices is happening only in larger Chinese cities. But while it is certainly true that first-tier cities have led the upturn, there are indisputable signs of recovery in smaller cities as well.

一些觀察人士表示，只有較大型城市的房價纔出現了上漲。但是儘管一線城市確實引領上漲，中小城市的房價也出現了無可爭辯的回升跡象。

Outside of provincial capitals and municipalities, the average price of residential floor space sold has risen 2 per cent year on year so far in 2015, according to the NBS.

中國國家統計局的數據顯示，2015年迄今爲止，在省會城市和直轄市以外地區的住房銷售均價同比上漲2%。

Data from Soufun, a real estate consultancy, show a similar trend.

房地產諮詢公司搜房網(SouFun)的數據顯示出類似趨勢。

So what is driving the recovery in home prices?

那麼是什麼在推動房價回升？

Analysis from FT Confidential Research suggests that the main factor is an undersupplied housing market: demand is recovering at a faster pace than supply is being increased.

英國《金融時報》旗下研究服務部門“投資參考”的分析表明，主要推手是住房市場供應不足：需求復甦步伐快於供應增加步伐。

One stark indication of this is that while residential floor space sold rose 8 per cent year on year in the first eight months of 2015, the amount of floor space completed fell 17 per cent, according to the NBS.

這方面的一個明顯跡象是，中國國家統計局的數據顯示，2015年頭8個月已售住房面積增長8%，但住房完工面積下降17%。

Undersupply, measured by the gap between space completed and space sold, is on the rise

從完工面積和銷售面積的差值來看，供應不足狀況正在加劇。

Another indication is that housing inventories are now being rapidly drawn down.

另一個跡象是，住房庫存正在迅速下降。

Residential floor space available for sale — including units being sold off-plan — fell to the equivalent of 10.3 months of sales in August in the 10 cities tracked by FT Confidential Research, the lowest level since March 2014.

在英國《金融時報》旗下研究服務部門“投資參考”追蹤的10個城市中，今年8月可供銷售的住房面積（包括計劃外銷售住房）降至相當於10.3個月的銷量，這是2014年3月以來的最低水平。

Home price growth has recovered in tandem with both of these indications of undersupply.

房價回升與這兩個供應不足的指標同時出現。

The sharp rise in home prices is ultimately testament to the fact that China needs to build more houses, an important counterpoint to the doom and gloom over China in recent months.

房價急劇上漲最終說明，中國需要建造更多的住房，這與最近幾個月唱衰中國的觀點形成了非常重要的對比。

Developers generally take about six months to respond to higher home prices and start construction on new projects, something that in the past has supported the wider economy by boosting demand for industrial goods.

房地產開發商通常需要6個月左右時間來回應房價上漲，並開工建設新項目——這在過去會提振工業品需求，從而支持宏觀經濟增長。

With home prices now firmly on an upward trend, inventories moderating and credit becoming cheaper and more readily available, there may be ground for taking a more optimistic view on China’s prospects for the rest of the year.

隨着房價現在處於明顯上漲趨勢、庫存降低以及信貸越來越廉價和更容易獲得，我們或許有理由更爲樂觀地看待中國今年剩餘時間的經濟前景。