中國政府面臨退出救市難題 China stock rescue suffers exit wounds
As China’s stock markets gyrate, policy makers find themselves facing a Fed-style quandary with Chinese characteristics: how to exit.
在中國股市暴跌之際，中國政策制定者發現，他們處於一個具有中國特色的美聯儲(Fed)式困境中：如何退出救市。
China’s “National Team” of state institutions leading market rescue efforts since early July is reportedly scaling back support, leading the Shanghai Composite index 1.7 per cent lower on Tuesday. That followed an 8.5 per cent tumble on Monday, the second-biggest drop in its history.
自7月初以來，由政府機構組成的中國“國家隊”領導了這場救市行動。如今，有報道稱國家隊正在減小支持的力度，令上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)在週二下跌1.7%。而在此前的週一，該指數曾暴跌8.5%，是其有史以來第二大單日跌幅。
Thus, just as the Federal Reserve seeks to avoid a “taper tantrum” in the bond market as it unwinds quantitative easing, Beijing — whose state-owned banks have provided more than $200bn of support — must calibrate a careful exit.
因此，正如美聯儲在退出量化寬鬆的同時努力避免債券市場發生“削減恐慌”(taper tantrum)那樣，中國政府必須精準地採用一種十分小心的退出方式。目前，中國的國有銀行已注入了逾2000億美元的救市資金。
China’s securities regulator has repeatedly denied local media reports that China Securities Finance Corp, the main conduit for injecting rescue funds into the market, has begun to sell shares it acquired earlier this month. Many investors are not convinced.
中國證監會曾多次否認國內媒體的報道。這些報道稱，作爲向市場注入救市資金的主要渠道，中國證券金融股份有限公司(CSF，簡稱證金公司)已開始拋售本月早些時候買入的股票。然而，許多投資者並不相信中國證監會的表態。
“We have a lot of people telling us privately that actually CSF has dumped shares. They just won’t admit it,” said a senior institutional sales executive at a major state-owned brokerage.
一位在一家主要國有券商負責機構銷售業務的資深高管表示：“許多人私下告訴我們，證金公司實際上已經在拋盤。他們只是不承認而已。”
Yet even taking the government’s assurances at face value, it is rational for investors to lock in profits in advance of the National Team’s retreat.
然而，就算是將政府的保證當真，投資者在國家隊退場前鎖定盈利也是合情合理的。
The government effectively established 4,500 as its target level for the Shanghai Composite on July 4, when the biggest state-owned brokerages pledged to establish a Rmb120bn stabilisation fund to buy shares and hold them until the index hit that level.
在7月4日那天，中國政府實際上宣佈上證綜指的目標點位爲4500點。當時，多家大型國有券商曾經承諾要建立1200億元人民幣的平準基金，用以買入股票、並持有至上證綜指達到4500點。
The index now stands at 3,655, just 8.4 per cent above its low point on July 9 and 29.4 per cent below the seven-year high touched on June 12.
如今，該指數落在了3655點，比7月9日的最低點僅高出8.4%，比6月12日的7年內最高點低了29.4%。
“Market expectations are that once we reach 4,500, brokerages and the National Team will start selling off. So everyone wants to get out ahead,” said a portfolio manager at a large state-owned brokerage who manages funds for institutional clients.
一位在一家大型國有券商中爲機構客戶管理資金的資產組合經理表示：“市場預期是，一旦上證綜指達到4500點，券商和國家隊就會開始拋售。因此，所有人都想在那之前退場。”
“The National Team’s retreat will happen sooner or later. It hardly matters if it starts now or in half a year.”
“國家隊的退場是遲早的事。現在退出還是半年內退出幾乎沒什麼關係。”
This problem will sound familiar to officials at the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, who are contending with investors intent on trimming their bond exposures just ahead of official interest rate hikes expected later this year.
對於美聯儲和英國央行(BoE)的官員來說，這個問題聽起來將似曾相識。目前，這兩個機構正在與投資者博弈，後者打算在預計今年晚些時候的官方加息之前，減少其手中的債券頭寸。
But a key difference is transparency. The US and British central banks disclosed the size and duration of their bond-buying programmes in advance. They have also clearly telegraphed their intentions to raise rates.
然而，這其中一個關鍵的區別在於透明度。美國和英國央行曾提前披露其購債計劃的規模和持續時間。此外，他們還明確傳達過加息的意圖。
By contrast, the People’s Bank of China has said it has provided loans to CSF — itself a form of quantitative easing, since such loans expand the money supply — but has not said how much. CSF has similarly disclosed neither the size nor how much unallocated funding remains in its estimated Rmb2.2tn war chest.
相比之下，中國央行(PBoC)曾表示向證金公司提供了貸款（由於這種貸款擴大了貨幣供應，它實際上是一種量化寬鬆），卻未透露貸款規模。與此類似，證金公司既未披露貸款的規模，也未披露在大約2.2萬億元人民幣救市基金中，還有多少資金未曾配置。
There is a logic to this approach. To boost sentiment, the National Team would prefer that market participants believe a share-price recovery is primarily market driven, with rescue money playing only a supporting role. Such a belief would be self-fulfilling, allowing state-backed players to quietly exit.
這樣的處理方式是有理由的。爲提振市場情緒，國家隊寧願讓市場參與者相信，股價復甦主要是由市場驅動的，救市資金只起到支持作用。這種認識會產生自我實現的效果，從而令得到政府資金支持的玩家能夠悄悄地退場。
Yet there are signs that opportunistic investors are trying to profit from uncertainty over the National Team’s manoeuvrings. The official Securities Times reported on Saturday that “CSF concept stocks” are the latest popular investment theme, with shares chosen based on sundry titbits of information on which stocks CSF favours. That replaces earlier policy-linked investment concepts like state-owned enterprise reform and New Silk Road.
然而，多種跡象表明，投機取巧的投資者正試圖從國家隊行動的不確定性中獲利。週六，據官方《證券時報》(Securities Times)報道，“證金概念股”成爲最新的熱門投資主題。該主題下股票的選擇，是基於有關證金公司偏好何種股票的各種信息。這一概念股，代替了早些時候與政策相關的投資理念，比如國企改革概念股和新絲綢之路概念股。
“Every move by CSF...栠愀猀 become the weathervane for official policy. When the market plummets, investors are searching for the shadow of the ‘National Team’,” Shen Zhengyang, analyst at Northeast Securities in Shanghai, wrote on Tuesday.
週二，上海東北證券(Northeast Securities)分析師沈正陽在報告中寫道：“證金公司的每一個動作……都已成爲官方政策的風向標。在股市暴跌之際，投資者都在尋找‘國家隊’的影子。”
International pressure on China to reduce intervention is also weighing on investor sentiment. Reuters reported last week that the IMF recently expressed concern to Chinese officials about restrictions on investors’ freedom to sell shares, including a ban on stock sales by large shareholders.
國際社會要求中國減少市場干預帶來的壓力，也影響了投資者的市場情緒。據路透社(Reuters)上週報道，對於中國限制投資者自由拋售股票的行爲（包括禁止大股東減持），國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最近曾向中國官方表達過關切。
If [foreign investors] find that the Chinese government can change the rules of the game on a whim and forbid them from selling shares for six months, they could be angry and make complaints to the IMF,” said the institutional sales executive.
前述負責機構銷售業務的高管表示：“如果（外國投資者）發現中國政府可能會隨意改變遊戲規則，禁止他們在6個月內拋售股票，他們可能會十分不滿，並向IMF投訴。”
That sparked concern that the Chinese authorities will be forced to phase out the sale ban as it seeks the IMF’s official endorsement of the renminbi as a reserve currency.
由於中國正尋求在爲人民幣申請儲備貨幣地位之際得到IMF的官方認可，IMF的上述表態令人擔心，中國當局將被迫逐步取消股票拋售禁令。
