中國股市下挫意外造福銅價
The abrupt reversal in China’s stock market has produced one unlikely beneficiary: copper.
中國股市行情的突然逆轉產生了一個讓人難以置信的受益者：銅。Though heavily tied to the fortunes of the Chinese economy, copper was the only large industrial commodity that rose yesterday. That may reflect Chinese hedge funds scrambling to buy back bearish bets against the metal, as they faced rising margin calls from the equity market.
雖然與中國經濟形勢息息相關，但銅是昨日唯一價格上漲的主要工業大宗商品。這可能反映了中國對衝基金面對股市節節上升的追加保證金要求，競相對看跌這種金屬的押注進行平倉。
Many Chinese funds had bet that a slowing economy would weigh on copper while a subsequent loosening of monetary policy would boost equities, leading them to take opposing positions in the two markets.
中國許多基金此前押注經濟放緩將拖累銅，而隨後趨向寬鬆的貨幣政策會提振股市，這導致它們在兩個市場購入相互對立的頭寸。
As the Chinese equity market has reversed, open interest in copper contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has fallen by more than 13 per cent in the past five days, to the lowest level since February 2014.
隨着中國股市行情逆轉，上海期貨交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)的銅合約持倉量在過去五天下跌逾13%，至2014年2月以來最低水平。Exchange data published yesterday showed one fund, Shanghai Chaos — an investment fund that had previously held the biggest short position in copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange — had halved its holdings of bearish copper bets from 33,800 contracts.
昨日公佈的交易所數據顯示，之前在上海期貨交易所持有最大銅空頭頭寸的投資基金——上海混沌投資(Shanghai Chaos)，已將所持看跌銅的合約從3.38萬份減少一半。That shift equals 93,000 tonnes of copper — about as much as the whole production from Barrick Gold’s Zaldivar copper mine in Chile last year. The mine is currently up for sale and could fetch more than $1.5bn.
這相當於9.3萬噸銅——與巴里克黃金公司(Barrick Gold)旗下智利薩爾迪瓦(Zaldivar)銅礦去年全部產量大致相當。該礦目前正待價而沽，可能以超過15億美元的價格轉手。Shanghai Chaos is one of a growing number of Chinese hedge funds that trade commodities, stocks, and bonds across the globe. Such funds were said to be behind a precipitous fall in the price of copper in January, which dropped more than $400 a tonne in one day.
上海混沌投資是越來越多在世界各地進行大宗商品、股票和債券交易的中國對衝基金之一。據悉，這些基金是今年1月銅價急劇下降的背後推手；當時每噸銅價曾單日下跌逾400美元。The bull market in Chinese stocks, which saw prices double in two years started to turn in June. China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.3 per cent yesterday even as China’s central bank cut interest rates and the amount of cash banks must hold over the weekend. It is now in a bear market having fallen more than 20 per cent from its June 12 peak.
中國股市的牛市行情（兩年期間價格翻番）在6月開始轉向。上證綜指(Shanghai Composite Index)昨日下跌3.3%，即便中國央行在剛剛過去的週末降低了利率和銀行存款準備金率。自6月12日觸及多年高位以來，中國股市累計已下跌逾20%，進入了熊市。Since much of the stock trading was done on margin, or with borrowed money, that has created a liquidity squeeze. That could prompt the closing of profitable positions, such as bets against the copper price.
由於相當大一部分股票買賣屬於融資交易（即用借來的錢炒股），股市下挫製造了流動性緊張。這可能引發投資者對獲利的頭寸（比如看跌銅價的押注）進行平倉。“If you’ve got margin call, it would make sense to cash in your profitable positions,” said Leon Westgate, an analyst at ICBC Standard Bank. “It gives you some money on hand to buy time to work out what happens with the equity market.”
“如果你接到了追加保證金的要求，變現獲利的頭寸將是有道理的，”工銀標準銀行(ICBC Standard Bank)分析師利昂•韋斯特蓋特(Leon Westgate)表示。“它讓你手頭有一些資金，獲得一些時間，想清楚股市怎麼了。”China is the world’s largest consumer of metals, responsible for about 40 per cent of global consumption in copper. The Chinese interest rate cut failed to revive the rest of the base metals complex, with the market viewing the central bank’s decision as a further sign of weakness in the economy.
中國是全球最大的金屬消費國，在全球銅消費量中佔比約40%。中國的降息未能重振其他基本金屬，市場認爲央行的決定是經濟疲弱的進一步跡象。Nickel for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange was down $590 at $11,845 a tonne, while aluminium was off $8 at $1,699 a tonne and zinc fell $8.50 to $2,018.5. Copper, outperformed, although it slipped $2.50 to $5,790 a tonne, and there are doubts the metal will continue moving higher.
在倫敦金屬交易所(London Metal Exchange)，三個月後交割的鎳價下跌580美元，至每噸11870美元，鋁價下跌18.50美元，至每噸1689美元，鋅價下跌12.50美元，至每噸2015美元。銅價上漲35美元，至每噸5790美元，但仍有人對銅價將繼續走高表示懷疑。
