中國再次降息以期遏制經濟下滑

SHANGHAI — Hoping to shore up a weakening economy, China said on Sunday that it would cut benchmark interest rates for the third time in five months.

上海——中國週日宣佈了五個月來的第三次基準利率下調，以提振疲軟的經濟。

The nation’s central bank said in its announcement that the one-year lending rate would be reduced by 25 basis points, or a quarter percentage point, to 5.1 percent, and that the one-year deposit rate was also being cut 25 basis points, to 2.25 percent.

中國央行宣佈，將一年期貸款基準利率下調0.25個百分點至5.1%，同時將一年期存款基準利率下調0.25個百分點至2.25%。

The announcement came after the government announced weaker-than-expected trade figures on Friday, with exports dropping 6.2 percent in April from a year earlier, and with continuing signs of weakness in other parts of the economy. On Saturday, the government reported tepid consumer inflation, which ran at a rate of 1.5 percent in April compared with the same month last year.

這一宣佈是在政府上週五公佈了弱於預期的貿易數據之後，四月份的出口額與上年同期相比降低了6.2％，其他經濟行業也表現出持續的疲軟跡象。週六，政府發佈了溫吞的消費者通貨膨脹率，四月份的消費價格指數與去年同期相比增長了1.5％。

By reducing interest rates, the government hopes to spur lending to businesses and create more momentum in the world’s second-largest economy after the United States.

政府希望通過降低利率來刺激向企業發放貸款，爲世界上這個僅次於美國的第二大經濟體創造更多的增長勢頭。

Although China is still growing faster than any other major economy, the slowdown has accelerated in recent months.

雖然中國經濟增長率仍比任何其他主要經濟體的都高，但經濟放緩的速度已在近幾個月有所加快。

China reported last month, for instance, that its economy grew just 7 percent in the first quarter of this year, one of the lowest rates in a decade and far below the double-digit growth the country had become accustomed to over the past few decades.

比如，中國上月發佈的今年第一季度經濟增長率只有7％，是十年來最低的季度之一，遠低於中國在過去幾十年中習慣了的兩位數增長率。

This year, the government has targeted growth to come in at about 7 percent, but policy makers are concerned that the pace is trending downward too rapidly and that growth much lower than 7 percent could create huge disruptions in the economy.

今年，政府已把增長率的目標定在7％左右，但政策制定者擔心經濟放緩的趨勢過快，並且擔心遠低於7％的增長率可能對經濟造成巨大的破壞。

While China’s stock market has suddenly come to life, the property market has been weak, exports have fallen and there are worries about the massive debt that has built up over the past decade, particularly from local government borrowings for infrastructure.

雖然中國的股市突然變得生氣勃勃，但樓市一直疲軟，出口一直在下降，也有人擔憂在過去十年中積累起來的大量債務，尤其是地方政府用於基礎設施的借款。

The authorities have said they are comfortable with a lower, more sustainable rate of growth and have pushed to restructure the economy in favor of more consumption and away from state-owned companies. And as part of that strategy, some officials have insisted that the government will not fund a stimulus package, the way it did in late 2008 and 2009, after the onset of the global financial crisis.

當局曾表示可以接受更低、更可持續的經濟增長速度，並在推動經濟結構的調整，使其更有利於消費者，而不是國有企業。一些官員堅持認爲，作爲這個戰略的一部分，政府不會像在2008年年底、2009年的全球金融危機爆發後所做的那樣，爲一個刺激計劃放開金融之水。

Many economists are gloomy about China’s prospects in the coming years, but not all. Nicholas Lardy, a China specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said that while indicators like electricity generation, rail freight car loadings and industrial production had slowed, growth in the service sector had at least partially offset difficulties in manufacturing and in investment-led sectors like construction.

雖然許多經濟學家對中國未來幾年的前景表示悲觀，但並非所有的人都如此。華盛頓彼得森國際經濟研究所的中國問題專家尼古拉斯·拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)說，雖然像發電量、鐵路貨運荷載，以及工業生產值等指標已經放緩，但服務行業的增長部分地抵消了製造業和以投資爲主的行業、比如建築業的困難。

“The traditional relationship between electric power generation and G.D.P. growth has changed,” he said in an interview in Washington in late April, referring to gross domestic product.

他四月底在華盛頓接受採訪時說，“發電量與GDP增長之間的傳統關係已經有所改變，”他指的是國內生產總值。

Fred Hu, a Hong Kong economist and financier with broad connections in the Chinese government, also contends that the Chinese economy’s weaknesses are sometimes exaggerated, and that growth might not slip much below the government’s target of about 7 percent. “It may fluctuate, but 7 percent is about the right number,” he said.

與中國政府有廣泛關係的香港經濟學家和金融家胡祖六也聲稱，中國經濟的弱點有時被誇大，其經濟增長率可能不會比政府7％左右的目標低太多。“雖然經濟增長可能會有所波動，但7％這個數字靠譜，”他說。

But an ever-growing body of downbeat economic statistics has prompted other economists to worry that Chinese policy makers now face an unappetizing choice. They can continue to cut interest rates and bank reserve requirements in a bid to stimulate bank lending and keep the economy growing fairly strongly. But that extra lending would only expand further a debt load, particularly at local governments and state-owned enterprises, that has been surging as a share of economic output ever since the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

但是，不斷出現的悲觀經濟數據已促使其他經濟學家開始擔心，中國的政策制定者們現在面臨一個他們不願做出的選擇。他們可以繼續降低利率和銀行準備金要求，以刺激銀行放貸，保持經濟有相當強勁的增長。但是，更多的貸款只會進一步擴大債務負擔，特別是地方政府和國有企業的債務負擔，這兩方面的債務在經濟產出中所佔的份額，自從2008年、2009年的全球金融危機以來，一直在快速增長。