脫歐後英國經濟急劇下降 這麼作你們悔了嗎

Britain's decision to leave the EU has led to a "dramatic deterioration" in economic activity, not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis.

英國脫歐已導致經濟活動“急劇惡化”，其嚴重程度爲金融危機餘波以來之最。

Data from IHS Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, shows a fall to 47.7 in July, the lowest level since April in 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

研究機構IHS Markit數據顯示，7月份英國採購經理人指數或PMI降至47.7，爲2009年4月以來的最低水平。該指數降至50以下則意味着經濟萎縮。

The report surveyed more than 650 services companies, from sectors including transport, business services, computing and restaurants. It asked them: "Is the level of business activity at your company higher, the same or lower than one month ago?" It also asked manufacturers whether production had gone up or down.

這份報告調查了650多家服務業公司，涉及到交通運輸、商業服務、計算機和餐飲業。這些公司需回答“貴公司商業活動與一個月前相比較爲活躍，保持不變，抑或有所減弱？”調查中還詢問了製造商的生產水平是上升了還是下降了。

Record slump

創紀錄的下跌

Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit, said the downturn had been "most commonly attributed in one way or another to 'Brexit'." "The only other times we have seen this index fall to these low levels, was the global financial crisis in 2008/9, the bursting of the dot com bubble, and the 1998 Asian financial crisis," Mr Williamson told the BBC.

IHS Markit首席經濟學家克里斯·威廉姆斯稱指數下降“很明顯在這方面或那方面受到了英國脫歐的影響”。威廉姆斯先生還對BBC說：“指數下降到如此低的水平，我們只見過爲數不多的幾次：2008年9月的全球金融危機、互聯網泡沫爆炸、1998年的亞洲金融危機。”

The difference this time is that it is entirely home-grown, which suggest the impact could be greater on the UK economy than before.

本次指數下降的不同之處在於它完全是內生性的，也就意味着它會對英國經濟造成比以往更大的影響。

Heading for recession

走向衰退

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the figures provided the "first major evidence that the UK is entering a sharp downturn". Neil Wilson, markets analyst at ETX Capital, said he thought the UK was "heading for a recession again", and that the data would almost certainly prompt the Bank of England to roll out further stimulus.

潘西恩宏觀經濟諮詢公司首席經濟學家塞繆爾·託姆斯稱這些數據“首次印證了英國經濟正急劇下滑”。ETX Capital的市場分析師尼爾·威爾遜說，他認爲英國“正再次走向衰退”，而且這些數據幾乎一定會促使英格蘭銀行展開進一步的經濟刺激計劃。

The pound has fallen in response to the publication of the data.

數據公佈後，英鎊也隨之下跌。

The UK's new chancellor, Philip Hammond, urged caution. "Let's be clear, the PMI data is a measure of sentiment, it's not a measure of any hard activity in the economy. What it tells us is businesses confidence has been dented, they're not sure, they're in a period of uncertainty now." Earlier on Friday, Mr Hammond said that he might "reset" Britain's fiscal policy.

英國新任財政大臣菲利普·哈蒙德敦促各方警惕。“我們要清楚，PMI指數只能測量人們的情緒，卻不能測量任何實體經濟活動。它只能告訴我們商業信心受挫了，他們無法確定，他們正處於一種不確定的時期。”早在週五，哈蒙德先生就說他可能“重啓”英國的財政政策。

No surprise

意料之中

While IHS Markit's reading on the UK economy was worse than most analysts expected, its verdict on the wider eurozone economy was more cheery.

儘管IHS Markit的英國經濟數據低於大多數分析師的期待，它對更廣泛的歐元區經濟狀況判斷卻較爲樂觀。

Europe Economics' Andrew Lilico, who argued during the referendum campaign that leaving the EU would be beneficial for the UK in the long term, told the BBC the PMI data was "no surprise", and that it "doesn't tell us much about what Brexit's longer term impact will be".

《歐洲經濟學》的安德魯·利裏克曾在公投期間聲稱離開歐盟會爲英國帶來長期效益，他對BBC說PMI數據在“意料之中”，它“並不能告訴我們英國脫歐會帶來怎樣的長期影響”。

Mr Lilico said he always expected a short-term reaction, and those who voted to leave, "expected a short-term slowdown too".

利裏克先生說他早就預料到會有短期的反應，而且那些投票脫歐的人“也都預料到會帶來短期的經濟放緩”。