中國鐵路基建商海外尋路

From sublime to ridiculous. China’s railway infrastructure builders have stopped at both of late.

從雲端跌落塵埃。中國鐵路基礎設施製造商最近經歷了這種過山車。

Since the fourth quarter last year, there have been three visits to sublime. In October: dual Hong Kong and Shanghai-listed China CNR beat global players including Bombardier to a $567m contract to provide Boston’s subway with rolling stock. It was China’s first win in the US.

自去年第四季度以來，中國鐵路基礎設施製造商有3次衝上雲霄。去年10月，在香港和上海兩地雙重上市的中國北車(China CNR)擊敗包括龐巴迪(Bombardier)在內的全球競爭對手，獲得爲波士頓地鐵提供價值5.67億美元的地鐵車輛的合同。這是中國公司首次在美國贏得此類投標。

In November: a $12bn deal for China Railway Construction Corp (CRCC), similarly listed, to build 1,400km of high-speed line linking Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial centre, with Calabar in the east. It is the largest Chinese overseas contract of any sort to date.

11月：同樣在香港和上海兩地雙重上市的中國鐵建(CRCC)贏得了一份價值120億美元的合同，爲尼日利亞建設一條西至商業中心拉各斯東至卡拉巴、全程1400公里的高鐵。這是中國迄今在海外贏得的最大金額的合同。

And in December: the news of the long-awaited merger of CSR Corp and China CNR, the world’s largest manufacturers of rolling stock by sales and frequent rivals for overseas contracts. By eliminating competition, the deal should improve bid prices for the combined company — shares in the two rose as much as 60 and 75 per cent respectively in the two days after the announcement. Shareholders will vote on the $45bn deal next month.

12月：期待已久的中國南車(CSR Corp)和中國北車的合併交易終於成行。按銷售計算，中國南車和中國北車是全球最大的軌道車輛製造商，它們往往在海外競爭合同。通過消除競爭，該交易應該會讓合併後的新公司提高投標價格——在合併消息宣佈之後的兩天內，兩家公司股價分別上漲60%和75%。股東們將在下月投票表決這筆450億美元的合併交易。

So far, so good. Still, two less impressive stops have damped enthusiasm. In November, Mexico’s government cancelled a $3.6bn contract it had given to a consortium led by CRCC and CSR Corp just days before, citing a lack of transparency in the rapid and uncontested bid process. The consortium pitched for the reopened tender, but late last Friday Mexico announced new delays as domestic political scandal envelops the process. Hong Kong H shares in China’s railway names fell between 3 and 5 per cent yesterday. The Shanghai “A” shares dropped a 10th apiece.

說到這裏還沒什麼問題。然而，兩個不那麼引人矚目的挫折讓人們的熱情降溫。去年11月，墨西哥政府取消了僅僅數天前給予由中國鐵建和中國南車牽頭的財團的36億美元合同，理由是競標時間短且沒有競爭對手，缺乏透明度。該財團力爭在重啓的競標中奪標，但直到最近，隨着國內政治醜聞纏身，墨西哥宣佈再度擱置高鐵項目。在香港上市的中國鐵路基建概念股也隨即下跌3%至5%，在上海上市的此類概念股全都下跌10%。

Still, ridiculous seems to say more about Mexican signalling than it does about the direction of Chinese railway companies. Last November, China’s government pledged $40bn to a “Silk Road Fund” for infrastructure aimed at boosting Asian connectivity. Expect more sublime messages ahead.

不過，跌落雲端的似乎是墨西哥的高鐵，而不是中國鐵路公司的方向。去年11月，中國政府承諾出資400億美元成立“絲路基金”，用來建設旨在提升亞洲連通性的基礎設施。預計未來將有更多中國鐵路公司攀上雲端的消息。