被春節扭曲的中國經濟數據

China, with frustrating predictability, has served up another February conundrum for the global economy, publishing data that confuse more than they clarify.

中國發布了令人困惑的程度超過指點迷津作用的數據，從而以令人沮喪的“可預測性”再度給全球經濟帶來“2月難題”。

It is a ritual that plays out at the start of every year but with one crucial difference as time goes by: now, more than ever, China’s difficult-to-decipher numbers have the ability to hold companies and investors around the world in their thrall. There are widespread concerns about Chinese growth in the wake of its financial turbulence, but as yet there is little solid evidence of how the economy is actually faring.

每年年初都會出現這種局面，但隨着一年又一年過去，現在有了一個很大的不同：如今世界各地的企業和投資者空前關注着中國難以解讀的經濟數據。在中國金融業出現動盪之後，人們普遍擔憂中國經濟增長，但至今找不到反映實際經濟表現的可靠證據。

The latest riddle comes in the form of China’s January trade numbers, published yesterday. Analysts had forecast them to be flat or even negative. Instead, they came in well above expectations, with exports up 10 per cent from a year earlier and imports up 10.6 per cent.

最新的不解之謎是昨日發佈的中國1月貿易數據。分析師們此前預計這些數據將持平，甚至出現下降。可實際公佈的數據遠高於預期：1月中國出口同比增長10%，進口同比增長10.6%。

All else being equal, this would be taken to mean that both Chinese growth and global demand were a lot stronger than anticipated. Unfortunately, all else rarely is equal – and never is that truer than for Chinese economic data printed in February.

在其它條件相同的情況下，這將被理解爲中國經濟增長和全球需求都遠比預期更爲強勁。不幸的是，其它條件相同的情況很少發生——中國在2月份發佈的經濟數據尤其如此。

“We’re flying blind and nobody knows how to properly adjust this data,” said Stephen Green, head of China research with Standard Chartered. Then, with a chuckle: “We should all just take an extended holiday.”

“我們像是在黑暗中飛行，沒有人知道如何恰當調整這些數據，”渣打(Standard Chartered)大中華區研究部主管王志浩(Stephen Green)表示。隨後他笑着說：“我們都應該休一個長假。”

The culprit for the confusion is the Chinese new year, which causes two problems.

混亂的根源在於農曆新年。它會導致兩個問題。

First, because the week-long holiday is based on the lunar calendar, its timing changes from year to year, making for fraught comparisons. This year, the holiday began on the last day of January. In 2013 it began 10 days later.

首先，由於這個爲期一週的假期是根據農曆來安排的，其具體日期每年有所不同，給對比帶來極大困難。今年的春節假期始於1月的最後一天。2013年的春節假期要晚10天。

Many analysts had expected that the loss of one working day this January would weigh on China’s economic activity for the month, making it appear weaker whether assessed in year-on-year or month-on-month terms.

許多分析師此前預計，今年1月損失一個工作日，將拖累該月中國的經濟活動，使其在年度同比或月度環比基礎上得到評估時都顯得更爲疲弱。

But after the upside surprise in the trade data, the exact opposite explanation was in vogue – namely, that the earlier timing of the holiday might in fact have inflated figures. “Today’s strong export report could have been boosted by a rush of shipments ahead of the Chinese new year,” economists with Barclays wrote in a note.

但在貿易數據超出預期之後，完全相反的解釋佔了上風，即，春節假期較早也許實際上誇大了1月份的數據。“今日的強勁出口數據可能得到企業趕在農曆新年之前發貨的提振，”巴克萊(Barclays)經濟學家在一份簡報中寫道。

The second problem is that much of China grinds to a halt for the new year holiday, and not just for one week. With hundreds of millions of migrant labourers travelling home, many factories shut for the better part of a month and offices run at half-speed.

第二個問題是，中國經濟中相當大的一部分活動在春節前後嘎然而止，其持續時間不止一週。隨着數以億計的農民工回家過年，許多工廠要關閉大半個月，辦公室的運轉速度也大幅減緩。

It is enough to confound statisticians. Rather than offer up skewed data, they wait until March to collate together the figures from January and February for retail sales, industrial output and fixed-asset investment.

這足以讓統計人員一頭霧水。與其提供扭曲的數據，他們乾脆等到3月份，然後合併整理1、2月的零售銷售、工業產出和固定資產投資數據。

Those combined figures for the first two months of the year are more reliable since they get around the problem of the timing of the new year holiday, but the delay does not make life easy for analysts or investors. It means that they need to rely on a tiny array of distorted data points – purchasing manager indices, bank loans, trade and inflation – to draw conclusions about the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

年初頭兩個月的合併數據更爲可靠，因爲他們避免了農曆新年日期不固定的問題，但延後發佈數據並不能讓分析師或投資者的日子好過，因爲他們只能依賴少量的扭曲數據——採購經理人指數(PMI)、銀行貸款、貿易和通脹——得出關於全球增長最快的大型經濟體的結論。

“This is the time to get out and do a little more tyre-kicking,” said Helen Qiao, an economist with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)經濟學家喬虹(Helen Qiao)表示，這個時候的數據也就是姑且一看。

Along with field trips to speak with companies, bankers and officials, she suggested checking “bottom-up” numbers such as shipping volumes and raw-material prices.

除了實地考察，與企業、銀行家和官員交談外，她建議關注“自下而上”的數字，如運輸量和原材料價格。

China’s headline data for January have so far pulled in different directions. Weak PMI surveys for the manufacturing and service sectors had stoked worries about Chinese growth – they were cited as one of the biggest reasons for the sell-off in global equities last month. However, yesterday’s strong trade data reinforced the more optimistic mood that has prevailed in recent days. Inflation and lending figures will be released later this week.

中國1月份的整體數據迄今表現各異。製造業和服務業PMI調查數據疲弱，令人擔憂中國經濟放緩——這些數據被稱爲上月全球股市拋售的主要原因之一。不過，昨日發佈的強勁貿易數據，助長了近日佔上風的比較樂觀的情緒。本週晚些時候將發佈通脹和放貸數據。

But it will not be until March, when a full set of cleaner data are published, that a sharper picture of the Chinese economy will emerge. Until then, it could well be a nervous wait.

但是，有關中國經濟的更清晰畫面要到3月份全套乾淨數據發佈後纔會顯現。從現在到那時很可能會是一段緊張的等待期。