中國給世界範圍內的經濟市場帶來變數

Financial markets began 2014 in an ebullient mood. Omens of economic recovery in the developed world buoyed investors across the globe. Troubles in emerging markets, it was thought, would amount only to a handful of little local difficulties.

2014年的金融市場是在一片高漲的情緒中揭幕的。發達國家經濟復甦的徵兆令全球投資者振奮。人們認爲，新興市場遇到的麻煩只會侷限於少數小規模的局部困境。

It did not last.

然而這種狀況並未持續。

In developed markets, the past weeks have seen the steepest falls in equity prices since mid-2013, when fears that the US Federal Reserve would begin phasing out its massive bond-buying programme caused interest rates to surge. This time, however, there has been no rise in short-term interest rates in the US or Europe, and bond yields have even fallen slightly. There has been no change, then, in the market’s reading of the Fed or the European Central Bank’s policy stance.

過去幾周，發達市場股價出現了2013年年中（當時人們對美聯儲逐步退出量化寬鬆的擔心導致利率激增）以來最劇烈的下跌。但這一次，歐美短期利率沒有升高，債券收益率甚至略有下降。也就是說，市場對美聯儲(Fed)或歐洲央行(ECB)政策立場的解讀並未變化。

Instead, traders have been rattled by the indications that global economic demand is weaker than thought. Inflation now stands at about a paltry 1 per cent in the US and Europe, and there has been a string of disappointing data on US economic activity.

相反，令交易員感到恐慌的是，全球經濟需求出現了弱於預期的跡象。歐美目前的通脹率仍徘徊於區區1%的水平，而美國經濟活動的一系列數據令人失望。

In previous years, this combination of events might already have had the Fed signalling a willingness to use monetary policy to stimulate the economy. But so far in 2014 the silence has been deafening.

如果是在過去幾年，這些狀況可能已促使美聯儲釋放出動用貨幣政策刺激經濟的意願。而2014年迄今美聯儲一言不發。

Investors have long believed that under Alan Greenspan and then Ben Bernanke, the Fed deliberately shielded the stock market from losses by using monetary policy to lift share prices whenever they suffered steep falls. Now investors are debating whether Janet Yellen, the incoming chairwoman, will do the same. Many are nervous. Ms Yellen has been silent on all the main issues for almost a year. Stanley Fischer, the vice chairman, is thought to be sceptical about some of the most dovish aspects of recent Fed orthodoxy.

長期以來，投資者始終相信，在艾倫•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)和隨後的本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)時代，美聯儲都有意保護股市，動用貨幣政策“托盤”，使股市免受巨大虧損。如今，投資者正在爲美聯儲新任主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)是否會採取同樣策略展開辯論。許多人對此十分緊張。近一年來，耶倫在所有重大問題上保持沉默。美聯儲副主席斯坦利•費希爾(Stanley Fischer)據信對近年美聯儲信條中某些鴿派色彩最濃重的方面持懷疑態度。

None of this would matter if the US economy had maintained the healthy rates of growth seen in late 2013. But growth seems to have dipped to about 2 per cent in the current quarter, from 3.5 per cent in the second half of last year. Markets had been cheered by a recent outbreak of sanity in Congress, which has cancelled some of the sweeping spending cuts that had been planned and now seems less likely to march America back to the brink of default. But now the fear is that this will not be enough. The economy might return to earth with a thud, as it did after a short spurt of growth in 2009-10.

如果2013年底美國經濟能保持健康的增速，這一切就無關緊要了。然而，美國經濟增長率似乎已從去年下半年的3.5%跌至本季度的大約2%。美國國會近期展示的清醒頭腦令市場感到欣慰，他們取消了部分原本打算開展的全面減支計劃，似乎也不那麼想把美國再次推回債務違約邊緣。不過，市場現在擔心的是，僅僅這些是不夠的。美國經濟可能會急轉直下——就像2009-10年短暫加速後出現的情形一樣。

The Fed plans to taper its asset purchases only very gradually. Yields on long-term bonds are expected to rise only by about 1 per cent. If the US economy proved unable to withstand even this featherweight touch, market optimists would lose their verve. The stock market has a long way to fall – shares are currently selling for fairly high multiples of company profits, by historical standards. A bear market could ensue.

美聯儲只打算以非常漸進的節奏縮減資產購買規模。預計長期債券的收益率只會上升大約1%。如果美國經濟被證明連這種超輕量級的壓力都無法承受，市場樂觀者可能會方寸大亂。按歷史標準，目前股價處於相當高的市盈率水平，也就是說仍有很大的下跌空間。熊市可能會隨之而來。

Yet these fears seem overblown. The January weakness in US employment data, and in the ISM manufacturing survey, shocked the markets, but other statistics have painted a brighter picture. The slowdown may turn out to be a blip, caused by a one-off pause while companies run down excess inventories, or the effects of extraordinary weather. If this view proves correct – and I think it will – the recovery will strengthen later in the year.

然而這種擔憂似乎過頭了。雖然1月份疲軟的美國就業數據及供應管理協會(ISM)製造業調查數據令市場震驚，但其他統計資料描繪了比較光明的圖景。這次放緩可能被證明是暫時現象，原因可能是企業用掉過多庫存後的一次性暫停，或者是惡劣天氣的影響。如果這種觀點被證明是正確的——我認爲是——今年晚些時候美國復甦勢頭將會加強。

This sanguine assessment does not, however, apply to the emerging markets, where a storm is brewing.

不過，這種樂觀的估計對於新興市場並不適用——新興市場正醞釀着一場風暴。

Since the Fed began its quantitative easing, investors who could no longer earn their keep buying US government debt have ventured further afield. This has resulted in a huge influx of capital into countries such as Turkey and Argentina. But the ensuing credit bubbles were not sufficiently controlled by monetary authorities, and now that policy is being tightened in the west, they threaten to burst. Central banks in emerging markets have been pleading for help. But these calls have been politely dismissed by both the Fed and ECB, whose job is to look after the economy at home.

自美聯儲開始量化寬鬆以來，那些無法再從購買美國國債賺得足夠利潤的投資者開始到遠方冒險，導致大量資本涌入土耳其和阿根廷這類國家。然而，這些國家的貨幣當局未能充分控制隨之而來的信貸泡沫。如今，隨着西方收緊貨幣政策，這些泡沫有破裂的危險。新興市場的央行最近在四處求助，然而美聯儲和歐洲央行婉拒了這些請求——他們的職責是照看好本國經濟。

Now China has decided to withdraw its own huge monetary stimulus. Both of the world’s major economic powers are therefore pulling in the wrong direction for most emerging nations. They have not been helped by the collapse in the yen, which effectively cuts the price of Japanese products, or the euro area’s growing trade surplus. They have little option but to let their currencies slide, with rising interest rates and slowing growth rates looking inevitable.

現在中國也決定收回其巨大的貨幣刺激。因此，對於多數新興市場國家來說，世界兩大經濟強國都在朝着對他們不利的方向行動。此外，日元暴跌（這大幅壓低了日本產品價格）和歐元區不斷增長的貿易順差也對他們沒有幫助。除了讓貨幣貶值外，這些國家沒什麼別的選擇，利率升高和增長放緩似乎已不可避免。

In many emerging markets, monetary conditions are tightening sharply – the opposite of what these weakening economies need. In the aftermath of a boom fuelled by cheap credit, the spectre of widespread economy looms.

在許多新興市場，貨幣狀況正急劇收緊——與這些疲弱經濟體急需的補藥恰恰相反。在廉價信貸推動的繁榮過後，大範圍資不抵債的陰影隱約出現。

All eyes are now on China. Few, if any, major economies have emerged intact from a credit bubble as intensive as the one in China’s shadow banking sector today. But no country has had $3.5tn of liquid reserves to fall back on, either.

如今，所有人的目光都集中在中國身上。中國影子銀行業存在着巨大的信貸泡沫，沒有哪個主要經濟體在遭遇這麼大的泡沫後還能全身而退。不過，也沒有哪個國家像中國這樣，有3.5萬億美元的流動性儲備作爲後盾。

China’s decision in December to bail out an investment product distributed by its largest bank, shows that for now, the authorities prefer to absorb the losses of the private sector than to sow panic among investors. But before this is over there will be failures in financial institutions, just as there were in 1998 when Premier Zhu Rongji allowed the collapse of Gitic to act as a lesson to others.

去年12月份，中國決定爲其最大銀行分銷的一款投資產品紓困。這表明中國官方寧願吸收私營部門的虧損，也不願在投資者中引發恐慌情緒。不過，這一切結束之前，將會出現金融機構的倒閉——正如1998年那樣。當時，中國總理朱鎔基曾決定讓廣東國際信託投資公司(GITIC)破產，以此作爲對其他人的教訓。

Investors are asking whether the markets can survive tapering by the Fed. The harder question is whether they can survive a monetary tightening by the People’s Bank of China. Many are betting on a bumpy landing, but one that causes few casualties. But China is where the unknown unknowns in the global economy currently lurk.

投資者正在問一個問題：市場能否從美聯儲逐步縮減量化寬鬆規模的過程中倖存下來？而更難回答的問題則是：市場能否從中國央行的一輪貨幣政策收緊中倖存下來？許多人猜測，全球市場將有一次顛簸的着陸，但不會有太多傷亡。不過，中國目前是全球經濟中未知因素潛伏的地方。