飛機上感染新冠肺炎的機率有多大？專家：比你想象的小

新冠疫情暴發以來，很多人都不敢乘坐飛機，因爲他們認爲機艙空間小，感染新冠肺炎的風險更高。然而，新研究發現，飛機上感染新冠肺炎的機率其實很小，旅客可以安心乘坐飛機。

Sitting squeezed between a number of strangers on board an aircraft might feel like a risky position during these uncertain times.

在這種不確定的時期，乘飛機時坐在一堆陌生人中間可能感覺風險很大。

But according to some experts who point to the very few documented cases of in-flight transmission, the chances of catching Covid-19 while on board a flight are actually relatively slim.

但是一些專家指出，新冠病毒在機艙內傳播的病例記載非常少，實際上在乘飛機時感染新冠肺炎的機率相對較小。

Fear of flying during the pandemic has drastically reduced global air traffic, which has also been restricted due to border closures. If new scientific claims are borne out, the perceived heightened risk of boarding an airplane could be unfounded.

疫情期間人們對飛行的擔心令全球空中交通流量劇減，航空飛行也因爲邊境封鎖而受到限制。如果新的科學說法得到證實，乘機感染風險高的觀念或許就是沒有根據的。

In one case, about 328 passengers and crew members were tested for coronavirus after it was learned that a March 31 flight from the US to Taiwan had been carrying 12 passengers who were symptomatic at the time. However, all the other passengers tested negative, as did the crew members.

在一個案例中，在得知3月31日從美國飛往中國臺灣的航班上搭載了12名有新冠肺炎症狀的乘客後，相關部門對機上約328名乘客和機組人員進行了新冠病毒檢測。但是，其他所有乘客的檢測均呈陰性，機組人員也是如此。

And while there have certainly been cases of infected passengers passing the virus on to an airplane's crew or fellow travelers in recent months, the transmission rates are low.

誠然，近幾個月肯定有感染新冠病毒的乘客傳染給機上的乘務人員或其他乘客的情況發生，但是傳播機率比較低。

A study recently published in medical journal JAMA Network Open found evidence of the possible spread of coronavirus during a four-hour flight from Tel Aviv to Frankfurt in March.

最近發表在醫學期刊《美國醫學協會網絡公開雜誌》上的一項研究發現了三月份從特拉維夫前往法蘭克福的四小時航空飛行期間可能發生新冠病毒傳播的證據。

Two passengers developed infections after flying with a group of tourists who had come into contact with an infected hotel manager and also became infected, according to researchers from the Institute for Medical Virology at Goethe University in Frankfurt.

法蘭克福歌德大學醫學病毒學研究所的研究人員稱，兩名乘客在和一羣遊客同乘一航班後感染了新冠病毒，這羣遊客是在和一位感染了病毒的酒店經理接觸後感染的。

The two who may have been infected were seated at the back of the aircraft, directly across the aisle from seven passengers who had unknowingly picked up the virus.

這兩位可能在飛行途中被感染的乘客坐在飛機靠尾部的座位，正對着過道那頭七位被感染卻不知情的乘客。

An earlier flight from the UK to Vietnam on March 2, in which one passenger seemingly spread the virus to around 14 other passengers, as well as a crew member, is so far believed to be the only known on-board transmission to multiple people.

此前，3月2日從英國飛往越南的一個航班上，一名乘客似乎將病毒傳染給了14名其他乘客和一名乘務員，這是迄今爲止已知的唯一一個機上一人傳染多人的案例。

One explanation for the apparently low risk level is that the air in modern aircraft cabins is replaced with new fresh air every two to three minutes, and most planes are fitted with air filters designed to trap 99.99% of particles.

飛機上傳染風險明顯較低的一個解釋是，現代機艙中的空氣每2到3分鐘就會換一次，多數飛機都配備了空氣過濾機，可以過濾掉99.99%的顆粒物。

Meanwhile, various new protocols have been implemented, such as face-coverings for both passengers and crew, which is mandatory on most airlines, temperature screenings, as well as more intensive cabin cleaning and limited movement in the cabin during flight.

與此同時，航空公司實行了各種新規定，比如乘客和機組人員都要遮蓋面部（這在多數航空公司都是強制性規定）、進行體溫篩查以及加強機艙清潔和飛行途中限制機艙內活動。

Arnold Barnett, a professor of statistics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management, tried to quantify the odds of becoming infected with the virus while on board a short flight in a recent study that looked at the benefits of the empty middle seat policy.

在最近的一項針對中間座位空置政策成效的研究中，麻省理工學院斯隆管理學院的統計學教授阿諾德·巴奈特試圖量化短程飛行期間感染病毒的機率。

According to his findings, based on short haul flights in the US on aircraft configured with three seats on either side of the aisle, such as the Airbus 320 and the Boeing 737 -- and assuming everyone is wearing a mask -- the risk of catching the virus on a full flight is just 1 in 4,300. Those odds fall to 1 in 7,700 if the middle seat is vacant.

根據巴奈特的研究結果，基於在過道兩邊配備了三個座位的飛機（比如空客320和波音737）的美國短途航班數據，假定每個人都佩戴了口罩，那麼在滿員航班上感染新冠病毒的機率爲4300分之一。如果中間座位空置，感染機率則降到了7700分之一。

These figures are specifically for two-hour flights within the United States, the country currently with the highest number of Covid-19 cases in the world.

這些數據專門適用於美國境內的兩小時航班，美國目前的新冠肺炎確診病例是全世界最高的。

The odds will be lower for flights taken in parts of the globe with few cases and higher for long haul flights, he says.

巴奈特表示，在病例少的世界其他地區機上感染機率會更低，長途航班的感染機率則會更高。

Barnett goes on to state that there isn't much of a difference in terms of risk between passengers sitting in an aisle seat on a full flight and those in the window seat.

巴奈特還表示，滿員航班上坐在靠過道座位和坐在靠窗座位的乘客感染風險沒多大差別。

However, the chances of becoming infected are ever so slightly higher for those in aisle seats, because they simply have more people around them.

不過，坐在靠過道座位的乘客感染機率會略高，因爲他們周圍的人更多。

"You're endangered by the people sitting next to you in the same row," he says. "And to a lesser extent, the people in the row behind and the row ahead.

巴奈特稱：“和你坐同排的人對你威脅更大，坐前後排的人對你威脅更小。”

"Statistically, the window seat is a little safer than the middle seat or the aisle seat on a plane that's full. But it's not a big difference."

“從統計數據來看，在滿員航班上坐靠窗座位比坐中間座位或靠過道座位稍微更安全一點。但是差別不大。”