未來五年鐵礦石價格將下跌

Iron ore prices will fall to $90 a tonne over the next five years as demand for the steel-making ingredient wanes and a wave of new supply hits the market, Australia’s official commodities forecasting agency has predicted.

澳大利亞官方大宗商品預測機構預計，隨着市場對鐵礦石需求減少、供應增加，未來五年鐵礦石價格將降至每噸90美元。

“The decline in prices is expected in response to moderating demand, particularly in China, and substantial supply increases from mining projects that are already under construction,” the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics said in its quarterly report published yesterday.

澳大利亞資源與能源經濟經濟局（Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics，簡稱BREE）在昨日發佈的季度報告中指出：“由於需求、尤其是中國的需求不斷下滑，再加上已在建設中的採礦項目導致供應大幅增加，預計（鐵礦石）價格將會下跌。”

The price of iron ore is critical to the global economy because it feeds through into the price of steel and goods such as cars and washing machines. It is also key to the profitability of large mining groups as well as steelmakers, including ArcelorMittal and Baosteel of China.

鐵礦石價格對全球經濟來說非常關鍵，因爲它會傳導到鋼材價格以及汽車和洗衣機這類商品的價格上。此外，它還對大型礦業集團和安賽樂米塔爾(ArcelorMittal)、寶鋼集團(Baosteel)等鋼企的盈利能力有着重要影響。

Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group, respectively the world’s second-, third- and fourth-biggest iron ore miners, are all aggressively expanding production. By 2015 they expect to add 235 tonnes of mine capacity – equal to about half of Australia’s entire iron ore production last year.

排名世界第二、三、四位的鐵礦石礦商——力拓礦業集團(Rio Tinto)、必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和Fortescue Metals Group——都在大力增產。預計到2015年時，它們的開採產能將增長2.35億噸，約爲去年澳大利亞鐵礦石總產量的一半。

But analysts are increasingly worried that the seaborne iron ore market will soon be in oversupply as output increases from Australia – the world’s biggest exporter of iron ore – and demand from China slows.

但分析師越來越擔憂的是，隨着澳大利亞（全球最大鐵礦石出口國）的產量逐漸增加以及中國需求逐漸放緩，海運鐵礦石市場不久就會供應過剩。

The price of the steel-making ingredient hit a two-and-a-half month low of $132.90 a tonne last week as Chinese steelmakers, the largest source of demand globally, backed away from the market amid signs of weakness in end demand.

鐵礦石價格上週跌至每噸132.90美元的兩個半月低點，原因是中國鋼企（全球最大的鐵礦石需求方）因終端需求疲軟而逐漸撤出市場。

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2015 forecast to $80 a tonne, as Chinese demand for imported iron ore slows due to the growing role of scrap in steel production and continued investment in domestic iron ore mines.

由於廢料在鋼鐵生產中的作用不斷提升、再加上中國對國內鐵礦持續投資，中國對進口鐵礦石的需求有所減弱。有鑑於此，高盛(Goldman Sachs)在本週早些時候將其對2015年鐵礦石價格的預測值下調到每噸80美元。

“The iron ore industry has responded to a year of high iron ore prices by investing in new production but we argue that future demand will not be enough to absorb it,” Goldman said.

高盛表示：“一年來的價格高企，促使鐵礦石行業加大投資以實現增產。但我們認爲，未來的需求不足以消化掉增加後的產量。”

In its report, BREE forecast average spot and contract prices of $119 a tonne in 2013 and $90 by 2018. It said Australian iron ore exports would increase 12 per cent this year to 554m tonnes due to higher output at Rio and BHP mines and the “ramp-up” of production at Fortescue’s expansion projects in Western Australia. Overall, BREE predicts Australian iron ore exports will increase at an average annual rate of 8 per cent a year between 2014 and 2018, when output will hit 831m tonnes.

BREE的報告預計，2013年鐵礦石的平均現貨及合約價格爲每噸119美元，2018年將降至每噸90美元。報告還稱，由於力拓和必和必拓產量提高、Fortescue在西澳大利亞州的擴張項目也使產量“迅猛增長”，今年澳大利亞的鐵礦石出口量將增長12%，達到5.54億噸。BREE預計，總體來說，2014年到2018年，澳大利亞鐵礦石出口量的年均增幅將爲8%。到2018年時，澳大利亞的鐵礦石產量將達8.31億噸。

Most of the big miners expect the iron ore price to decline in coming quarters as new supply hits the market, projecting prices to average about $120 a tonne this year. But they do not believe there will be a dramatic collapse in prices, arguing that not all the forecast supply will materialise and that China’s urbanisation will continue to drive steel demand.

隨着新的供應進入市場，大部分大型礦商都預期，未來幾個季度鐵礦石價格將會下滑，預計今年的均價將爲每噸120美元左右。但它們不認爲鐵礦石價格會出現戲劇性的暴跌，理由是並非所有的預期供應都能實現、而且中國的城鎮化將持續提振鋼材需求。