鐵礦石價格跌至五年低位
Iron ore fell to a five-year low yesterday as China’s property market showed renewed signs of weakness.
鐵礦石昨日跌至五年低位，原因是中國房地產市場再度呈現疲軟跡象。Benchmark Australian ore for delivery into China was assessed at $72.10 a tonne, down 4 per cent, according to data from the Steel Index.
根據“鋼鐵指數”(Steel Index)的數據，基準的澳大利亞鐵礦石的中國交貨價格被定在每噸72.10美元，下降4%。
It has fallen more than 40 per cent this year as a wave of new seaborne supply of the key steelmaking ingredient from miners in Australia and Brazil has hit the market at the same time as demand growth has slowed.
這個價格今年迄今累計下跌逾40%，來自澳大利亞和巴西礦商的大量新增海運鐵礦石供應進入市場，而與此同時需求增速有所放緩。鐵礦石是鍊鋼的關鍵原料。
A drop in new home prices in almost all Chinese cities tracked by the government was behind the latest downward move in prices. China is heavily dependent on imports of iron ore, buying about 75 per cent from overseas.
中國政府追蹤的國內大中城市新房價格幾乎全部下降，是鐵礦石價格最新下挫的主因。中國嚴重依賴進口鐵礦石，從海外採購約75%。Many traders had expected prices to rebound as domestic steel mills and sinter plants (where iron ore fines are mixed with coking coal and partially smelted), closed by the government ahead of the Apec economic summit in Beijing, came back on line. However, this has not happened.
許多交易商此前預計，隨着亞太經合組織(APEC)在北京舉行峯會之前被政府關閉的中國鋼廠和燒結廠（將鐵精礦與焦煤混合，進行部分冶煉）恢復生產，鐵礦石價格將會反彈。然而，這種情況並未發生。New home prices had dropped in October in 67 out of 70 cities from a year earlier, and in 69 during September, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.
中國國家統計局(NBS)昨日表示，全國70個大中城市10月新建商品住宅價格同比下降的城市有67個，與9月相比價格下降的城市有69個。At current prices about 200m tonnes of seaborne iron ore is unprofitable, according to Melinda Moore, an analyst at Standard Bank. She expected a further 100m tonnes to hit the market next year, overwhelming expected Chinese demand growth of 30m tonnes. “It’s a game of chicken now about who is going to turn off first,” she said.
標準銀行(Standard Bank)分析師梅林達•摩爾(Melinda Moore)表示，按目前價格，大約2億噸的海運鐵礦石無利可圖。她預計，明年還將有1億噸新增供應投放市場，遠遠超過3000萬噸的中國需求增長預測。“現在這成了一場博弈遊戲，看誰最先撐不下去，”她說。In the past couple of weeks, analysts have been cutting their price targets for iron ore. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group forecasts an average price of $78 a tonne for 2015, while Citi is forecasting $65 and said prices could briefly dip to $50.
近兩週來，分析師們削減了鐵礦石目標價格。澳大利亞和新西蘭銀行集團(Australia and New Zealand Banking Group)預測2015年平均價格爲每噸78美元，而花旗(Citi)預測均價爲65美元，並稱價格可能短暫跌至50美元。Rio Tinto’s share price has dropped 4.7 per cent this month in London, while fellow miner BHP Billiton has declined 0.89 per cent.
力拓(Rio Tinto)股價本月在倫敦下跌4.7%，而同爲礦商的必和必拓(BHP Billiton)股價下跌0.89%。Vale of Brazil has sunk 14.8 per cent.
巴西淡水河谷(Vale of Brazil)股價下滑14.8%。Low prices are testing China’s domestic iron ore miners, which are likely to close in the next six to 12 months, according to ANZ.
低廉的價格正在考驗中國國內的鐵礦石生產商。據澳新銀行(ANZ)分析，它們很可能在接下來6到12個月內停業。
