油價下跌 對中國利弊幾何
The recent global drop in oil prices has made winners of consumers in places like the United States and Japan, and losers of countries that depend heavily on oil exports such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela. China, a leading crude oil importer and the world’s largest energy consumer, has responded to the fall in oil prices — the steepest since 2009 — by going on a buying spree to ensure that its strategic oil reserves at the end of 2014 were twice what they were the year before. Last month, in another move to bolster the country’s supplies, China’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, directed domestic oil refiners to stock up on crude oil and to provide the government with monthly updates on their Ferchen is an associate professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing and a resident scholar at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. His latest research focuses on China’s energy sector and its political and economic ties to emerging economies. In an interview, he discussed how the decline in oil prices would affect China’s relations with other countries and its transition to a more energy-efficient future.
最近全球油價下跌，令美國和日本這樣的石油消費國受益，而嚴重依賴石油出口的俄羅斯、伊朗和委內瑞拉等國則淪爲輸家。中國是原油進口大國，也是全球最大的能源消費國，對於這波自2009年以來幅度最大的油價下跌，中國的反應是大量購入石油，因而該國在2014年底的戰略石油儲備量達到了一年前的兩倍。上個月，中國又實施了另一個獲取更多供應的舉措：該國最高經濟規劃機構國家發改委指示國內成品油煉油企業囤積原油，每月向政府提供自己的最新庫存數據。陳懋修(Matt Ferchen)是北京清華大學國際關係副教授、清華-卡內基全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy)學者。他的最新研究領域側重在中國能源部門及其和新興經濟體的政治經濟聯繫上。在本次採訪中，他談到了對於中國和其他國家的關係，以及對於中國的節能之路來說，油價下跌存在着怎樣的影響。
Q: Crude oil prices have fallen to a five-year low, and one response by China has been to build up its strategic petroleum reserves. How well is China handling this opportunity?
問：原油價格已經跌至五年低點，中國的一個反應是擴大戰略石油儲備。這個機會它把握得如何？A: China has relatively small reserves compared to the United States, and they can probably only last weeks compared to months in the U.S., so there’s a real need for China to add to those reserves. While other commodity prices have gone down as well, bringing down the overall price of Chinese imports doesn’t solve the long-term energy security problems that China faces. This is going to ultimately be to the detriment of the Chinese economy and to thinking about energy security.
答：和美國相比，中國的儲備量相對較小；美國可以維持數月，中國大概只能維持數週時間，所以中國真的有必要擴大儲備。雖然其他大宗商品價格也已經回落，降低了中國進口的總體價格，但這並沒有解決中國面臨的長期能源安全問題。這終究將不利於中國經濟及其對能源安全問題的考量。
Q: Have lower oil prices benefited Chinese consumers?
問：中國消費者從油價下跌中獲益了嗎？A: It should help to keep inflation down. However, I heard that the gas price is stable at the pump in China, which means the oil companies themselves have in some way increased profitability. I think the question of who is actually seeing the benefit of decreased oil prices is not clear in China, whereas it is obvious in the United States — it’s going to the consumers. But there’s also a downside to that in the U.S., because now people are going to buy gas at the time we’ve seen a greater push for energy efficiency and more fuel-efficient cars, so it seems this development will cut into that momentum in the U.S. right now.
答：油價下跌應有助於降低通脹。不過，我聽說中國汽油的零售價格基本平穩，這意味着石油企業本身以某種方式提高了盈利能力。我認爲，在中國，誰真正從油價下跌中獲益了，這個問題的答案尚不清楚，在美國，情況就很明顯——受益的是消費者，但是這也有一個缺點，因爲之前大家有更多的動機購買能效更高、更省油的汽車，現在美國已經形成了這種購車趨勢的苗頭，但油價下跌可能會對其造成打壓。So even if consumers do see lower prices at the pump in China, it’s not at all clear this is a good thing for China. The lower oil price comes with complicating effects as you try to make progress on energy efficiency.
因此，即使中國消費者享受到了更低的汽油零售價格，這對中國究竟是好是壞也很難說。當你試圖推進節能目標時，油價卻下跌了，這會帶來複雜的影響。Q: Are lower prices likely to cause China to trim back its exploration efforts for energy resources in the South China Sea and thereby reduce tensions with Southeast Asian neighbors that dispute China’s claims to these waters?
問：中國與一些東南亞鄰國在南海存在領海主權爭端，油價下跌有可能會導致中國減少在那裏的能源資源勘探活動，從而緩解他們之間的緊張局勢嗎？A: I don’t think it’s going to ease the tensions. I think China will continue to explore for resources. A lot of it is still exploration just to see what’s out there. In some sense, there should be a disincentive for Chinese exploration when prices are this low, but I think state-owned enterprises have a different time horizon and face different economic incentives, especially when compared to private firms, and therefore will continue on with plans as they exist.
答：我不認爲這會緩解緊張局勢。我覺得，中國將繼續進行資源勘探。它進行的很多探勘活動只是爲了看看那裏有什麼。從某種意義上說，油價如此之低，對中國的勘探工作是個不利因素，但我認爲，由於中國的國有企業存在着不同的投資期概念，並且面臨不同的經濟激勵措施，特別是與私人公司相比，因此他們會繼續開展已經制定的計劃。They don’t pay the costs, ultimately, in the same way that private firms do. For instance, if a lot of your exploration is built on credit, as it is in the U.S. with shale development, there’s a limited time horizon and eventually you’ve got to pay someone else back. Chinese state-owned enterprises don’t face that same problem.
終究來說，中國的國營公司不用支付私營公司需要付出的那些成本。舉個例子，如果你賒賬開展勘探活動，就像美國的頁岩開發那樣，那會有一個有限的投資期，最終你需要把錢還給某人。但中國國有企業沒有這種問題。Q: With Russia in economic trouble, between Western sanctions over its actions in Ukraine and falling revenues from oil exports, will it move closer to China?
問：俄羅斯因其在烏克蘭的行動遭受了西方制裁，而且石油出口收入也減少了，爲此它的經濟陷入了困境，俄羅斯會向中國靠攏嗎？A: I think China’s calculations in terms of energy deals hinge on a more advantageous bargaining position over the price of oil, so that leads to greater interest by China to engage with Russia. And, to the extent that Russia now has limited alternatives, that will lead Russia to be willing to make more agreements. I think Russia has a continuing incentive to show that it does have alternatives in terms of markets and also that it has strategic, like-minded partners in a world that is portrayed as hostile to the interests of the nontraditional powers such as BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa]. Russia, now under fire from sanctions and a drop in commodity prices, therefore needs a partner. I think that pushes the two sides together both in terms of substantive cooperation and also in an effort to enhance the image of renewed comradeship.
答：我覺得，中國在能源交易上的考慮，取決於更爲有利的油價談判地位，所以中國對和俄羅斯合作的興趣增加了。另一方面，俄羅斯現在的選項很有限，所以也願意達成更多的協議。我認爲，俄羅斯一直都很希望展示，它確實能在市場上找得到替代買家，而且能在一個被描繪爲對非傳統勢力（比如金磚四國：巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國、南非）的利益充滿敵意的世界中找到志同道合的戰略性合作伙伴。俄羅斯目前承受着制裁和大宗商品價格下跌的雙重壓力，因此需要一個合作伙伴。我認爲，雙方合作既有實質利益的推動，也有展示延續夥伴關係的動機。Q: What about China’s relationship with oil-rich Iran, which is under international sanctions because of its nuclear programs?
問：那麼中國與伊朗的關係如何？伊朗擁有豐富的石油資源，由於發展核計劃，它遭到了國際制裁。A: I think the more interesting question is how China views what is and what isn’t stable in the Middle East in terms of political processes. Iran represents a country where the U.S. sees not only a problematic nuclear policy, but also a support for governments in the region including Syria and is therefore a major source of concern and instability in the region, whereas that is not the perception from China. China worries about the tensions between the U.S. and Iran and would prefer to see a negotiated outcome there.
答：我覺得更有趣的問題是：在中國眼裏，從政治進程的角度而言，中東的哪些東西是穩定的，哪些不穩定。在美國眼中，伊朗不僅在覈政策上有問題，而且也是敘利亞等政府的支持者，因此是該地區很多問題和不穩定局勢的一個主要來源，但中國的看法不是這樣。中國對美國和伊朗的緊張關係感到擔心，希望他們能靠談判的方式取得結果。When Chinese officials and academics speak about Chinese interests in the Middle East, they frequently mention the political stability of the region, the stability of energy production and flows and, to an increasing extent, the ways the region’s instabilities may tie in to domestic concerns within parts of China about separatism and terrorism. So if the U.S. and Iran can normalize their relations, therefore increasing flows of Iranian oil and inducing a more constructive role for Iran in reducing regional tensions, it’s possible that both the U.S. and China could see Iran as a force for the Middle Eastern stability that both claim to want.
在談到中國在中東的利益時，中國官員和學者經常提及該地區在政治、能源生產和運輸上的穩定性問題，而且越來越多地提及該地區的不穩定局勢可能和中國國內部分地區的分裂主義和恐怖主義活動存在聯繫。因此，如果美國和伊朗能夠實現關係正常化，從而增加伊朗石油的輸出，並讓伊朗在緩和地區緊張局勢的努力中發揮更具建設性的作用，那麼美國和中國可能就會把伊朗視爲一支有助於中東穩定的力量，中美都表示希望能這樣。Q: How do lower oil prices change China’s incentives to make progress on renewable energy? Will they help China reach its goals on deterring climate change, which include seeing the country’s carbon dioxide emissions peak by around 2030?
問：油價下跌將如何改變中國追求可再生能源的動力？它會幫助中國實現其阻止氣候變化的目標嗎，比如在2030年左右該國的二氧化碳排放量達到峯值？A: I think the drop in oil prices can only be bad for renewable energy. If we see prices at the pump reflecting the change, then I think it would be negative for renewable energy as it would contribute to vehicle use and more people buying cars and contributing to poor air quality. On the other hand, if the government has benefited from lower oil prices and puts the surplus into other kinds of energy-efficient policies, that could be a good thing. They could use this opportunity to put in place healthier kinds of plans.
答：我覺得，油價下跌對可再生能源有弊無利。如果汽油零售價也相應降低，可能就會對可再生能源造成負面影響，因爲這會促使人們更多地使用車輛、購買車輛，導致空氣質量惡化。另一方面，如果政府從油價下跌中獲了益，能把這些錢拿出來，投入到其他類型的節能政策上，那可能就是件好事了。政府可以利用這個機會，推出一些更加綠色的計劃。Q: In a talk before the Foreign Correspondents Club in Beijing, you said that 2014 saw energy return to the top of the world agenda in a way not seen since the 1970s. Can you elaborate on the implications for China?
問：在一次給外國記者協會(Foreign Correspondents Club)做的講座中，你說在2014年，能源以一種自七十年代以後前所未見的方式迴歸了世界首要議題之列。你能不能闡釋一下這對中國意味着什麼？A: In the U.S. in the 1970s there was a remarkable convergence of public policy, academic and NGO scrutiny of the impact of multinational companies on U.S. foreign policy. Much, although not all, of this attention was focused on the role of U.S. energy and other extractive industry firms. Because of the two OPEC oil shocks of the 1970s there was heightened concern about U.S. energy security in general, and many began to ask whether the private interests of American multinational companies was synonymous with the overall U.S. national interest. In response, policy makers passed legislation like the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, academics created the field of international political economy, and environmental and labor NGOs shined a new light on multinational companies’ behavior abroad.
答：在美國，20世紀70年代，公共政策、學術和非政府組織對跨國公司對美國外交政策影響的監督有一個顯著的融合。許多——儘管並非全部——的注意力都集中在了美國能源和其他採掘業企業所扮演的角色上。由於70年代的兩次OPEC石油危機，人們愈發關切美國的整體能源安全，且很多人也開始追問美國跨國公司的個體利益是否和美國整體的國家利益一致。作爲迴應，政策制定者通過了像《海外反腐敗法》(Foreign Corrupt Practices Act)這樣的法律，學者開拓了國際政治經濟學這一領域，環境與勞工類非政府組織也開始重新審視跨國公司的海外行爲。In the last decade, China has experienced a boom in its own outbound foreign direct investment, especially in energy and other extractive industries. In a variety of countries, such as Sudan, Myanmar and Venezuela, the behavior of Chinese state-owned firms and banks has arguably created unanticipated and unwanted foreign policy headaches. The time, therefore, seems ripe for China to experience its own renaissance in how its government and citizens understand and govern how Chinese firms’ foreign behavior impacts the national interest.
過去十年中，中國經歷了自己對外直接投資的激增，尤其是在能源和其他採掘業方面。在很多國家，比如蘇丹、緬甸和委內瑞拉，中國國有企業和銀行的行爲可以說帶來了意外和多餘的外交政策難題。所以現在是時候讓中國經歷其政府與公民對中國公司海外行爲如何影響國家利益的理解和管理方式的新生了。
