油價暴跌 受益的是大多數

The plunge in oil prices — to about $66 a barrel from over $107 in late June — has many pundits wringing their hands. They have cited the risks of falling prices and social and political unrest overseas, not to mention the economic threat to the booming mid-American oil basin, running from Texas to North Dakota and Alberta.

油價從6月底的每桶逾107美元（約合658元人民幣）降至約每桶66美元，這讓很多專家感到擔憂。他們提到了價格下跌及國外社會、政治動亂帶來的風險，更不用說美國中部地區——從德克薩斯州到北達科他州及艾伯塔的繁榮發展的油田面臨的經濟威脅。

But if history is any guide, it’s hard to see falling oil prices as anything but good news for everyone whose fortunes aren’t tied to oil, which is to say, most of the world’s population.

但從歷史來看，對於那些不靠石油盈利的人，也就是世界上的大部分人來說，很難把油價下跌看作壞消息。

“Every time you get a sudden move in oil prices, people say, ‘This is it, we’re finished,’ ” said Daniel Yergin, the author of “The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World,” and vice chairman of the energy consulting firm IHS. “People seem to forget that oil is a commodity, and like other commodities, its price moves in cycles set by supply and demand.”

“油價每次突然出現變動，人們都會說，‘就這樣了，我們完蛋了，’”《探祕：能源、安全和重塑當今世界》(The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World)的作者、能源諮詢公司IHS的副董事長丹尼爾·耶金(Daniel Yergin)說。“人們似乎忘了，石油是一種商品，與其他商品一樣，其價格是由供求決定的，會出現週期性變動。”

Although sudden price spikes seem to receive more media and political attention — Dr. Yergin noted that Teddy Roosevelt warned of the “imminent exhaustion” of oil in 1908 — oil gluts and price drops seem to happen with similar regularity. In 2008, oil went from $145 a barrel in July to $33 in mid-December, a plunge precipitated by the financial crisis and a collapse in global demand. While $33-a-barrel oil seems cheap now, in 1998 and 1986, oil dropped below $10 a barrel. That makes this latest decline the fourth precipitous fall in the last 30 years.

雖然油價的突然上升好像獲得了更多的媒體及政界關注——耶金指出西奧多·羅斯福(Teddy Roosevelt)總統曾在1908年警告稱石油“即將耗盡”，但石油過剩和油價下跌的情況出現的頻率似乎差不多。2008年，金融危機及全球需求的減少導致油價從7月的每桶145美元跌至12月中旬的每桶33美元。雖然每桶33美元的價格現在看起來很便宜，但在1998年和1986年，油價更是一度跌至每桶10美元以下。因此，最近一次下跌的跌幅在過去30年間排名第四。

While circumstances are never exactly the same, and the impact of cheap oil can be difficult to isolate from other economic factors, the broad consequence in each of these instances was the same: They stimulated global economic growth. Dr. Yergin estimated that global economic output would grow this year by an additional four-tenths of a percent with oil prices at $80 a barrel. If oil stays below $80, he said, “We may revise that to five-tenths.”

雖然情況並非完全相同，而且廉價石油帶來的影響很難與其他經濟因素分離開來，每次下跌帶來的廣泛後果都是相同的：刺激了全球經濟的發展。據耶金估計，如果油價停留在每桶80美元，全球經濟產出今年將額外增長0.4%。他表示，如果油價低於80美元，“我們可能會將這個數字調至0.5%。”

“The national average for a gallon of gas is already below $3 and headed lower,” said Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service. “Consumers will have more money to spend, and we expect to see this extend through the winter. It may well persist into 2016.”

“汽油的全國均價已經低至每加侖3美元，而且還將繼續下跌，”原油價格信息服務公司( Oil Price Information Service)首席石油分析師登頓·辛克格拉納(Denton Cinquegrana)說。“消費者將有更多的錢進行消費，我們預計，這種情況會持續整個冬天，可能還會持續到2016年。”

While it’s still too early to assess the holiday shopping season, November auto sales surged 4.6 percent from a year earlier to an annualized rate of 17.2 million vehicles. The top three sellers were pickup trucks: the Ford F-150, Chevrolet Silverado and Dodge Ram. While their fuel efficiency has improved over previous models, they’re still gas-guzzlers compared with a Toyota Prius or even a Cadillac sedan.

但現在估計購物季的情況仍然爲時過早，11月的汽車銷售年化同比增長4.6%，年化銷量達到1720萬輛。銷售量排名前三的都是皮卡：福特(Ford)F-150、雪佛蘭西爾維拉多(Chevrolet Silverado)和道奇公羊(Dodge Ram)。雖然與之前的車型相比，其節能性已經有所提高，但與豐田普銳斯(Toyota Prius)或凱迪拉克(Cadillac)轎車相比，這些汽車的油耗仍然非常大。

Apart from the benefits for consumers, previous bouts of low oil prices turned out to be great for stock prices, with the exception of the energy sector. In 1986, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index rose 18.67 percent in a bull run that lasted until the recession of 1991. In 1998, the index rose 25.58 percent and 21 percent the year after. And even though stocks collapsed in 2008, they staged a huge rally in 2009.

除了對消費者有利，前幾次的油價下跌結果都促使股價上漲，但能源領域的股票除外。1986年，標準普爾500指數(Standard & Poor’s 500)上漲了18.67%，牛市一直持續到1991年經濟衰退之前。1998年，標準普爾500指數攀升了25.58%，接下來一年上漲了21%。雖然股市在2008年陷入崩潰，但在2009年出現大幅上揚。

One caveat is that cheap oil may lead to pockets of excess. A year after the 1986 plunge, in October 1987, the stock market crashed on what became known as Black Monday, though it soon recovered. The two years after the 1998 drop led to the peak of the technology bubble, which popped in March 2000. Some pundits are now warning of new asset bubbles in the making.

一個警告是，廉價石油或許會導致市場出現泡沫。1986年油價下跌，一年之後，也就是在1987年10月，股市遇到了著名的黑色星期一(Black Monday)，但很快就恢復了。1998年油價下降，兩年之後，科技業泡沫達到頂峯，並於2000年3月破滅。一些專家警告稱新的資產泡沫正在形成。

This year’s price decline is most nearly analogous to 1986, Dr. Yergin said. Oil price plunges in 1998 and 2008 were set off by unexpected financial crises — the failure of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management and the Asian debt crisis in 1998, and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the ensuing Great Recession. In 1986, a surge in new supplies from the North Sea and Alaska, areas beyond the influence of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, drove down prices.

耶金表示，今年油價下跌的情況與1986年的情況非常相似。1998年及2008年的下跌都是由意想不到的金融危機引發的，比如1998年對衝基金長期資本管理公司(Long-Term Capital Management)的崩潰及亞洲債務危機，2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的破產，以及接下來的大衰退(Great Recession)。而在1986年，北海與阿拉斯加的石油供應激增，壓低了油價，這些地區不受石油輸出國組織(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)的影響。

This year, the precipitating factor has been the waning of threats of disruption from Russia and the Middle East, slowing economies in Europe and Asia and, above all, a surge in production from the United States and Canada. “This time, the innovation is fracking,” said Philip Verleger, president of an energy consulting firm and former director of the Office of Energy Policy in the Treasury Department. “The sudden surge in U.S. oil production has profoundly changed the dynamics of the markets. The oil exporters have lost a third of the market they thought they’d have in 2014.”

今年，油價下跌的原因在於俄羅斯及中東地區帶來的破壞威脅的減弱，以及歐洲、亞洲等地區經濟的放緩，尤其是美國及加拿大地區石油產量的增加。“這一次的革新是水力壓裂技術，”能源諮詢公司董事長、前財政部(Treasury Department)能源政策辦公室(Office of Energy Policy)主任菲利普·弗萊傑(Philip Verleger)說。“美國石油產量的突然增加極大地改變了市場動態。與石油輸出國預料的2014年的情況相比，它們失去了三分之一的市場份額。”

OPEC met on Thanksgiving, but shocked markets when its members didn’t even pay lip service to the need for production cuts or price discipline. The price of oil, traded on international markets, fell about 6.5 percent that day. “Their strategy is to let prices fall and squeeze out the higher-cost producers,” Mr. Verleger said. “It’s a battle for market share.”

石油輸出國組織於感恩節召開了會議，但是其成員國甚至沒有在口頭上表示需要減少產量或執行價格控制，這讓市場頗爲震驚。當天，在國際市場上交易的石油的價格下跌了大約6.5％。“他們的策略就是讓油價下跌，把生產成本較高的生產者擠出市場，”弗萊傑說。“這是一場爭奪市場份額的戰爭。”

Low oil prices aren’t an unmitigated blessing for the United States, since it’s now the world’s largest oil producer and may soon emerge as an oil exporter. OPEC’s strategy may be to let prices fall to a point where North American shale and tar sands production cease to be economically viable. “But that’s a dangerous game,” Mr. Cinquegrana said. “The shale producers keep lowering their costs of production thanks to technology.” Even Saudi Arabia needs $98-a-barrel oil to balance its budget, estimated Edward Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets.

對於美國而言，低油價並非是件絕對的好事，因爲它現在是世界上最大的產油國，而且或許很快就會變成石油出口國。OPEC的策略可能就是讓價格下跌到一個點，到達使北美的頁岩油產量和採自焦油砂的石油產量不再在經濟上具有可行性的程度。“但是，這是一個危險的遊戲，”辛克格拉納說。“多虧了科技，頁岩油生產商一直在降低他們的生產成本。”據花旗集團全球市場(Citigroup Global Markets)大宗商品研究的負責人愛德華·莫爾斯(Edward Morse)估計，連沙特阿拉伯都需要每桶98美元油來平衡預算。

For Saudi Arabia and other major oil-producing countries, “oil production and exports are a primary source of government revenues,” Mr. Morse wrote in a recent research report. “The oil prices required for oil revenues to balance government budgets are far higher than the $70-90 range, with several countries requiring oil prices of well above $100.”

對於沙特阿拉伯和其他主要產油國來說，“石油生產和出口是政府收入的一個主要來源，”莫爾斯在最近的一份研究報告中寫道。“爲了用石油收益來平衡政府預算，所需油價要遠高於每桶70~90美元的範圍，其中幾個國家還要求把油價設定在遠遠超過每桶100美元的程度。

He estimates Venezuela needs $161-a-barrel oil to break even this year after decades of cronyism and mismanagement of its energy sector under the leftist government of Hugo Chávez. “Venezuela is a world-class example of economic mismanagement,” Dr. Yergin noted. Oil prices below $80 a barrel “will be devastating.”

據他估計，數十年來，在烏戈·查韋斯(Hugo Chávez)的左翼政府領導下，委內瑞拉任人唯親，能源部門管理不善。今年，它需要把油價設定在每桶161美元，才能達到收支平衡。“在經濟管理不善的問題上，委內瑞拉是一個世界級的實例，”耶金指出。油價低於每桶80美元“將是毀滅性的”。

And then there’s Russia, which acknowledged this week that its economy had fallen into recession as a result of Western penalties over Ukraine and falling oil revenue. Over half of Russia’s national budget is financed by oil and gas revenue. This week, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, canceled Russia’s long-sought gas pipeline to Europe through Bulgaria and Serbia, which would have bypassed Ukraine.

此外，還有俄羅斯。俄羅斯本週承認，由於西方因爲烏克蘭問題對其施加制裁，再加上石油收益降低，其經濟已經陷入衰退。俄羅斯有超過一半的國家預算都來自石油和天然氣收益。本週，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京(Vladimir Putin)取消了通往歐洲的天然氣管道計劃——俄羅斯對這條經過保加利亞和塞爾維亞、繞開烏克蘭的管道期待已久。

Both Mr. Putin and Mr. Chávez came to power in the wake of economic turmoil brought on by the plunging oil prices in 1998. Mr. Putin succeeded Boris Yeltsin in 1999 after Russia defaulted on its sovereign debt. He vowed to restore Russia’s financial credibility and modernize its economy. Whether the latest oil price plunge and recession have any impact on his geopolitical adventurism remains to be seen. Mr. Chávez was elected in 1998 in the face of social unrest and falling oil revenue after OPEC imposed cuts in output.

普京和查韋斯都是在1998年油價暴跌帶來經濟動盪後上臺執政的。1999年，俄羅斯發生主權債務違約後，普京接替了鮑里斯·葉利欽(Boris Yeltsin)的職位。他發誓要恢復俄羅斯的金融信用，實現經濟現代化。究竟俄羅斯最近的油價暴跌和衰退是否會對他的地緣政治冒險主義產生影響，目前仍有待觀察。1998年，查韋斯當選，當時社會動盪，而且由於OPEC在實行減產，石油收益也出現下跌。

Both Mr. Putin and Nicolás Maduro, Mr. Chávez’s successor, have been vocal critics of the United States. Two other nemeses of the United States — Iran, which gets half its budget revenue from oil exports, and the militant group ISIS, which finances much of its activity from oil sales — will also suffer from low prices. The geopolitical consequences of low oil prices seem so aligned with the United States’ foreign policy interests that “some conspiracy theorists are saying that the U.S. and the Saudis want to punish the Russians and Iran,” Mr. Cinquegrana said.

普京和查韋斯的接班人尼古拉斯·馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)一直都是美國的強烈批評者。美國的另外兩個宿敵——一半預算收入都來自石油出口的伊朗，以及大部分活動資金都來自石油銷售的激進組織伊拉克與敘利亞伊斯蘭國（Islamic State in Iraq and Syria，簡稱ISIS）——都將因爲低油價而陷入困境。辛克格拉納說，低油價所產生的地緣政治影響，似乎符合美國外交政策的利益，“有些陰謀論者聲稱，美國和沙特阿拉伯想懲罰俄羅斯與伊朗。”

Moreover, two of the world’s largest emerging economies — China and India — are net energy importers, and their economies should benefit from low prices.

此外，世界上規模最大的兩個新興經濟體——中國和印度——都是能源淨進口國，低價格應該對他們的經濟有好處。

History suggests there will be far-reaching consequences from the latest plunge. “You have to keep your eye on potential social and political unrest,” Dr. Yergin said. “We’re just at the beginning of this cycle, and there are likely to be unforeseen consequences. But for the global economy as a whole, my view is this is very positive. Cheaper gas prices in November mean more money in cash registers in December.”

從歷史經驗來看，油價最近的暴跌將產生深遠影響。“你必須關注潛在的社會和政治動盪，”耶金說。“我們正處在一個週期的開端，很可能有些後果是無法預見的。但是對於整體全球經濟而言，我認爲這非常有益。11月油價下跌，就意味着12月，收銀機裏會出現更多現金。”