日本七分之一住房空置成"鬼屋"
Yoko Irie sweeps autumn leaves from the pavement outside the house that neither she nor anyone else has lived in for the past four years.
Other homeowners are less considerate – or even dead – hence the blight cast on Japan’s landscape by more than 8m akiya, or empty homes. Some houses are derelict, some marooned in overgrown grassy plots. Others – such as 61-year-old Ms Irie’s – are in fine condition, complete with underfloor heating and tatami room.
Japan’s zombie houses, which account for roughly one in seven homes, reflect a dwindling populace and what one analyst calls a “scrap and build” mentality. The population peaked in 2008 and with a fertility rate of 1.4 children per woman and minimal immigration, a reversal is not on the cards.
“For 10 empty houses there are 10 different reasons,” shrugs Shimada Shigeo, who as head of Akiya Bank has the task of reducing the ranks of 500 or so such houses in Isumi City, a small suburb of Chiba prefecture an hour by train from Tokyo.
相比之下，其他的屋主就沒有這麼考慮周到了——他們甚至可能已不在人世。目前，日本大地上散佈着逾800萬戶無人居住的空置房屋。部分房屋已被棄置，部分由於荒廢而長滿雜草。也有部分房屋則像61歲的Irie女士的房子一樣，處於精心打理之下，配備着地暖和榻榻米房間。
在日本，大約七分之一的房屋是空無一人的“鬼屋”。這一方面反映了人口的減少，另一方面則反映了被一位分析師稱爲是一種“房子壞了就蓋新的”心理。2008年，日本人口達到頂峯，並在此後一路下滑。由於日本的生育率是平均每位婦女只生養1.4名子女，移民所佔比例也極低，這種人口減少的態勢不太可能出現逆轉。
In the 1980s Japanese houses were typically built from wood and designed to last about 30 years. After 2000 that lifespan more than doubled to roughly 70 years, according to Wataru Sakakibara of the real estate division at Nomura Research Institute – still a blink of the eye by European standards.
根據野村綜合研究所(Nomura Research Institute)房地產部門Wataru Sakakibara的說法，上世紀80年代，典型的日本房屋都是木質結構，設計壽命大約是30年。2000年以後，日本房屋的設計壽命增加了不止一倍，達到大約70年。不過，相對歐洲標準來說，這也只是一眨眼的功夫。
“Given the many earthquakes, Japanese people didn’t contemplate making houses last any longer,” he says. “Instead, there was a notion to scrap and build.”
While other parts of the world focus on building more homes for expanding populations, Japan is faced with filling – or demolishing – its existing stock. Without any action, the government estimates 20 per cent of residential areas will become ghost towns by 2050, while Nomura reckons one in five homes will be empty by 2023.
Avoiding these scenarios would require overcoming structural obstacles, says Mr Sakakibara. It is expensive to bring in the wrecking ball – estimates vary from Y500,000-Y1m ($4,670-$9,340) – and doing so raises the owners’ tax bill on the land sixfold.
Under a policy devised at a time of population growth, fixed asset tax bills on land were reduced if owners built homes. Attempts to reverse this appear, so far, to have been unsuccessful.
That partly explains the unusual economics of housing in Japan, a country that once boasted the world’s most expensive real estate but where prices have more or less been in retreat since the 1992 peak. Houses themselves are a rapidly depreciating asset; Mr Sakakibara calculates that after 20 years the value resides only in the land.
Thus just 13.5 per cent of purchases were in the secondary market in 2008, the latest year for which government data are available. That compares with 90 per cent in the US in 2009 and 84 per cent in the UK in 2010.
Meanwhile, new houses and apartments continue to be built.
他說：“考慮到多發的地震，日本人並不打算把房子的年限做得太長。相反，人們有一種‘房子壞了就蓋新的’心理。”
全球其他國家主要把精力放在建造更多房屋容納更多人口上，而日本面臨的卻是如何填滿（或拆除）現存房屋的問題。日本政府估計，如果不採取任何措施，到2050年，20%的居民區將成爲鬼城。而根據野村證券(Nomura)的估計，到2023年五分之一的房屋將會空置。
Sakakibara表示，要避免這個問題，日本必須克服諸多體制性障礙。對於房主來說，拆掉舊房成本高昂——估計花費在50萬日元到100萬日元之間（合4670美元到9340美元）。此外，這麼做還會讓屋主的土地稅猛漲五倍。
根據一項在日本人口增長時期制定的政策，如果屋主建造房屋，按土地徵收的固定資產稅將會降低。到目前爲止，曾有人多次試圖逆轉這一政策，都沒有取得成功。
這部分解釋了日本房地產經濟的反常。日本曾以全球最昂貴的房地產價格而自豪。然而自1992年的峯值過後，日本房價進入了或快或慢地下跌狀態。住房本身已成爲一種迅速貶值的資產：據Sakakibara計算，只要20年，物業的價值就跌得只剩土地價值了。
因此，以日本政府公開數據的最近一年來看，2008年日本購房交易中只有13.5%的交易出自二手市場。相比之下，2009年美國這一比例是90%，2010年英國這一比例是84%。二手房佔比偏低的同時，新的住房和公寓不斷還在不斷被修建。
Other homeowners are less considerate – or even dead – hence the blight cast on Japan’s landscape by more than 8m akiya, or empty homes. Some houses are derelict, some marooned in overgrown grassy plots. Others – such as 61-year-old Ms Irie’s – are in fine condition, complete with underfloor heating and tatami room.
Japan’s zombie houses, which account for roughly one in seven homes, reflect a dwindling populace and what one analyst calls a “scrap and build” mentality. The population peaked in 2008 and with a fertility rate of 1.4 children per woman and minimal immigration, a reversal is not on the cards.
“For 10 empty houses there are 10 different reasons,” shrugs Shimada Shigeo, who as head of Akiya Bank has the task of reducing the ranks of 500 or so such houses in Isumi City, a small suburb of Chiba prefecture an hour by train from Tokyo.
相比之下，其他的屋主就沒有這麼考慮周到了——他們甚至可能已不在人世。目前，日本大地上散佈着逾800萬戶無人居住的空置房屋。部分房屋已被棄置，部分由於荒廢而長滿雜草。也有部分房屋則像61歲的Irie女士的房子一樣，處於精心打理之下，配備着地暖和榻榻米房間。
在日本，大約七分之一的房屋是空無一人的“鬼屋”。這一方面反映了人口的減少，另一方面則反映了被一位分析師稱爲是一種“房子壞了就蓋新的”心理。2008年，日本人口達到頂峯，並在此後一路下滑。由於日本的生育率是平均每位婦女只生養1.4名子女，移民所佔比例也極低，這種人口減少的態勢不太可能出現逆轉。
In the 1980s Japanese houses were typically built from wood and designed to last about 30 years. After 2000 that lifespan more than doubled to roughly 70 years, according to Wataru Sakakibara of the real estate division at Nomura Research Institute – still a blink of the eye by European standards.
根據野村綜合研究所(Nomura Research Institute)房地產部門Wataru Sakakibara的說法，上世紀80年代，典型的日本房屋都是木質結構，設計壽命大約是30年。2000年以後，日本房屋的設計壽命增加了不止一倍，達到大約70年。不過，相對歐洲標準來說，這也只是一眨眼的功夫。
“Given the many earthquakes, Japanese people didn’t contemplate making houses last any longer,” he says. “Instead, there was a notion to scrap and build.”
While other parts of the world focus on building more homes for expanding populations, Japan is faced with filling – or demolishing – its existing stock. Without any action, the government estimates 20 per cent of residential areas will become ghost towns by 2050, while Nomura reckons one in five homes will be empty by 2023.
Avoiding these scenarios would require overcoming structural obstacles, says Mr Sakakibara. It is expensive to bring in the wrecking ball – estimates vary from Y500,000-Y1m ($4,670-$9,340) – and doing so raises the owners’ tax bill on the land sixfold.
Under a policy devised at a time of population growth, fixed asset tax bills on land were reduced if owners built homes. Attempts to reverse this appear, so far, to have been unsuccessful.
That partly explains the unusual economics of housing in Japan, a country that once boasted the world’s most expensive real estate but where prices have more or less been in retreat since the 1992 peak. Houses themselves are a rapidly depreciating asset; Mr Sakakibara calculates that after 20 years the value resides only in the land.
Thus just 13.5 per cent of purchases were in the secondary market in 2008, the latest year for which government data are available. That compares with 90 per cent in the US in 2009 and 84 per cent in the UK in 2010.
Meanwhile, new houses and apartments continue to be built.
他說：“考慮到多發的地震，日本人並不打算把房子的年限做得太長。相反，人們有一種‘房子壞了就蓋新的’心理。”
全球其他國家主要把精力放在建造更多房屋容納更多人口上，而日本面臨的卻是如何填滿（或拆除）現存房屋的問題。日本政府估計，如果不採取任何措施，到2050年，20%的居民區將成爲鬼城。而根據野村證券(Nomura)的估計，到2023年五分之一的房屋將會空置。
Sakakibara表示，要避免這個問題，日本必須克服諸多體制性障礙。對於房主來說，拆掉舊房成本高昂——估計花費在50萬日元到100萬日元之間（合4670美元到9340美元）。此外，這麼做還會讓屋主的土地稅猛漲五倍。
根據一項在日本人口增長時期制定的政策，如果屋主建造房屋，按土地徵收的固定資產稅將會降低。到目前爲止，曾有人多次試圖逆轉這一政策，都沒有取得成功。
這部分解釋了日本房地產經濟的反常。日本曾以全球最昂貴的房地產價格而自豪。然而自1992年的峯值過後，日本房價進入了或快或慢地下跌狀態。住房本身已成爲一種迅速貶值的資產：據Sakakibara計算，只要20年，物業的價值就跌得只剩土地價值了。
因此，以日本政府公開數據的最近一年來看，2008年日本購房交易中只有13.5%的交易出自二手市場。相比之下，2009年美國這一比例是90%，2010年英國這一比例是84%。二手房佔比偏低的同時，新的住房和公寓不斷還在不斷被修建。
