美朝峯會:你需要知道的五件事
Donald Trump has agreed to a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the coming weeks, a breakthrough in relations between two nations that just months ago appeared on the brink of conflict.
唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)已同意在未來幾周與朝鮮領導人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)會晤，這是兩國關係的一個突破。僅僅幾個月前，兩國關係還處於衝突的邊緣。Why a summit is a big deal
美朝峯會爲何是一件大事？No US president has ever met a leader of North Korea. As commander-in-chief, Mr Trump will be able to talk directly to Mr Kim, potentially building trust and cutting out the painstaking process of shuttling messages between emissaries. North Korea has put on the table the prospect of abandoning its nuclear programme — a top foreign policy objective for Mr Trump.
歷史上還沒有美國總統與朝鮮領導人會晤的先例。作爲總司令，特朗普將能夠直接與金正恩進行對話，這可能會建立信任，省掉通過使者傳遞信息的繁瑣過程。朝鮮已經把放棄核武計劃的可能性（這是特朗普的首要外交政策目標）放到桌面上。
Potential pitfalls
潛在陷阱是什麼？North Korea has a long history of offering to denuclearise only to renege on its promises after dragging out arduous negotiations. As part of its recent overtures to Seoul and Washington, the Kim regime has agreed to stop testing its long-range missiles. But it is likely that North Korean scientists and technicians are still working on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programme. From the US perspective, a May summit leaves little time to prepare and Washington is already missing a host of top diplomats and specialists who work on North Korea.
先是表態要棄核、結果在磨磨蹭蹭地艱難談判之後背棄承諾——朝鮮在這方面有很長的歷史。作爲最近向首爾和華盛頓伸出橄欖枝的一部分，金氏政權同意暫停試射遠程導彈。但朝鮮科學家和技術人員很可能仍在推進平壤的核武計劃。從美國的視角看，沒有多少時間爲5月峯會做準備，華盛頓已經失去了一大批研究朝鮮問題的高級外交官和專家。How we got here
美朝峯會是怎麼提出的？While news of the summit comes has surprised many observers, the event was months in the making. For the past year, Washington has exerted unprecedented pressure on the Kim regime through sanctions and diplomatic isolation. These punitive measures were likely to have coaxed Mr Kim to the table. The process of diplomacy, meanwhile, has been spearheaded by South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who used last month’s Winter Olympics to extend an olive branch to Pyongyang. The offer of the summit was extended to Mr Trump via a South Korean envoy, who visited Mr Kim earlier in the week.
儘管峯會的消息讓許多觀察人士感到意外，但它已經醞釀了數月時間。在過去一年裏，華盛頓通過制裁和外交孤立對金氏政權施加了前所未有的壓力。這些懲罰性措施很可能說服金正恩回到談判桌前。與此同時，韓國總統文在寅(Moon Jae-in)開啓了外交進程，他利用上月的冬奧會將橄欖枝遞給平壤。峯會提議是通過最近訪問金正恩的韓國特使團轉達給特朗普的。Who stands to gain
誰會受益？On the surface, it is a win-win situation for all leaders. Mr Trump demonstrates that his signature foreign policy initiative is making headway. Mr Kim garners domestic prestige and the international spotlight from meeting a US president for the first time. Mr Moon reaps the rewards of successful diplomacy and the benefits of reduced tension on the Korean peninsula, which months ago appeared close to conflict. Trouble may arise later, however, if talks begin to flounder.
表面看來，這對所有領導人來說是共贏的。特朗普得以展示他的標誌性外交政策舉措取得進展。金正恩因首次與美國總統會晤而在國內獲得聲望，併成爲國際社會關注的焦點。文在寅獲得成功外交的回報和朝鮮半島緊張局勢緩和所帶來的益處——幾個月前朝鮮半島似乎瀕臨衝突。然而，如果談判不順利，麻煩可能在稍後出現。
Likelihood of success
成功的機率有多大？For Mr Kim, simply hosting the meeting will count as a success as it will generate prestige and legitimacy for the reclusive regime. For the US leader, the equation is more complex. Experts are sceptical that Pyongyang will genuinely give up its nuclear programme, which it views as a deterrent to US aggression. The regime may promise to do so but history shows it has a poor record of upholding such pledges. In 1994 it signed the Agreed Framework to freeze its plutonium weapons programme in exchange for aid. The deal collapsed in 2002 amid US intelligence revelations that the regime was secretly pursuing a uranium enrichment programme. In 2005 Pyongyang committed to de-nuclearisation following multilateral talks; it tested its first nuclear device the very next year.
對於金正恩來說，僅僅迎接並會晤美國總統就算得上成功，因爲它將給這個與世隔絕的政權帶來威望和合法性。對於美國領導人來說，盤算更爲複雜。專家們對平壤是否會真正放棄核武計劃持懷疑態度——朝鮮認爲擁有核武器會威懾美國，使其不敢侵略自己。平壤政權可能承諾放棄核武，但歷史表明，它在信守此類承諾方面的記錄不佳。1994年，它簽署了凍結其鈈武器計劃的《框架協議》(Agreed Framework)以換取援助。2002年，美國情報部門發現朝鮮政權祕密推進鈾濃縮計劃，協議因此告吹。2005年，平壤在多邊會談後承諾棄核，卻在第二年就進行了首次核試驗。
