人民幣兌美元匯率降至四年多來最低

The renminbi closed at its softest level in more than four years against the dollar on Tuesday as investors continued to fret about the capital outflows evident from currency reserve data published earlier in the week.

週二人民幣對美元匯率收於四年多來最低點，本週早些時候公佈的外匯儲備數據促使投資者繼續擔憂資本外流。

Weakness was even more marked in the more volatile offshore market, where the spread between onshore and offshore rates reached its highest in more than three months, implying investors expect China’s currency to continue weakening.

在波動較大的離岸市場，人民幣弱勢更爲顯著，在岸市場與離岸市場的匯率差達到三個多月來的最高水平，這意味着投資者預期人民幣匯率將繼續走低。

Tuesday’s onshore daily “fix” by the People’s Bank of China set the renminbi at Rmb6.4078 to the dollar, 0.15 per cent weaker than Monday, and the pair later closed at Rmb6.4179. The offshore rate — not restricted like its onshore counterpart to a 2 per cent band either side of the fix rate — fell by 0.3 per cent twice and closed at Rmb6.4919 — just shy of its Rmb6.5112 peak late in August.

週二(12月8日），中國人民銀行(PBoC)設定的在岸人民幣每日參考匯率爲1美元兌6.4078元人民幣，比周一降低0.15%，該匯率收於1美元兌6.4179元人民幣。不像在岸匯率那樣受2%浮動區間限制的離岸人民幣匯率，兩次下跌0.3%，收於1美元兌6.4919元人民幣，逼近今年8月下旬1美元兌6.5112元人民幣的峯值。

The renminbi’s weakness was considered a sign that investors were testing just how far and how fast China was prepared to let its currency decline as it manages a slowing economy. Forecasts for a softer renminbi have grown bolder since the currency was givenreserve status by the International Monetary Fund late last month.

人民幣疲軟被視爲一個信號，表明投資者在試探中國在應對經濟放緩的同時願意讓人民幣貶值走多遠、走多快。繼上月底國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)授予人民幣儲備貨幣資格後，對人民幣進一步貶值的預測變得更加肯定。

“It appears that China’s central bank intends to engineer a managed depreciation in the renminbi as the economy slows, which makes sense from both policy and economic perspectives,” said Commerzbank strategist Zhou Hao, who said further weakness was “inevitable”.

“隨着經濟放緩，中國央行看來有意安排人民幣進行可控的貶值，這無論是從政策還是經濟角度來說都是合理的。”德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)策略師周浩表示。他認爲進一步貶值是“不可避免的”。

He also highlighted investor fears that the recent rise in volatility would spike further — another factor likely to weigh on the currency.

他還強調，投資者擔心近期有所上升的波動性將會進一步飆升，這是另一個可能拖累人民幣匯率的因素。

“Of course, there is little doubt that PBoC will intervene intensively when they deem that market volatility is too high,” he added.

“當然，如果他們認爲市場波動過大，中國央行無疑將會高強度干預，”他補充說。

The onshore renminbi has fallen about 3 per cent against the dollar so far this year, leaving China’s exporters at a competitive disadvantage compared with many Asian rivals whose currencies have fallen further — and also against those of the eurozone, whose currency has weakened more than 10 per cent.

今年以來，在岸人民幣對美元匯率下跌了3%，令中國出口商與許多貨幣貶值幅度更大的亞洲國家、以及貨幣貶值幅度超過10%的歐元區國家的對手相比處於競爭劣勢。

HSBC strategists on Tuesday said they had lowered their 2016 year-end forecast for the renminbi to Rmb6.7 from Rmb6.6 previously.

匯豐(HSBC)策略師週二表示，他們已將2016年底人民幣兌換美元的匯率預測從原來的1美元兌6.6元人民幣下調到1美元兌6.7元人民幣。

Goldman Sachs has a target of Rmb6.6 by the end of next year.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)對明年底人民幣匯率的目標是1美元兌6.6元人民幣。