新興經濟體國民儲蓄習慣大不同
Many financial market participants view emerging markets as one amorphous bloc but, in reality, the differences between the countries and regions of the EM firmament can far outweigh their similarities.
很多金融市場參與者都將新興市場視爲一個鬆散的羣體，但實際上，在新興市場世界中，國與國、地區與地區之間的差異可能遠遠超過相似之處。
One glaring example of this is in their household savings rates. People in emerging Asia typically saved 41.5 per cent of their income last year, according to the International Monetary Fund, the highest rate in the world.
其中一個明顯的例子體現在家庭儲蓄率上。根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數據，去年亞洲新興經濟體的民衆一般將收入的41.5%儲蓄起來，儲蓄率是全世界最高的。
In stark contrast, those in Latin America put aside just 17.6 per cent, and sub-Saharan Africans just 13.7 per cent.
與之形成鮮明對比的是，拉丁美洲的國民儲蓄率僅爲17.6%，而撒哈拉以南非洲地區的儲蓄率僅爲13.7%。
The latter can be excused their low savings levels. With per capita gross domestic product of just $3,800 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, far too many Africans simply lack the wherewithal to save.
後一地區的儲蓄水平這麼低是有原因的。以購買力平價(PPP)計算，撒哈拉以南非洲地區的人均國內生產總值(GDP)僅3800美元——太多的非洲人只是沒錢儲蓄。
But the typical Latin American has no such excuse. Their per capita income by this measure is $15,400, above the emerging market average of $10,600.
但是，拉美人一般不存在這種藉口。以購買力平價計算，拉美的人均國民收入爲15400美元，高於新興市場10600美元的平均水平。
Those living in what the IMF defines as “emerging and developing Asia” (a grouping that excludes Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore, deemed emerging by some) are markedly poorer, earning an average of $9,900 in PPP terms last year. Yet their savings rate towers over anywhere else on the planet.
那些被IMF定義爲“亞洲新興和發展中經濟體”（不包括香港、臺灣、韓國和新加坡這幾個在一些人看來也屬於新興世界的經濟體）的民衆明顯更貧困，以購買力平價計算，去年該地區的人均國民收入爲9900美元。不過，他們的儲蓄率居全球之冠。
These patterns hold pretty much across their respective regions. As the chart shows, savings rates are higher in 12 of the 13 largest emerging Asian economies than in any of the eight Latam heavyweights.
這些儲蓄模式在它們各自所屬地區的基本每個經濟體都成立。如下面的圖表所示，亞洲13個最大的新興經濟體中有12個的儲蓄率均高於拉美八大新興經濟體。
This pattern holds almost irrespective of whether an Asian country is richer than its peers in Latin America (eg Singapore, with a per capita GDP of $85,300 or Taiwan at $46,800) or poorer (such as Bangladesh at $3,600 or Vietnam, $6,000). The only exception is Pakistan.
無論是比拉美新興經濟體更富有的亞洲新興經濟體（比如人均GDP爲85300美元的新加坡和人均GDP爲46800美元的臺灣），還是更貧困的（比如人均GDP爲3600美元的孟加拉國或是人均GDP爲6000美元的越南），這種模式基本上都成立，唯一的例外是巴基斯坦。
As such, some believe the explanation for the divergent behaviour is largely cultural.
因此，一些人認爲這種儲蓄行爲上的差異主要是由於文化原因。
“As an Indian, when you grow up in a scarce resource economy you learn to preserve resources and save,” says Rahul Chadha, chief investment officer at Mirae Asset Management.
“作爲一個印度人，當你在資源稀缺的經濟中成長時，你會學會保存資源和存錢，”未來資產資產管理公司(Mirae Asset Management)的首席投資官拉胡爾•查達(Rahul Chadha)表示。
“If you talk to an Indian 30-year-old, his first priority would be to pay the mortgage and the same would be the case in China,” says Mr Chadha, who adds that the family-based pooling of wealth common in countries such as India means “leverage is frowned upon”.
“如果你跟一個30歲的印度人聊一聊，你就會知道，他的首要任務是還房貸，中國的情況也是一樣，”查達表示。他補充稱，在印度這樣的國家，每個家庭往往都有自己的家庭共用財富，這意味着“貸款是讓人皺眉頭的事情”。
Marios Maratheftis, chief economist at Standard Chartered, also believes that when it comes to Asia’s exceptionalism “part of it is cultural”. Nevertheless, he believes this is far from uniform with, for example, Malaysia having “a higher debt service ratio in its household sector than the US had in 2007” in the lead-up to the financial crisis.
渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)首席經濟學家馬里奧斯•馬拉泰蒂斯(Marios Maratheftis)也認爲，亞洲存在這種特殊性的“部分原因是文化”。話雖如此，他相信亞洲並不全都如此，例如馬來西亞“家庭的債務收入比率(debt service ratio)就比2007年（金融危機到來前）的美國更高”。
“One take on it is that it’s all cultural, that Latin Americans live for the moment and Asians are all very diligent and hard-working and have a natural tendency to save,” says Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
“一種看法是，這完全是因爲文化，拉美人活在當下，而亞洲人全都非常勤奮、努力工作、天生愛存錢，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)首席新興市場經濟學家尼爾•希林(Neil Shearing)表示。
However, while Mr Shearing says “there might be something to that” he believes such an answer is also “slightly lazy”.
然而，儘管希林表示“這或許有些道理”，但是他認爲這樣的答案也“有點偷懶”。
“It’s easy to say that in Brazil, they like football and samba and they sit on the beach and they spend all the money they get.
“巴西人熱愛足球和桑巴、喜歡坐在沙灘上休閒、有多少花多少，這樣的答案說起來容易。”
“But the Philippines has very low domestic savings rate [with gross savings 23.7 of GDP last year, the IMF estimates], whereas China has a high one [46 per cent]. If it is all cultural, and all Asians are the same, then why is it different within regions?” he asks.
“但是菲律賓的家庭儲蓄率非常低（IMF估計，去年該國的國民儲蓄相當於GDP的23.7%），而中國的儲蓄率較高（46%）。如果完全是因爲文化差異，並且所有的亞洲人都一樣，那麼地區內部爲什麼有差別？”他問道。
Mr Shearing believes a bigger factor is the level of state welfare provision, with many Asians choosing to save more to compensate for the relatively threadbare safety nets common in the region.
希林認爲，更大的原因在於國家福利保障水平，很多亞洲人選擇多存錢，以彌補該地區普遍相對薄弱的安全網。
Brazil, for instance, has a “wide safety net and a pension system where you have to make almost minimal contributions in return for a decent pension”, he says.
他稱，例如，巴西擁有“覆蓋廣泛的安全網和養老金制度，你只需要繳納一點點錢就能換取體面的養老金”。
Replacement ratios, which measure an individual’s post-retirement income relative to their pre-retirement salary, “are among the highest in the world [in Brazil] and all funded by government. In Asia, welfare safety nets are much smaller,” says Mr Shearing.
養老金替代率是衡量個人退休後收入相對退休前工資有多高的指標。巴西的養老金替代率“居於全球最高之列，而且全部由政府支付，在亞洲，福利安全網覆蓋面要小得多”，希林表示。
Mr Maratheftis agrees, arguing that in the likes of India, Indonesia and China, a lot of household saving is “precautionary”, that would not exist if these countries had better publicly-funded healthcare or pension systems.
馬拉泰蒂斯對此也表示贊同，他認爲，在印度、印尼和中國之類的國家，很多家庭存錢是“爲有備無患”，如果這些國家擁有更好的公費醫療體系和養老金制度，人們就不會存錢了。
As for Latin America, he believes that a continent notorious for “a history of high inflation wiping out savings” is unlikely to be one where high levels of saving have become the norm.
至於拉美，他認爲在這個有着“高通脹吞噬存款的不光彩歷史”的地區，較高的儲蓄水平不太可能成爲常態。
Mr Shearing believes another piece of the jigsaw, and one that can help explain the divide between China and the Philippines, is demographics.
希林認爲，存款差異的另一個原因是人口統計特徵，這也有助於解釋中國和菲律賓之間的差異。
The Philippines has a much younger population than its northern neighbour (with a median age of 23.2 versus 36.8 in China, according to the CIA World Factbook), and older workers tend to save more for retirement, he argues.
菲律賓的人口比中國年輕得多（據《中情局世界概況》(CIA World Factbook)數據顯示，菲律賓人口的年齡中位數爲23.2歲，中國爲36.8歲）。他認爲，年齡較大的勞動者往往爲退休儲蓄更多錢。
The question of whether or not a high or low savings rate is preferable, and thus which continent has a better model, probably comes down to personal opinion.
有關高（或低）水平的儲蓄率是否更好、乃至亞洲和拉丁美洲的儲蓄模式哪種更好的問題，很可能仁者見仁智者見智。
Mr Shearing points out that a minimum level of domestic savings is necessary to fund investment, unless a country opts to rely on foreign funding, which can have a nasty habit of evaporating just when it is most needed.
希林指出，家庭儲蓄率有支撐投資所必需的最低水平——除非這個國家選擇依靠往往在最需要的時候跑得一乾二淨的外國資金。
The downsides of a Brazilian-style welfare state are also apparent at present, with the federal government struggling to find the spending cuts deemed necessary to tackle a budget deficit running at more than 10 per cent of GDP, given that around 95 per cent of government spending, in areas such as pensions and education, is earmarked by the constitution.
目前，巴西式福利國家的壞處也很明顯：解決（相當於GDP逾10%的）預算赤字需要削減支出，但鑑於約有95%的政府支出（比如在養老金和教育等領域）是由憲法規定的，巴西聯邦政府無處下手。
Given the country’s mix of relatively low pension savings but relatively generous pension provision, with the shortfall covered by the government, it is perhaps unsurprising that Brazil’s pension system is widely perceived as heading for the rocks.
考慮到巴西的養老金儲蓄水平相對較低、但養老金供給又比較慷慨（缺口由政府填平），人們普遍認爲巴西的養老金體系正在走向毀滅或許就不足爲奇了。
Allianz rated Brazil as having the second least sustainable pension system among 50 countries in 2014 (better only than Thailand), while Mercer last year ranked it as the third least sustainable (ahead of Italy and Austria) among 25 states.
2014年，安聯集團(Allianz)認爲巴西的養老金體系是50個國家中第二難以持續的（僅好於泰國）；去年，美世(Mercer)將巴西的養老金體系列爲25個國家中第三難以持續的（好於意大利和奧地利）。
Mr Shearing goes further, arguing against Brazil-style welfare states that “extend right up the income distribution” as “the people who benefit the most tend to be middle and upper classes who get good pensions”.
希林還更進一步，反對巴西這類“直接促進收入分配向上傾斜”的福利國家，因爲“受益最大的往往是擁有豐厚養老金的中上層階級”。
On the other hand, it is likely that China would have more success in its ongoing drive to rebalance its economy away from investment to consumption if it was to beef up its welfare system, reducing the need for households to make precautionary savings.
另一方面，如果中國鞏固其福利體系、降低家庭的預防性存款需求，它正在進行的從投資拉動型轉向消費拉動型的經濟再平衡將取得更多成功。
“If you get improvements in welfare, that would help,” says Mr Maratheftis.
“如果你的福利得到改善，會對此有幫助，”馬拉泰蒂斯稱。
An alternative view would be that, in an increasingly globalised and materialistic world, younger Asians will start to behave more like their peers elsewhere, irrespective of government policies.
另一種觀點是，在這個日益全球化和物質化的世界，無論政府的政策如何，年輕一代的亞洲人都將表現得更像其他地區的同齡人。
Mr Chadha says he is far from convinced his own children or grandchildren will have the same desire to save as his generation of Indians did, while his younger Chinese colleagues also appear to be bucking the trend of their countrymen and women.
查達稱他根本不相信他自己的下一代或再下一代會像他這一代印度人一樣愛存錢，與此同時，他年輕的中國同事似乎也在逆轉中國人的儲蓄趨勢。
“I’m surprised how much they spend. They have a different perspective towards life,” he reports.
“他們花錢的手筆讓我感到吃驚。他們有不同的生活態度。”他表示。
