中國農民工增速降至年以來最低

The growth rate of China’s migrant workforce has fallen to levels not seen since the depths of the global financial crisis.

中國農民工總量增速已降至本次金融危機最嚴重時期以來最低水平。

The total number of migrant workers rose 1.3 per cent in 2015 to 277.8m, the slowest rate since 2009 according to data available from the National Bureau of Statistics.

據中國國家統計局公佈的數據，2015年農民工總人數上升1.3%，至2.778億人。這是2009年以來的最低增速。

In 2014 the number of migrant workers had increased 1.9 per cent of 2014, on par with growth in 2009. But growth in China’s mobile workforce jumped to 5.4 per cent year-on-year in 2010, thanks in part to a major stimulus package that revved up economic activity through infrastructure projects and real estate development – and which has left a fraught legacy of overcapacity as the country attempts to transition toward a more services-oriented economy.

2014年農民工總數增加了1.9%，與2009年增幅相當。但2010年農民工總數同比激增5.4%，部分原因是一項重大刺激計劃，該計劃通過基礎設施項目和房地產開發推動經濟活動。但隨着中國試圖轉型成更以服務業爲導向的經濟，該計劃也留下了產能過剩這個令人擔憂的遺產。

Now China’s “migrant miracle” – in which cheap, mobile labour subsidized an export-driven manufacturing sector – is drawing to a close.

中國的廉價流動勞動力曾對出口驅動型製造業有利好效應，但如今，這一“農民工奇蹟”正接近尾聲。

Adding to downward pressure on the growth rate is a demographic downshift: the share of migrant workers above age 30 rose to 67.1 per cent last year, up from 57.6 per cent in 2010, according to the latest figures from the statistics bureau.

同時，人口增速放慢也加大了農民工增速的下行壓力。根據中國國家統計局最新數據，30歲以上農民比例去年攀升至67.1%，2010年爲57.6%，