中國輪值G20主席國，將如何改變世界？

二十國集團（G20）杭州峯會將於9月召開。在這一平臺上，發達國家和發展中國家將作爲平等夥伴，就如何應對全球經濟挑戰、改善全球經濟治理、加速世界經濟發展進行探討和合作。世界輿論普遍認爲，作爲本屆峯會的東道國和世界第二大經濟體，中國有能力確保這次峯會的成功，併爲世界經濟的振興作出重要貢獻。

The G20 summit to be held in the Chinese city of Hangzhou in early September is unlike any previous one: it will be hosted by the largest developing country in the world. But a key question remains: can China succeed in shaking the world's 20 biggest economies out of their torpor?
二十國集團（G20）峯會將於九月初在中國杭州舉行。與過去歷屆峯會不同，此次峯會將由世界上最大的發展中國家主辦。但關鍵問題是：中國能否讓世界20大經濟體復甦？

China has high hopes for chairing a successful G20 summit, the country's biggest diplomatic event of the year. Plenty is already on the table, including a Beijing-led push to upgrade the G20 from a crisis response mechanism to a long-term governance platform.
G20峯會是中國年度外交盛事，而中國也非常有信心能成功舉辦此次峯會。許多話題已經引起了熱議，其中包括中國提出的推動G20從危機應對向長效治理機制轉型。

The economic weight and Growing agility of China in managing international affairs, experts say, would prove advantageous in getting things done at the forum, particularly in bringing major industrialized economies as well as emerging markets together to tackle the root causes of faltering global growth.
專家表示，中國處理國際事務的靈活性不斷提高，加上如今的國際經濟地位，將有利於推動峯會成果的達成，特別是將主要的工業經濟體以及新興市場團結起來，共同從根源上解決世界經濟增長乏力的問題。

Long-term governance
長效治理

The G20 mechanism, as a primary platform for international economic cooperation, has long focused on coordinating monetary and fiscal policies among the world's top developed and developing nations in response to global financial crises.
G20機制是一個國際經濟合作的主要平臺，一直致力於協調世界主要發達國家與發展中國家的貨幣和財政政策，以應對全球金融危機。

But after eight years of slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, an urgency can be felt across G20 members for collective action on more fundamental aspects of the global economy.
但自2008年金融危機爆發以來，世界經濟復甦緩慢。因此，G20成員認爲各國必須在全球經濟更重大的領域中進行合作。

A highlight of the upcoming summit will be developing a G20 blueprint for innovative growth, which includes a concrete action plan for building a new industrial revolution and the digital economy.
此次G20峯會的一大亮點就是制定G20創新增長藍圖，包括建設新工業革命和數字經濟的具體行動計劃。

"It is the first G20 summit with a focus on the long-term impetus of global growth," said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a briefing late May.
中國外交部長王毅在五月底的一箇中外媒體吹風會上表示：“這是G20首次聚焦全球經濟增長的中長期動力。”

"Fiscal and monetary policies can only serve as countercyclical tools that help smooth out volatility in the short term," said Professor Zhu Jiejin of Fudan University. "It's just like medicine. It may cure an illness, but does not strengthen the health of an economy."
“財政和貨幣政策只能作爲一種反週期的工具，在短期內緩解經濟波動”，復旦大學教授朱傑金說道，“就像是藥物一樣，它能緩解病情，卻不能增強體質。”

Zhu said the consensus on innovation had been a hard-won achievement under the Chinese presidency, especially given the severe market volatility in the first quarter of 2016.
朱教授表示，2016年第一季度的市場波動極大，而中國作爲G20輪值主席國，能促進各國在創新方面達成一致，這實屬不易。

"It is not easy for China to stay focused on a long-term agenda when some are calling for short-term stimulus packages," Zhu said.
“一些國家謀求短期內的經濟刺激計劃，因此中國要聚焦在長期議題上並不容易”，朱教授說道。

Swiss Finance Minister Ueli Maurer underlined China's emphasis on fostering innovation and other structural reforms, which, he said, were important to raise productivity and ensure the quality and sustainability of growth.
瑞士財政部長於利•毛雷爾強調，中國將重點放在了推動創新和其他結構性改革上。他表示，這對於提高生產力和確保高質量、可持續的增長是非常重要的。

"In this respect, the G20 Blueprint on Innovative Growth represents an ambitious agenda toward a new paradigm for growth based on knowledge and on new and cleaner technologies," he told Xinhua. "Many countries have, since the global financial crisis of 2008/09, relied too heavily on monetary and fiscal easing,"
“而在這方面，《G20創新增長藍圖》體現了以知識和新潔淨科技爲基礎的增長模式的轉變，這是一個非常宏偉的目標”，他向新華社記者表示，“自2008年全球金融危機爆發以來，許多國家都過於依賴貨幣和財政寬鬆政策了。”

Another eye-catching item on the agenda is going to be outlining steps to implement the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the first time development is being given priority in a global macro-policy framework.
峯會日程上的另一個亮點議題就是制定計劃以實施聯合國《2030年可持續發展議程》，發展問題首次在全球宏觀政策框架佔據了突出位置。

Huang Wei, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that "developed countries cannot thrive alone in this increasingly interconnected world. Developed and developing countries need to pool their resources to reverse sagging global growth."
中國社科院研究員黃薇表示：“在這個各國聯繫日益緊密的世界裏，發達國家僅憑藉一己之力是無法繁榮的。發達國家和發展中國家需要進行資源共享，才能扭轉全球經濟增速放緩的困境。”

Huang noted the systematic nature of implementing the United Nations development goals, which incorporate social and environmental dimensions as well as growth. "Only with a holistic approach can we solve fundamental problems in the global economy," she told Xinhua. "The G20 used to deal with only specific problems."
黃薇還表示，實施聯合國可持續發展議程是一個系統的過程，包括社會、環境和發展等方面。“我們只能用一個整體的方案來解決全球經濟的重大問題”，她對新華社記者說道，“過去，G20峯會僅僅是解決某些特定的問題。”

According to Chen Fengying, a researcher with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, the G20 has expanded its main policy goal for strong, sustainable and balanced growth that was laid down at the Pittsburgh summit in 2009. "It is not easy for China to host a fruitful summit when there is no apparent crisis," she said. "But China has made an uNPRecedented contribution to the G20 by charting out a new future."
中國現代國際關係研究院的研究員陳鳳英表示，爲了實現2009年匹茲堡峯會上提出的 “強勁、可持續和平衡增長”目標 ，G20已進一步增加了其主要政策目標。“目前，經濟危機的跡象不明顯，中國要保證這次的G20峯會取得豐富成果並非易事”，陳鳳英說道，“但中國爲G20繪就了發展新藍圖，作出了前所未有的貢獻。”

Moreover, amid sluggish trade and weak investment, the G20 under China's presidency this year opened up a new and more substantive avenue for stimulating growth: a trade ministers meeting to promote international trade and investment.
而且，在全球貿易和投資增長乏力之際，中國作爲G20輪值主席國，在今年開闢了全新的、更具實質性的渠道——舉辦旨在促進全球貿易投資增長的貿易部長會議，以刺激經濟增長。

"We cracked some real issues, because China took the initiative of setting up the trade and investment working group and put in lots of work, which has been very productive," said Rita Teaotia, commerce secretary of the Indian Department of Commerce.
印度商務部部長麗塔•蒂奧烏沙表示：“由於中國首創了G20貿易投資工作組，並開展了許多富有成效的工作，我們才得以解決了一些棘手的問題。”

"From the Hangzhou summit onward," said Chen, "there will be two wheels driving the G20, with the traditional finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, and the new mechanism of trade ministers' meeting."
陳鳳英說：“杭州G20峯會召開後，兩個‘輪子’將助力推動G20峯會的展開，那就是傳統的財長會議和央行行長會議以及新引入的貿易部長會議機制。”

This could be one of the biggest breakthroughs at this year's summit. Many of the long-term structural problems in the global economy have to do with trade and investment, she said.
“這可能會成爲今年杭州G20峯會最大的突破之一。全球經濟中許多長期結構性問題都與貿易和投資相關，”她說。

Shaping the agenda
完善峯會議程

At this year's G20 summit, China will also be playing a more prominent role in international affairs.
在今年的G20峯會上，中國將會在國際事務中發揮更突出的作用。

"This will be the first time that China hosts a global economic governance summit, unlike chairing regional meetings such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation," said Chen. "It is a good opportunity for China to exercise its power in global economics."
“這是中國首次舉辦商討全球經濟治理的峯會，這與舉行亞太經合組織會議等區域性會議不一樣”，陳鳳英說，“這是中國在世界經濟中展示力量的好時機。”

She explained that because the G20 is an international forum with no secretariat or enforcing agencies, the outcome of the summit is to a large extent determined by the will of the host country.
她解釋道，G20作爲一個國際論壇，沒有常設的祕書處，也沒有執行機構。所以，G20峯會能取得什麼樣的成果很大程度上取決於主辦國。

"As a big country, China has the influence to push for specific goals, especially when they coincide with the interests of other countries," she said, praising China's concrete action plans in the context of vaguer pledges of past years.
“作爲一個有影響力的大國，中國能夠推動達成特定的目標，特別是那些與其他國家的利益相契合的目標，”陳鳳英說道。相對於以前定下的相對模糊的承諾，她認爲中國製定的具體行動計劃確實值得稱讚。

Zhu stressed that China, as the biggest developing country, has the responsibility to promote more balanced governance of the global economy.
朱教授強調，中國作爲最大的發展中國家，有責任推動建立更加均衡的全球經濟治理模式。

"The birth of the G20 has broken the myth of the G7 and allows for the exploration into diverse paths of growth," he said.
“G20打破了G7的舊邏輯，考慮到要探索不同的發展道路，”朱教授說道。

According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, emerging and developing economies are home to 85 percent of the world's population, accounting for almost 60 percent of global GDP and contributing to more than 80 percent of global growth since the 2008 financial crisis. China alone has contributed 35 percent to global growth in the past five years.
國際貨幣基金組織的數據顯示，新興經濟體以及發展中國家的人口占世界總人口的85％，GDP佔比接近全球的60%；自2008年金融危機以來，這些國家對全球經濟增長的貢獻率超過了80％。過去五年，中國對全球經濟增長的貢獻率爲35％。

The view of China's growing role in global economic governance is widely shared.
“中國在全球經濟治理中發揮着越來越重要的作用，這是大家都認同的。

"There is probably some means for building new institutions given the rise of Asia and rise of China," said Tim Harcourt of the University of New South Wales in Australia. "I think in some ways the G20 can play that role."
“隨着中國及亞洲的崛起，我們也許能夠找到建立新體系的方法，”澳大利亞新南威爾士大學的提姆•哈考特教授說，“我認爲在某種程度上，G20就能發揮這樣的角色。”

China is now in a position to assert its influence in the management of the global economy, according to a report that was released in March by the London-based Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Other countries are ready to learn from China's experiences in transforming its economy, it added.
英國皇家國際事務研究所——倫敦查塔姆研究所3月發佈的報告顯示，如今中國在全球經濟治理中正發揮着自身的影響力。報告還指出，其他國家也非常願意借鑑中國在經濟轉型發展中的經驗。

帶你瞭解“二十國集團”

對於二十國集團，我們可能聽過很多次，但卻不一定了解其具體的成員組成以及運行方式。下面，我們就來簡要介紹一下。

二十國集團(the Group of Twenty, G20)由19個國家(阿根廷Argentina, 澳大利亞Australia, 巴西Brazil, 加拿大Canada, 中國China, 法國France, 德國Germany, 印度India, 印度尼西亞Indonesia, 意大利Italy, 日本Japan, 韓國South Korea, 墨西哥Mexico, 俄羅斯Russia, 沙特阿拉伯Saudi Arabia, 南非South Africa, 土耳其Turkey, 英國United Kingdom, 美國United States)和歐盟(the European Union)構成，聚集了世界主要發達和新興經濟體的領導人，共同應對全球經濟面臨的挑戰。爲保證二十國集團的討論能夠代表衆多國家的利益，每年二十國集團的主席都邀請嘉賓國(guest countries)參加包括領導人峯會在內的本年度會議。

二十國集團經濟體的領導人每年召開一次會議，而二十國集團的財政部長與央行行長每年會召開數次會議，商討提振全球經濟(strengthen the global economy)、改革全球金融機構(reform international financial institutions)、改進金融規章(improve financial regulation)以及在每個成員經濟體實施必要的經濟改革(implement the key economic reforms that are needed in each member economy)的方式。

二十國集團經濟體第一次會議是在1999年亞洲金融危機(Asian financial crisis)之後，以財政部長與央行行長會議的形式召開的。2008年，二十國集團經濟體領導人第一次會議召開， 該組織在應對全球金融危機(responding to the global financial crisis)方面發揮了重要作用。

二十國集團得到各國際組織提供的分析和建議支持，這些組織包括金融穩定委員會(the Financial Stability Board)、國際勞工組織(the International Labour Organisation)、國際貨幣基金(the International Monetary Fund)、經濟合作與發展組織(Economic Co-operation and Development)、聯合國(the United Nations)、世界銀行(the World Bank)和世界貿易組織(the World Trade Organization)。這些組織的代表受邀參加二十國集團的主要會議。