印度製造不可能完全取代中國製造

PUNE, India — Play-Doh, Monopoly and practically all of Hasbro's other toys were made in China for decades. Now, Hasbro is changing course.

印度浦那——幾十年來，培樂多(Play-Doh)、大富翁(Monopoly)，以及孩之寶(Hasbro)的幾乎所有其他玩具都在中國生產。現在，孩之寶開始改弦更張。

While the company still sources expensive, complex toys like the electronic FurReal Friends from China, Hasbro has contracts for production in Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam and Mexico. It has moved most aggressively into India, where Hasbro now buys from several sizable factories, and another is planned.

雖然孩之寶旗下較爲昂貴、複雜的玩具，比如電子的“親親寵物”(FurReal Friends)系列，仍然在中國加工製造，但該公司的生產訂單也發往了土耳其、印度尼西亞、越南和墨西哥。它進軍最積極的地方是印度，孩之寶現在已經在印度有了幾家相當大的工廠，而且還計劃再開一家。

Multinationals around the globe have begun to look seriously at manufacturing in India, with its plentiful and inexpensive labor pool. But the investment doesn't mean doing business in India is getting easier. Rather, it is a sign that doing business in China is getting more difficult.

世界各地的跨國公司已經開始認真看待印度製造業，那裏有充足的廉價勞動力資源。但投資印度並不意味着在該國開展業務變容易了，而是顯示出在中國做生意越來越難了。

The Hong Kong-based Musical Group decided to build the latest Hasbro factory in India after facing severe labor shortages and soaring wages at its main factory in southern China. But Musical, like many companies, is running headlong into India's bureaucratic morass over land purchases, and the project is months behind schedule.

美好集團(Musical Group)總部設在香港，其在中國南部的旗艦工廠遭遇了嚴重的勞動力短缺，而且工人工資飆升，於是該集團決定在印度修建最新的孩之寶工廠。但是和許多公司一樣，該集團在購買土地的問題上也陷入了印度的官僚泥沼，項目進度落後了數月之久。

“We've had a very tough negotiation with the local government,” said Christopher Tse, the managing director of the Musical Group, which for nearly 35 years did almost all its manufacturing in China. “It takes more time than I expected.”

“我們與當地政府的談判非常艱難，”美好集團董事總經理謝鴻強(Christopher Tse)說，“花的時間比我預期的長。”該集團近35年來所有的製造加工環節，幾乎都是在中國內地進行的。

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, the situation presents a political and economic challenge.

對於印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)來說，這種情況是政治和經濟上的一個挑戰。

More than a year ago, Modi, wearing a traditional bright yellow jacket and standing below an immense logo of an Indian tiger, unveiled an ambitious effort to ramp up manufacturing. The “Make in India” campaign promised to reduce bureaucracy and improve infrastructure, paving the way for big multinationals and other foreign investors. It was a cornerstone of his candidacy.

一年多前，莫迪穿着亮黃色的傳統上衣，站在一個巨大的印度虎標誌下，推出了一項雄心勃勃的壯大印度製造業的計劃。“印度製造”(Make in India)計劃承諾削減官僚手續，改善基礎設施，爲大型跨國公司和其他外國投資者鋪平道路。這是莫迪競選政綱的核心。

Since then, almost nothing has gone as planned.

自那時之後，幾乎沒有哪一項目標在按計劃進行。

Progress in improving the country's inadequate roads, rail lines and ports has been slow. Corruption remains pernicious. Urban air pollution is even worse in India than in China, and could deteriorate further as more factories are built.

改善該國的道路、鐵路和港口不足的行動進展緩慢。腐敗仍然猖獗。隨着更多的工廠建成，印度城市空氣污染的程度甚至變得比中國還糟糕，而且可能會進一步惡化。

Plans to rewrite labor and land laws, and to overhaul state taxes, have stalled in Parliament. And an effort by Modi to bypass Parliament with temporary executive orders has run into trouble as well.

重寫勞動法和土地法，大幅調整地方稅的計劃也在議會裏遭遇阻撓。莫迪想繞過議會頒佈臨時行政命令，但也遇到了麻煩。

Modi's most controversial but potentially far-reaching executive order — making it easier to convert farmland into factory sites — expired on Aug. 31. He chose not to renew it. The ordinance had become a political liability in state elections, as farmers feared that it might be used to push them off their land.

莫迪最具爭議性，但有可能帶來影響深遠的行政命令，允許將農田更容易地轉變爲工廠用地，它已經在今年8月31日到期，莫迪決定不再延期。這個行政命令在各邦的選舉中已經成了一個政治包袱，農民擔心有人利用它來徵收自己的耕地。

“Ease of doing business is still a work in progress,” said India's finance minister, Arun Jaitley, adding that state governments were starting to reform land and labor laws.

“經商環境仍待完善，”財政部長阿倫·賈特里(Arun Jaitley)表示。他補充說，各邦政府已經開始修改土地法和勞動法。

Yet, slowly and a little unpredictably, India's manufacturing sector is starting to attract overseas investment.

然而，有點出人預料的是，印度製造業已經開始慢慢吸引海外投資了。

Foxconn, the world's largest contract manufacturer of smartphones and other electronics, which has most of its factories in China, agreed in August to open 10 to 12 plants in western India by 2020, employing as many as 50,000 workers. A week earlier, General Motors announced plans to invest $1 billion to develop new car models for the Indian market and nearly double the size of its 7-year-old factory on the outskirts of Pune.

富士康(Foxconn)是全球最大的智能手機和其他電子產品的代工製造商，其大部分工廠都設在中國。今年8月，該公司表示到2020年前，將在印度西部開設10到12家工廠，僱傭多達5萬名工人。這個計劃公佈一週前，通用汽車(General Motors)宣佈計劃投資10億美元，在印度市場開發新車型，並將其在浦那市郊有7年曆史的老廠，擴大將近一倍。

Indian officials see manufacturing as essential to their country's future. They have 10 million young workers a year joining the labor force and few alternatives to create enough jobs.

印度官員認爲，製造業對該國的未來發展至關重要。印度每年有1000萬青年工人加入勞動力大軍，幾乎沒有其他方法來創造足夠的就業機會。

Devendra Fadnavis, an ally of Modi who is the chief minister of Maharashtra state that includes Mumbai and Pune, has been aggressively marketing his state's huge labor force in trips to China and elsewhere. “We have the human resources — if we can liberate them, we can pioneer the industrial production for the entire world,” Fadnavis said.

德文德拉·法德納維斯(Devendra Fadnavis)是莫迪的盟友，也是孟買和浦那所在的馬哈拉施特拉邦的首席部長。他前往中國和其他國家時，一直積極宣傳該邦巨大的勞動力資源。“我們有人力資源——如果我們能夠釋放這些資源的潛力，就可以成爲整個世界工業生產的先鋒，”法德納維斯說。

The pitch has worked. Foreign direct investment in India is up 46 percent over the last two years. It is down 1.3 percent in China, although it shows signs of a modest rebound lately.

這種宣傳發揮了效果。在過去兩年，印度獲得的外國直接投資增長了46%。而中國卻減少了1.3%，不過最近出現了小幅反彈的跡象。

The recent flood of foreign investment is helping propel India, which is expected to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world this year. The International Monetary Fund estimated this month that India's economy would increase 7.3 percent in 2015, compared with 6.8 percent this year in China.

最近涌入的外國投資正在幫助推動印度增長。印度預計會成爲今年全世界增長最快的主要經濟體。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)本月預測，2015年印度經濟增速會達到7.3%，而中國今年預計僅爲6.8%。

In many ways, India is benefiting from the challenges facing China.

在很多方面，印度都受益於中國面臨的挑戰。

Blue-collar wages in China have more than quintupled in the last decade and companies face worker shortages despite economic weakness. “If you want to hire 1,000 workers, you only find 600, and the turnover will be 15 or 20 percent a month,” said Tse of Musical Group, the Hasbro supplier.

過去十年裏，中國藍領工人的工資至少翻了兩番。儘管經濟疲軟，但企業卻面臨着用工荒。“如果想招1000人，只能找到600人，並且每個月的人員流動率會達到15%到20%，”美好集團的謝鴻強說。該集團是孩之寶(Hasbro)的供應商。

Some multinationals also worry that China is becoming a politically riskier place to do business. Such concerns have been heightened by the country's growing show of force, like the sight of thousands of goose-stepping soldiers parading through Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, or the rapid construction of military-grade airfields this year on hastily built artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea.

一些跨國公司還擔心，在中國做生意麪臨的政治風險越來越大。中國日漸頻繁地炫耀武力的做法，也加劇了這種擔心。比如9月3日，成千上萬名士兵踢着正步走過天安門廣場，又比如在有爭議的南海，中國今年在倉促建成的人工島上，迅速修建了軍用級別的機場。

By comparison, India offers a stable democracy and low wages. Even skilled factory workers here in Pune, sometimes called the Detroit of India, earn about $300 a month, half of Chinese wages.

相比之下，印度有穩定的民主制度，且工資水平低。浦那有時會被稱作印度的底特律，在那裏，工廠熟練工的月工資也只有大約300美元，是中國工資的一半。

Maintaining its edge won't be easy for India.

但對印度來說，保持優勢並非易事。

For one, India needs to significantly upgrade its roads, ports and other infrastructure. Musical Group initially considered building a factory about 200 kilometers (120 miles) outside Kolkata, formerly Calcutta. India's poor roads meant the trip would take four hours.

其中一個問題是，印度需要大幅升級道路、港口和其他基礎設施。美好集團起初考慮在離加爾各答市區約200公里的地方建廠。但印度糟糕的路況意味着，這段路要耗時四個小時。

“In China, 200 kilometers is two hours,” said Tse. He ultimately decided to seek costlier land a few miles from the port, only to encounter slow-moving local officials.

“在中國，200公里只要兩小時，”謝鴻強說。他最終決定去找距離港口幾公里遠的高價土地，卻又遭遇了效率低下的地方官員。

India is also trying to expand manufacturing just as global trade stalls. A big export push by India could prompt a backlash in other countries, said Raghuram Rajan, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India and former chief economic adviser to the Indian government.

印度還試圖在全球貿易失速之際擴大製造業。印度儲備銀行(Reserve Bank of India)行長、印度政府前首席經濟顧問拉古拉姆·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)稱，印度大力推動出口可能會招致其他國家的強烈反對。

“To expect another China to come in without any political reaction would be naive,” he said in an interview in Mumbai. “We're going to have a much tougher fight for market share.”

“如果指望成爲另一箇中國，卻又不在政治上遭遇任何反彈，那就太天真了，”他在孟買接受採訪時說。“要想贏得市場份額，我們還要打一場艱苦得多的仗。”