俄羅斯央行大幅加息欲拯救盧布

MOSCOW — Russia has a new enemy: the currency markets.

莫斯科——俄羅斯的敵人又多了一個：貨幣市場。

Russia’s government is in the middle of an all-out fight to preserve the value of the ruble in the face of plummeting oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. In the boldest move yet to stanch the bleeding, the Central Bank of Russia announced a stunning interest rate increase in the middle of the night.

面臨石油價格跳水和烏克蘭危機引發的西方制裁，俄羅斯政府使出了渾身解數，意圖力保盧布。爲了阻止盧布大貶值，俄羅斯中央銀行連夜採取了一個最大膽的措施，宣佈大幅上調利率。

Its main deposit rate is now 17 percent, up from 10.5 percent when Russian banks closed for business on Monday. The rate increase, one of the largest ever announced by the central bank, echoes the drastic measures taken during the 1998 crisis when Russia defaulted on its debt and devalued the ruble.

俄羅斯現在的存款利率是17%，週一俄羅斯銀行下班前，利率還是10.5%。上調利率的做法令人想起1998年危機時俄羅斯債務違約和盧布貶值後採取的激進措施。

The question is whether the move — announced on the central bank’s website at 1 a.m. in Russia — will appease the markets. If it doesn’t, investors may view the rate increase as a sign of increasing disarray.

這個決定由俄羅斯央行凌晨1點在其網站上宣佈。問題是，此舉是否將安撫市場？如果不能，投資者可能會視利率上調爲形勢惡化的信號。

Some economists are concerned that Russia is now stuck in the quagmire of stagflation, or high inflation and low growth. The government expects inflation of 10 percent or more by the end of this year and for the country to fall into a recession next year.

一些經濟學家擔心，俄羅斯可能陷入了滯脹的泥潭，高通脹與低增長並存。政府預期截至年底，通脹將達10%或更高，明年經濟可能陷入衰退。

In a worrying sign, Russians have been buying up big-ticket items as the ruble depreciates, converting savings into consumer goods lest their savings become worthless. Appliance stores in Moscow have seen runs on refrigerators, washing machines and televisions.

有一個令人擔憂的信號，隨着盧布貶值，俄羅斯人已經在搶購耐用商品，把積蓄轉化爲消費品，以免存款變得一文不值。莫斯科的家電商場已經出現了冰箱、洗衣機和電視的搶購風。

The strategy behind the rate increase is straightforward. The central bank, led by Elvira Nabiullina, is hoping that the large rate increase will encourage Russian individuals, companies and banks to hold savings in rubles, rather than moving them into dollars. It is also aimed at helping to help keep inflation in check.

這次利率上調的戰略很清楚。納比烏里娜(Elvira Nabiullina)領導的俄羅斯央行希望大幅上調利率會鼓勵俄羅斯個人、公司和銀行繼續持有盧布存款，而不是轉向美元。同時這也是爲了控制通脹。

“This decision is aimed at limiting substantially increased ruble depreciation risks and inflation risk,” the central bank said in its statement.

央行在聲明中說：“這個決定是爲了限制大幅增加的盧布貶值風險和通脹風險。”

But the surprise rate increase also underscores the limited options for Russian policy makers. The central bank has spent at least $75 billion this year to prop up the ruble, with little effect.

但這次突然加息也顯示了俄羅斯決策者手上可用方案是多麼有限。央行今年花了至少750億美元力挺盧布，但收效甚微。

The ruble plummeted yet again on Monday, by more than 10 percent, to about 64 per dollar. The ruble has lost nearly half its value since the start of 2014.

週一，盧布再次貶值，幅度超10%，達到了64盧布兌1美元。2014年初至今，盧布貶值了近一半。

Aleksei L. Kudrin, a former Russian finance minister who is widely credited with having steered Russia through the 2008 financial crisis by persuading President Vladimir V. Putin to strengthen sovereign reserves, said that uneven policy making was adding to the erosion of confidence. “The fall of the ruble and the stock market is not only a reaction to lower oil prices and sanctions, but also distrust in the government’s economic measures,” Mr. Kudrin posted on Twitter.

俄羅斯前財政部長阿里克塞·庫德林(Aleksei L. Kudrin)被廣泛認爲是幫助俄羅斯度過2008年金融危機的功臣，曾說服普京加強主權儲備。他說，不平衡決策加劇了信心的流失。他在Twitter上寫道：“盧布貶值股市下跌不只是對石油價格下跌和制裁做出的反應，也體現了對政府經濟措施的不信任。”

The central bank is in a difficult position. The hope is that by stabilizing the value of the currency, the interest rate increase will reduce the sense of financial panic and rapid outflows of money. Russians have pulled more than $100 billion in capital from the country this year.

央行的處境很困難。它希望通過穩定貨幣降低金融恐慌和減少貨幣外逃。今年，俄羅斯已經有1000億美元以上的資本外逃。

But the increase could also choke off growth in a Russian economy already reeling from falling oil prices. Oil and natural gas make up about 60 percent of Russia’s export earnings.

但加息也可能扼制增長。俄羅斯經濟已經因油價下跌受挫，而石油和天然氣構成了俄羅斯出口所得的60%。

Earlier Monday, the Russian central bank said it expected the country’s economy to contract 4.5 percent in 2015 if oil prices averaged $60 a barrel. Oil is now hovering around that level.

週一早間，俄羅斯央行宣佈，如果油價跌至平均60美元一桶，預計本國經濟在2015年將衰退4.5%。目前油價已經跌至該水平階段。

The central bank had been striving to keep rates low to bolster business activity and growth. It shifted to raising rates only last spring after the Ukraine crisis put additional pressure on the ruble.

俄羅斯央行此前一直努力壓低利率以刺激商業活動和經濟增長。直到上個春季烏克蘭危機讓盧布經受更多壓力後，央行才轉而提高利率。

Since then, the central bank has steadily increased rates in relatively small increments. Just last Thursday, it increased rates to 10.5 percent, from 9.5 percent.

自那時起，俄羅斯央行就在逐漸地小規模加息。上週四，它又宣佈將利率從9.5%提高到10.5%。

The dead-of-night action seemed to catch even seasoned market watchers by surprise. Russian news agencies close to the government described it in unusually breathless terms.

這次半夜宣佈降息甚至讓一些經驗豐富的市場觀察者都吃了一驚。接近政府的俄羅斯新聞媒體播報這條新聞時，語氣都是格外少見的急促。

Noting the “rapid collapse of the ruble,” the Interfax news agency declared that the central bank had gone to “emergency measures, leaving far behind the most radical assumptions of analysts.”

提及“盧布的迅速崩潰時”，俄羅斯國際文傳電訊社(Interfax news agency)稱央行已經開始採用“緊急措施，分析師們此前甚至最激進的論斷都已被遠遠超過。”

Analysts said that the rate increase might be a last-ditch move by the Russian government to try to contain the drop in the currency without adopting controls on the flow of capital or other more extensive measures to keep money in the country.

分析師認爲，加息可能是政府在不採取控制措施阻止資本外流或動用其他把錢留在國內的大舉措的情況下，推出的挽救貨幣貶值的最後一招。

“If today’s measures fail to stem the ruble rout, there is a high probability that policy will veer in a more unorthodox direction,” said Alexander Kliment, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, in a research note. “Some top advisers to Putin are openly hostile to rate hikes.”

“如果今天的措施還不能阻止盧布崩盤，政策非常可能會轉到一個非常規的方向，”歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)分析師亞歷山大·克里門特在一份研究簡報中說。“一些普京的高級顧問已經公開反對利率飆升。”