中國投資增長降至近13年低位
Chinese investment grew at its slowest pace in more than a decade in the first 10 months of the year, while factory output missed expectations, adding to pressure on authorities to adopt fresh measures to boost the economy.
今年頭10個月中國投資增長是10多年來最慢的，工業產出增長也遜於預期，這給政府帶來更大壓力，要求其採取新的措施以提振經濟。The data will add to fears that weak investment will lead to a sharper-than-expected deceleration in China’s overall economy. But economists say slower Growth is inevitable as China shifts to a growth model in which consumption plays a larger role. The challenge for policy makers is to ensure that the investment slowdown is gradual enough to avoid a spike in unemployment and acute stress in the financial system.
這些數據會令人們更加擔心，投資疲弱將導致中國整體經濟出現比預期更爲劇烈的減速。但經濟學家表示，隨着中國轉向一種讓消費扮演更重要角色的經濟增長模式，增長放緩是不可避免的。政策制定者面臨的挑戰是，要確保投資放慢的幅度足夠平緩，以避免失業激增和讓金融體系一下子承受很大壓力。
Fixed-asset investment grew 15.9 per cent in the year to October compared with a year earlier, the weakest pace since December 2001, dragged down by a slowdown in property investment amid a continuing decline in home sales.
受房地產投資放緩和住宅銷售持續下降拖累，今年頭10個月全國固定資產投資同比增長15.9%，這是2001年12月以來最弱的增幅。
Factory output grew at 7.7 per cent in October, below expectations of 8.0 per cent and the second-lowest monthly reading since 2009. Only August’s reading of 6.9 per cent was lower.
10月份規模以上工業增加值同比增長7.7%，低於8.0%的預期。這是自2009年以來第二疲弱的月同比增幅，只有今年8月份6.9%的同比增幅比它低。But there were signs the property market may have bottomed. Year-on-year sales fell 1.3 per cent in October, much slower than the 10.3 per cent decline in September. Local governments in most major cities have relaxed limits on mortgage lending put in place around 2010 when prices were soaring.
但有一些跡象顯示，房地產市場可能已經觸底。10月份銷售額同比下降1.3%，比9月份10.3%的同比降幅平緩得多。多數大城市的地方政府已放鬆了2010年前後房價飆升時出臺的房貸限制。“This data is in line with our view of the economic outlook: growth momentum remains subdued, although not alarmingly so,” Louis Kujis, chief greater China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, said in a note.
“這批數據符合我們對經濟前景的看法：增長勢頭仍然疲弱，儘管並不令人擔憂，”蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)首席大中華區經濟學家高路易(Louis Kuijs)在一份簡報中寫道。However, the weak headline data are likely to intensify debate over whether more aggressive easing steps are necessary. The central bank has adopted a series of targeted measures this year, mainly by offering loans to select banks. The economic planning agency recently approved a range of infrastructure projects, including railways, according to state media.
不過，疲弱的整體數據很可能會加劇關於是否有必要採取更大力度放鬆措施的辯論。中國央行今年採取了一系列有針對性的措施，主要是向選定的銀行提供貸款。官方媒體稱，經濟規劃機構最近批准了一系列基礎設施項目，包括鐵路。But the People’s Bank of China has refrained from stronger medicine such as a cut in benchmark interest rates or in banks’ reserve ratio requirements. Some analysts say more help is needed.
但是，中國央行迄今還沒有開出效力更強的藥物，如下調基準利率或銀行存款準備金率。一些分析師說，有必要出臺更多支撐措施。“Growth slowed despite further policy easing, which suggests the headwinds from the property market correction, severe overcapacity in many upstream industries and an overleveraged corporate sector are very strong,” Nomura economists led by Chang Chunhua wrote on Thursday.
“儘管政策進一步放鬆，經濟增長還是放緩了。這似乎表明，樓市回調、諸多上游產業的產能嚴重過剩、以及企業部門槓桿過高等因素形成的逆風很強，”野村(Nomura)經濟學家常春華等人週四寫道。Nomura forecasts an RRR cut before the end of the year and another in each quarter of 2015.
野村預測，中國央行將在今年年底前下調一次存款準備金率，2015年的每個季度將分別下調一次。Advocates of the current light-touch approach say a gradual slowdown, especially in investment, is necessary and desirable in order to reduce industrial overcapacity and draw down unsold inventory in housing and basic commodity sectors.
當前這種“微刺激”方式的倡導者表示，逐步放緩、尤其是投資的逐步放緩，是必要和可取的，這將有助於減少工業產能過剩、消耗掉住房和基本商品行業的未售出庫存。“We expect the response of economic policy to remain restrained. Senior policy makers emphasise that as long as the labour market holds up, they can accept GDP growth falling somewhat below the government’s target of 7.5 per cent this year,” said Mr Kujis.
“我們預計經濟政策迴應將保持克制。高層政策制定者強調，只要勞動力市場保持穩定，他們就能接受國內生產總值(GDP)增速降至今年增長7.5%的政府目標的下方，”高路易表示。China’s economy grew at 7.3 per cent in the third quarter, the weakest pace in five years.
中國經濟在第三季度增長7.3%，是五年來最弱的。
