新探明石油儲量降至逾60年來最低水平

Discoveries of new oil reserves have dropped to their lowest level for More than 60 years, pointing to potential supply shortages in the next decade.

新探明石油儲量已降至逾60年來最低水平，這預示着未來10年可能出現供給短缺。

Oil explorers found 2.8bn barrels of crude and related liquids last year, according to IHS, a consultancy. This is the lowest annual volume recorded since 1954, reflecting a slowdown in exploration activity as hard-pressed oil companies seek to conserve cash.

諮詢公司IHS的數據顯示，石油勘探企業去年新發現的原油及相關液態能源爲28億桶。這是自1954年以來錄得的最低年探明儲量，反映出隨着拮据的石油公司設法節約現金，石油勘探活動正逐步放緩。

Most of the new reserves that have been found are offshore in deep water, where oilfields take an of average seven years to bring into production, so the declining rate of exploration success points to reduced supplies from the mid-2020s.

大多數新發現的石油儲量都處於海洋深水區，投產平均需要7年時間，所以，探明成功率的下降預示着，從本世紀20年代中期開始，石油供給將會減少。

The dwindling rate of discoveries does not mean that the world is running out of oil; in recent years most of the increase in global production has come from existing fields, not new finds, according to Wood Mackenzie, another consultancy. Additionally, there has been a predominance of gas, rather than oil, in recent finds.

另一家諮詢公司伍德麥肯茲(Wood Mackenzie)認爲，新發現石油儲量速度的下降並不意味着全球石油正在耗盡；近年來，全球石油產量增長的大部分來自已有油田，而非新發現油田。此外，在新近發現的儲量中，佔絕大多數的是天然氣，而非石油。

But if the rate of oil discoveries does not improve, it will create a shortfall in global supplies of about 4.5m barrels per day by 2035, Wood Mackenzie said.

伍德麥肯茲表示，如果石油勘探的速度不提高，到2035年將造成全球每天約450萬桶的供給缺口。

That could mean higher oil prices, and make the world more reliant on onshore oilfields where the resource base is already known, such as US shale.

這或將意味着油價上漲，並使全球更依賴已知資源儲量的陸上油田，比如美國的頁岩。